When holding the Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~97 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 233 months (from August 1955 to December 1974).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 234 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.52%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-58.17%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2009 |
+7.81% |
+114.31%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
28.94%
334 out of 1154 |
-57.99%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2009 |
+4.31% |
+129.50%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
37.26%
430 out of 1154 |
-42.93%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+6.29% |
+65.96%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
22.33%
255 out of 1142 |
-44.07%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+3.17% |
+62.48%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
33.98%
388 out of 1142 |
-25.90%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
+5.99% |
+43.49%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2012 |
18.32%
207 out of 1130 |
-26.57%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009 |
+2.99% |
+39.99%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2012 |
32.04%
362 out of 1130 |
-15.79%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 |
+6.13% |
+35.97%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
15.83%
177 out of 1118 |
-15.88%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+2.98% |
+32.91%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
30.95%
346 out of 1118 |
-12.64%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1935 |
+5.94% |
+29.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
10.85%
120 out of 1106 |
-11.03%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2009 |
+2.74% |
+26.93%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
27.12%
300 out of 1106 |
-9.73%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1935 |
+6.41% |
+28.34%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
9.05%
99 out of 1094 |
-8.78%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
+2.82% |
+26.19%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
23.95%
262 out of 1094 |
-7.36%
Apr 1931 - Mar 1938 |
+7.29% |
+24.21%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2016 |
7.76%
84 out of 1082 |
-7.30%
Sep 1967 - Aug 1974 |
+3.37% |
+22.21%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2016 |
21.90%
237 out of 1082 |
-7.42%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 |
+7.61% |
+24.23%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1983 |
6.26%
67 out of 1070 |
-6.49%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974 |
+3.36% |
+20.17%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
19.81%
212 out of 1070 |
-5.46%
May 1930 - Apr 1939 |
+7.93% |
+23.90%
Dec 1975 - Nov 1984 |
5.39%
57 out of 1058 |
-6.23%
Jul 1933 - Jun 1942 |
+3.45% |
+16.07%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2018 |
17.30%
183 out of 1058 |
-5.70%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 |
+7.98% |
+23.58%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1985 |
5.35%
56 out of 1046 |
-5.44%
Jan 1965 - Dec 1974 |
+3.57% |
+16.25%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2019 |
18.45%
193 out of 1046 |
-4.39%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 |
+8.06% |
+23.71%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1986 |
5.03%
52 out of 1034 |
-4.96%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974 |
+3.90% |
+16.12%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1986 |
17.02% |