Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 2010 to February 2024 (~14 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 29 February 2024

Holding the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~14 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 47 months (from September 2019 to July 2023).

This means that every rolling period of 48 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 2014 - 29 February 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 2010 - 29 February 2024 (~14 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -5.04 10/2021
09/2022
0.94$ -0.40 0.99$ 0.61 1.00$ 3.57 1.03$ 5.49 04/2019
03/2020
1.05$ 4.22 29.36%
2Y -2.62 11/2020
10/2022
0.94$ -1.50 0.97$ 0.61 1.01$ 2.71 1.05$ 4.17 05/2018
04/2020
1.08$ 0.55 25.77%
3Y -1.20 07/2020
06/2023
0.96$ -0.51 0.98$ 0.70 1.02$ 2.61 1.08$ 2.83 03/2018
02/2021
1.08$ -0.22 22.35%
4Y 0.10 07/2019
06/2023
1.00$ 0.40 1.01$ 1.18 1.04$ 2.00 1.08$ 2.12 12/2016
11/2020
1.08$ 0.23 0.00%
5Y 0.49 11/2017
10/2022
1.02$ 0.85 1.04$ 1.25 1.06$ 1.75 1.09$ 1.84 01/2016
12/2020
1.09$ 1.12 0.00%
6Y 0.43 11/2016
10/2022
1.02$ 0.68 1.04$ 1.30 1.08$ 1.62 1.10$ 1.66 08/2014
07/2020
1.10$ 1.30 0.00%
7Y 0.50 10/2015
09/2022
1.03$ 0.63 1.04$ 0.85 1.06$ 1.40 1.10$ 1.44 04/2014
03/2021
1.10$ 1.08 0.00%
8Y 0.52 11/2014
10/2022
1.04$ 0.59 1.04$ 0.77 1.06$ 0.93 1.07$ 1.08 01/2016
12/2023
1.08$ 0.98 0.00%
9Y 0.58 03/2014
02/2023
1.05$ 0.68 1.06$ 0.76 1.07$ 0.98 1.09$ 1.02 01/2015
12/2023
1.09$ 0.98 0.00%
10Y 0.93 03/2014
02/2024
1.09$ 0.93 1.09$ 0.93 1.09$ 0.93 1.09$ 0.93 03/2014
02/2024
1.09$ 0.93 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -12.24 10/2021
09/2022
0.87$ -6.79 0.93$ -1.02 0.98$ 1.71 1.01$ 4.92 05/2019
04/2020
1.04$ 1.47 63.30%
2Y -8.98 11/2020
10/2022
0.82$ -7.33 0.85$ -1.20 0.97$ 0.47 1.00$ 2.98 06/2018
05/2020
1.06$ -3.62 71.13%
3Y -6.58 07/2020
06/2023
0.81$ -5.44 0.84$ -1.14 0.96$ 0.62 1.01$ 1.01 02/2018
01/2021
1.03$ -5.44 78.82%
4Y -4.31 10/2019
09/2023
0.83$ -3.74 0.85$ -0.98 0.96$ 0.00 0.99$ 0.43 06/2016
05/2020
1.01$ -4.12 84.93%
5Y -3.23 11/2017
10/2022
0.84$ -2.94 0.86$ -0.91 0.95$ -0.12 0.99$ 0.25 06/2015
05/2020
1.01$ -2.86 91.80%
6Y -3.00 11/2016
10/2022
0.83$ -2.87 0.83$ -1.88 0.89$ 0.05 1.00$ 0.33 06/2014
05/2020
1.02$ -2.28 83.67%
7Y -2.85 03/2016
02/2023
0.81$ -2.68 0.82$ -2.30 0.84$ -0.58 0.96$ -0.19 03/2014
02/2021
0.98$ -2.30 100.00%
8Y -2.49 03/2015
02/2023
0.81$ -2.39 0.82$ -2.28 0.83$ -1.87 0.85$ -1.33 03/2014
02/2022
0.89$ -2.32 100.00%
9Y -2.15 03/2014
02/2023
0.82$ -2.10 0.82$ -2.05 0.82$ -1.95 0.83$ -1.93 04/2014
03/2023
0.83$ -2.06 100.00%
10Y -1.79 03/2014
02/2024
0.83$ -1.79 0.83$ -1.79 0.83$ -1.79 0.83$ -1.79 03/2014
02/2024
0.83$ -1.79 100.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -5.04 10/2021
09/2022
0.94$ -0.12 0.99$ 0.60 1.00$ 3.04 1.03$ 5.49 04/2019
03/2020
1.05$ 4.22 20.75%
2Y -2.62 11/2020
10/2022
0.94$ -0.13 0.99$ 0.61 1.01$ 2.10 1.04$ 4.17 05/2018
04/2020
1.08$ 0.55 17.01%
3Y -1.20 07/2020
06/2023
0.96$ 0.15 1.00$ 0.65 1.01$ 2.32 1.07$ 2.83 03/2018
02/2021
1.08$ -0.22 14.07%
4Y 0.10 07/2019
06/2023
1.00$ 0.47 1.01$ 0.65 1.02$ 1.92 1.07$ 2.12 12/2016
11/2020
1.08$ 0.23 0.00%
5Y 0.39 05/2013
04/2018
1.01$ 0.54 1.02$ 0.87 1.04$ 1.60 1.08$ 1.84 01/2016
12/2020
1.09$ 1.12 0.00%
6Y 0.39 05/2012
04/2018
1.02$ 0.51 1.03$ 0.82 1.04$ 1.52 1.09$ 1.66 08/2014
07/2020
1.10$ 1.30 0.00%
7Y 0.45 09/2011
08/2018
1.03$ 0.53 1.03$ 0.80 1.05$ 1.43 1.10$ 1.50 09/2013
