Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024
Holding the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~154 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 50 months (from September 2019 to October 2023).
This means that every rolling period of 51 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF: Historical Returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 1.36% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.03% |
+34.01%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-7.30%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
8.90%
163 out of 1831 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.87% |
+30.78%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-19.79%
Jul 1919 - Jun 1920 |
35.77%
655 out of 1831 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.04% |
+22.75%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983 |
-3.78%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
1.87%
34 out of 1819 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.08% |
+23.26%
Jul 1920 - Jun 1922 |
-15.24%
Jul 1918 - Jun 1920 |
30.73%
559 out of 1819 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.14% |
+19.92%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985 |
-1.67%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
1.55%
28 out of 1807 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.21% |
+17.68%
Aug 1873 - Jul 1876 |
-12.84%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1920 |
27.39%
495 out of 1807 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.28% |
+18.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1985 |
-0.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
0.33%
6 out of 1795 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.01% |
+16.10%
Jun 1874 - May 1878 |
-13.78%
Jun 1916 - May 1920 |
26.35%
473 out of 1795 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.30% |
+17.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986 |
+0.46%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 1783 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.99% |
+16.55%
Jun 1873 - May 1878 |
-11.52%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1920 |
26.36%
470 out of 1783 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.26% |
+15.94%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986 |
+0.43%
Jul 1947 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1771 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.96% |
+15.94%
Jan 1873 - Dec 1878 |
-9.09%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 |
25.52%
452 out of 1771 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.28% |
+15.11%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987 |
+0.67%
Jul 1946 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1759 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.89% |
+14.37%
May 1872 - Apr 1879 |
-7.30%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 |
24.50%
431 out of 1759 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+13.87%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1988 |
+0.59%
Jul 1945 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1747 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.86% |
+12.26%
Apr 1871 - Mar 1879 |
-6.17%
Jul 1912 - Jun 1920 |
24.04%
420 out of 1747 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.28% |
+12.90%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1990 |
+0.80%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 1735 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.91% |
+10.33%
Jun 1872 - May 1881 |
-6.15%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920 |
26.51%
460 out of 1735 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.24% |
+12.83%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 |
+0.74%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 1723 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.93% |
+9.26%
Apr 1871 - Mar 1881 |
-4.69%
Jun 1941 - May 1951 |
24.61%
424 out of 1723 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.29% |
+12.73%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
+0.85%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 1711 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.88% |
+9.68%
Feb 1874 - Jan 1885 |
-4.34%
Dec 1940 - Nov 1951 |
23.79%
407 out of 1711 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+12.37%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1992 |
+0.91%
Jul 1941 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1699 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.84% |
+10.21%
Apr 1873 - Mar 1885 |
-4.13%
Jun 1939 - May 1951 |
22.07%
375 out of 1699 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.25% |
+12.20%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1993 |
+1.08%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 1687 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.83% |
+10.19%
Apr 1873 - Mar 1886 |
-3.73%
Aug 1939 - Jul 1952 |
20.27%
342 out of 1687 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.24% |
+11.60%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994 |
+0.99%
Jun 1939 - May 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1675 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.82% |
+9.85%
May 1872 - Apr 1886 |
-3.67%
Jul 1939 - Jun 1953 |
19.70%
330 out of 1675 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.25% |
+11.02%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1995 |
+1.17%
Jul 1938 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1663 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.85% |
+9.14%
Apr 1871 - Mar 1886 |
-3.06%
Jul 1938 - Jun 1953 |
18.94%
315 out of 1663 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+10.92%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996 |
+1.11%
Aug 1941 - Jul 1957 |
0.00%
0 out of 1651 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.86% |
+9.09%
Apr 1873 - Mar 1889 |
-2.92%
Aug 1941 - Jul 1957 |
16.96%
280 out of 1651 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.21% |
+10.58%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1997 |
+1.26%
Jun 1936 - May 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1639 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.90% |
+8.85%
Jun 1872 - May 1889 |
-2.71%
Nov 1940 - Oct 1957 |
17.75%
291 out of 1639 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.21% |
+10.40%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998 |
+1.21%
Jul 1935 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1627 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.89% |
+8.39%
Feb 1872 - Jan 1890 |
-2.72%
Aug 1939 - Jul 1957 |
17.95%
292 out of 1627 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.20% |
+10.14%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999 |
+1.26%
Jul 1934 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1615 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.99% |
+8.78%
Apr 1873 - Mar 1892 |
-2.36%
Jul 1934 - Jun 1953 |
16.78%
271 out of 1615 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.16% |
+9.82%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2000 |
+1.38%
Jul 1933 - Jun 1953 |
0.00%
0 out of 1603 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +1.99% |
+8.61%
May 1872 - Apr 1892 |
-2.33%
Jul 1933 - Jun 1953 |
17.40%
279 out of 1603 |
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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) ETF: Historical Returns page.