Vanguard Small-Cap Growth (VBK): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 2005 - June 2025 (~21 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth (VBK) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~21 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 55 months (from January 2005 to July 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 56 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTH (VBK) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 2005 - 30 June 2025 (20 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 2005 - 30 June 2025 (~21 years)
All Data
(2005/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTH (VBK) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 2005 - 30 June 2025 (~21 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-43.98%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+12.17% +83.58%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021
24.26%
57 out of 235
-43.99%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+10.00% +78.90%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021
28.09%
66 out of 235
-26.92%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+11.04% +54.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
21.08%
47 out of 223
-28.40%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+8.02% +51.34%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
24.66%
55 out of 223
-17.05%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+9.58% +34.67%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
18.01%
38 out of 211
-18.81%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+7.37% +31.53%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
25.59%
54 out of 211
-9.11%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+9.13% +28.96%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
10.05%
20 out of 199
-11.36%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+7.50% +26.06%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
18.09%
36 out of 199
+1.18%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2010
+9.05% +30.00%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
0.00%
0 out of 187
-0.93%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2010
+7.10% +27.37%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
2.14%
4 out of 187
+3.12%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011
+10.17% +25.47%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 175
+0.89%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011
+8.20% +23.37%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 175
+5.66%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2011
+10.29% +18.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
0.00%
0 out of 163
+2.97%
May 2018 - Apr 2025
+8.40% +16.73%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
0.00%
0 out of 163
+6.44%
Jul 2014 - Jun 2022
+9.98% +19.75%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017
0.00%
0 out of 151
+3.50%
Jun 2015 - May 2023
+7.63% +17.72%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017
0.00%
0 out of 151
+6.15%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+10.09% +19.36%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
0.00%
0 out of 139
+3.14%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+7.83% +17.26%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
0.00%
0 out of 139
+6.26%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+9.83% +18.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
0.00%
0 out of 127
+3.39%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+7.48% +16.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
0.00%
0 out of 127
+7.43%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2025
+9.63% +17.12%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
0.00%
0 out of 115
+4.51%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2025
+7.39% +15.03%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
0.00%
0 out of 115
+8.06%
Jan 2007 - Dec 2018
+10.01% +19.78%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
0.00%
0 out of 103
+5.69%
May 2011 - Apr 2023
+7.61% +17.66%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
0.00%
0 out of 103
+7.07%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
+10.33% +16.90%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 91
+5.20%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
+7.96% +14.46%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2021
0.00%
0 out of 91
+6.83%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
+10.80% +14.72%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 79
+4.89%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
+8.40% +11.89%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 79
+7.47%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+10.36% +14.85%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 67
+4.98%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+8.15% +11.98%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 67
+6.93%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+9.62% +14.44%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 55
+4.39%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+7.21% +11.56%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 55
+7.71%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+8.81% +10.98%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2021
0.00%
0 out of 43
+5.08%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+6.24% +8.51%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2021
0.00%
0 out of 43
+7.98%
May 2007 - Apr 2025
+8.88% +9.63%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2024
0.00%
0 out of 31
+5.36%
May 2007 - Apr 2025
+6.20% +6.93%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2024
0.00%
0 out of 31
+7.95%
May 2006 - Apr 2025
+9.14% +9.78%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2024
0.00%
0 out of 19
+5.32%
May 2006 - Apr 2025
+6.44% +7.11%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2024
0.00%
0 out of 19
+9.00%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2025
+9.27% +9.74%
Feb 2005 - Jan 2025
0.00%
0 out of 7
+6.28%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2025
+6.55% +6.97%
Feb 2005 - Jan 2025
0.00%
0 out of 7
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