08/2020
1.10$ 1.08 0.00%
8Y 0.52 11/2010
10/2018
1.04$ 0.64 1.05$ 0.87 1.07$ 1.31 1.10$ 1.34 04/2012
03/2020
1.11$ 0.98 0.00%
9Y 0.53 11/2013
10/2022
1.04$ 0.72 1.06$ 0.97 1.09$ 1.21 1.11$ 1.34 04/2011
03/2020
1.12$ 0.98 0.00%
10Y 0.52 11/2012
10/2022
1.05$ 0.67 1.06$ 0.99 1.10$ 1.22 1.12$ 1.36 04/2010
03/2020
1.14$ 0.93 0.00%
11Y 0.50 11/2011
10/2022
1.05$ 0.61 1.06$ 0.80 1.09$ 1.15 1.13$ 1.33 01/2010
12/2020
1.15$ 0.89 0.00%
12Y 0.54 11/2010
10/2022
1.06$ 0.61 1.07$ 0.75 1.09$ 0.88 1.11$ 1.17 01/2010
12/2021
1.14$ 0.85 0.00%
13Y 0.68 03/2010
02/2023
1.09$ 0.68 1.09$ 0.77 1.10$ 0.88 1.12$ 0.92 02/2011
01/2024
1.12$ 0.88 0.00%
14Y 0.93 03/2010
02/2024
1.13$ 0.93 1.13$ 0.97 1.14$ 1.00 1.15$ 1.00 01/2010
12/2023
1.15$ 0.93 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -12.24 10/2021
09/2022
0.87$ -4.12 0.95$ -1.26 0.98$ 1.03 1.01$ 4.92 05/2019
04/2020
1.04$ 1.47 73.58%
2Y -8.98 11/2020
10/2022
0.82$ -4.63 0.90$ -1.13 0.97$ 0.29 1.00$ 2.98 06/2018
05/2020
1.06$ -3.62 80.27%
3Y -6.58 07/2020
06/2023
0.81$ -4.57 0.86$ -0.94 0.97$ -0.12 0.99$ 1.01 02/2018
01/2021
1.03$ -5.44 85.93%
4Y -4.31 10/2019
09/2023
0.83$ -3.33 0.87$ -0.79 0.96$ -0.42 0.98$ 0.43 06/2016
05/2020
1.01$ -4.12 91.06%
5Y -3.23 11/2017
10/2022
0.84$ -2.82 0.86$ -0.80 0.96$ -0.40 0.98$ 0.25 06/2015
05/2020
1.01$ -2.86 95.50%
6Y -3.00 11/2016
10/2022
0.83$ -2.71 0.84$ -0.89 0.94$ -0.40 0.97$ 0.33 06/2014
05/2020
1.02$ -2.28 91.92%
7Y -2.85 03/2016
02/2023
0.81$ -2.58 0.83$ -1.00 0.93$ -0.27 0.98$ 0.07 06/2013
05/2020
1.00$ -2.30 96.55%
8Y -2.49 03/2015
02/2023
0.81$ -2.29 0.83$ -1.00 0.92$ -0.26 0.97$ -0.08 05/2012
04/2020
0.99$ -2.32 100.00%
9Y -2.15 03/2014
02/2023
0.82$ -2.05 0.82$ -0.85 0.92$ -0.37 0.96$ -0.18 06/2011
05/2020
0.98$ -2.06 100.00%
10Y -2.01 10/2013
09/2023
0.81$ -1.96 0.82$ -1.19 0.88$ -0.51 0.95$ -0.31 05/2010
04/2020
0.96$ -1.79 100.00%
11Y -1.96 11/2011
10/2022
0.80$ -1.91 0.80$ -1.69 0.82$ -0.86 0.90$ -0.38 01/2010
12/2020
0.95$ -1.69 100.00%
12Y -2.00 11/2010
10/2022
0.78$ -1.93 0.79$ -1.79 0.80$ -1.53 0.83$ -0.97 01/2010
12/2021
0.88$ -1.68 100.00%
13Y -1.92 10/2010
09/2023
0.77$ -1.89 0.77$ -1.79 0.79$ -1.67 0.80$ -1.66 02/2011
01/2024
0.80$ -1.67 100.00%
14Y -1.59 03/2010
02/2024
0.79$ -1.59 0.79$ -1.55 0.80$ -1.50 0.80$ -1.50 01/2010
12/2023
0.80$ -1.59 100.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.60% +5.49%
Apr 2019 - Mar 2020
-5.04%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
20.75%
33 out of 159
US Inflation Adjusted -1.26% +4.92%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
-12.24%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
73.58%
117 out of 159
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.61% +4.17%
May 2018 - Apr 2020
-2.62%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
17.01%
25 out of 147
US Inflation Adjusted -1.13% +2.98%
Jun 2018 - May 2020
-8.98%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
80.27%
118 out of 147
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.65% +2.83%
Mar 2018 - Feb 2021
-1.20%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2023
14.07%
19 out of 135
US Inflation Adjusted -0.94% +1.01%
Feb 2018 - Jan 2021
-6.58%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2023
85.93%
116 out of 135
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.65% +2.12%
Dec 2016 - Nov 2020
+0.10%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2023
0.00%
0 out of 123
US Inflation Adjusted -0.79% +0.43%
