When holding the Vanguard Small-Cap (VB) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~21 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 66 months (from April 2006 to September 2011).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 67 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Vanguard Small-Cap (VB) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-44.49%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+10.79% |
+87.88%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
26.38%
62 out of 235 |
-44.50%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+8.94% |
+83.09%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
30.64%
72 out of 235 |
-29.15%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+10.04% |
+52.95%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
20.63%
46 out of 223 |
-30.58%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+6.96% |
+49.74%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
24.22%
54 out of 223 |
-17.97%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+9.12% |
+33.21%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
12.32%
26 out of 211 |
-19.72%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+7.09% |
+30.10%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
20.85%
44 out of 211 |
-10.25%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+9.75% |
+28.49%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
8.54%
17 out of 199 |
-12.47%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+7.20% |
+25.61%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
17.09%
34 out of 199 |
+0.36%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2020 |
+9.30% |
+29.11%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
0.00%
0 out of 187 |
-1.47%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2010 |
+6.86% |
+26.50%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
6.42%
12 out of 187 |
+1.92%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
+9.91% |
+25.38%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 175 |
-0.28%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
+7.49% |
+23.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
0.57%
1 out of 175 |
+4.56%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2011 |
+9.67% |
+18.92%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 163 |
+2.05%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2011 |
+7.32% |
+17.08%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 163 |
+6.18%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2012 |
+9.83% |
+20.49%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 151 |
+3.54%
Jun 2015 - May 2023 |
+7.25% |
+18.44%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 151 |
+5.89%
Feb 2007 - Jan 2016 |
+9.85% |
+19.32%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 139 |
+3.57%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+7.36% |
+17.22%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 139 |
+6.32%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2016 |
+9.74% |
+18.10%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 127 |
+4.10%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+7.33% |
+16.06%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 127 |
+7.35%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2016 |
+9.94% |
+16.06%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 115 |
+4.99%
May 2014 - Apr 2025 |
+7.39% |
+13.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 115 |
+6.98%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
+9.78% |
+18.16%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 103 |
+5.30%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
+7.67% |
+16.07%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 103 |
+5.44%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+10.04% |
+16.73%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 91 |
+3.60%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+7.63% |
+14.15%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 91 |
+5.54%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+9.95% |
+15.07%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 79 |
+3.62%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+7.74% |
+12.24%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 79 |
+6.77%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+9.68% |
+14.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 67 |
+4.72%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+7.34% |
+12.06%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 67 |
+7.24%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+9.65% |
+14.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 55 |
+4.69%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+7.25% |
+11.72%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 55 |
+7.57%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+8.74% |
+10.10%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 43 |
+4.94%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+6.12% |
+7.65%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 43 |
+7.87%
May 2007 - Apr 2025 |
+8.72% |
+9.32%
Aug 2006 - Jul 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 31 |
+5.25%
May 2007 - Apr 2025 |
+6.10% |
+6.71%
Aug 2006 - Jul 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 31 |
+7.96%
May 2006 - Apr 2025 |
+9.01% |
+9.64%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 19 |
+5.33%
May 2006 - Apr 2025 |
+6.34% |
+6.97%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 19 |
+8.92%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2025 |
+9.04% |
+9.51%
Feb 2005 - Jan 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 7 |
+6.21%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2025 |
+6.33% |
+6.76%
Feb 2005 - Jan 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 7 |
Vanguard Small-Cap (VB) ETF: Historical Returns