Jun 2016 - May 2020
-4.31%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
91.06%
112 out of 123
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.87% +1.84%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2020
+0.39%
May 2013 - Apr 2018
0.00%
0 out of 111
US Inflation Adjusted -0.80% +0.25%
Jun 2015 - May 2020
-3.23%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
95.50%
106 out of 111
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.82% +1.66%
Aug 2014 - Jul 2020
+0.39%
May 2012 - Apr 2018
0.00%
0 out of 99
US Inflation Adjusted -0.89% +0.33%
Jun 2014 - May 2020
-3.00%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022
91.92%
91 out of 99
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.80% +1.50%
Sep 2013 - Aug 2020
+0.45%
Sep 2011 - Aug 2018
0.00%
0 out of 87
US Inflation Adjusted -1.00% +0.07%
Jun 2013 - May 2020
-2.85%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2023
96.55%
84 out of 87
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.87% +1.34%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2020
+0.52%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2018
0.00%
0 out of 75
US Inflation Adjusted -1.00% -0.08%
May 2012 - Apr 2020
-2.49%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
100.00%
75 out of 75
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.97% +1.34%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020
+0.53%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
0.00%
0 out of 63
US Inflation Adjusted -0.85% -0.18%
Jun 2011 - May 2020
-2.15%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2023
100.00%
63 out of 63
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.99% +1.36%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2020
+0.52%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
0.00%
0 out of 51
US Inflation Adjusted -1.19% -0.31%
May 2010 - Apr 2020
-2.01%
Oct 2013 - Sep 2023
100.00%
51 out of 51
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.80% +1.33%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2020
+0.50%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2022
0.00%
0 out of 39
US Inflation Adjusted -1.69% -0.38%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2020
-1.96%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2022
100.00%
39 out of 39
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.75% +1.17%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2021
+0.54%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022
0.00%
0 out of 27
US Inflation Adjusted -1.79% -0.97%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2021
-2.00%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022
100.00%
27 out of 27
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.77% +0.92%
Feb 2011 - Jan 2024
+0.68%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 15
US Inflation Adjusted -1.79% -1.66%
Feb 2011 - Jan 2024
-1.92%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023
100.00%
15 out of 15
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.97% +1.00%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2023
+0.93%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 3
US Inflation Adjusted -1.55% -1.50%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2023
-1.59%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2024
100.00%
3 out of 3
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF: Historical Returns page.