Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1974 to April 2024 (~50 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024

Holding the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~50 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 105 months (from February 2015 to October 2023).

This means that every rolling period of 106 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

VANGUARD LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND (VCLT) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to April 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 2.25% (updated at Apr 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND (VCLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1974 - 30 April 2024 (~50 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.26% +35.03%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 		-30.82%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 		16.86%
100 out of 593
US Inflation Adjusted +4.47% +35.33%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 		-35.80%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 		32.88%
195 out of 593
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.05% +23.63%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 		-16.86%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 		7.57%
44 out of 581
US Inflation Adjusted +4.94% +22.18%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2010 		-21.17%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 		21.00%
122 out of 581
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.35% +19.66%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011 		-10.26%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 		4.92%
28 out of 569
US Inflation Adjusted +4.88% +17.91%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011 		-15.12%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 		15.29%
87 out of 569
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.93% +18.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1985 		-5.95%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 		2.69%
15 out of 557
US Inflation Adjusted +4.86% +16.12%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2012 		-10.06%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 		13.82%
77 out of 557
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.22% +18.42%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986 		-1.82%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 		1.10%
6 out of 545
US Inflation Adjusted +5.03% +14.53%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986 		-6.78%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981 		15.05%
82 out of 545
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.97% +16.53%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986 		-1.53%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 		0.75%
4 out of 533
US Inflation Adjusted +5.42% +11.85%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 		-5.25%
Mar 1974 - Feb 1980 		15.38%
82 out of 533
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.98% +15.90%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987 		-0.49%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 		0.38%
2 out of 521
US Inflation Adjusted +5.29% +10.87%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 		-4.34%
Mar 1974 - Feb 1981 		11.52%
60 out of 521
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.06% +14.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 		+0.91%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 		0.00%
0 out of 509
US Inflation Adjusted +5.11% +10.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 		-3.75%
Jan 1974 - Dec 1981 		6.48%
33 out of 509
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.21% +13.88%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 		+0.80%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 497
US Inflation Adjusted +5.17% +9.78%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 		-2.06%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 		3.62%
18 out of 497
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.20% +14.02%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 		+1.35%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 		0.00%
0 out of 485
US Inflation Adjusted +5.36% +9.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 		-1.17%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 		3.09%
15 out of 485
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.47% +14.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 		+1.22%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 473
US Inflation Adjusted +5.16% +10.01%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 		-1.35%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 		1.48%
7 out of 473
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.58% +14.39%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 		+2.18%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 461
US Inflation Adjusted +5.08% +10.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 		-0.39%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 		0.22%
1 out of 461
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.49% +13.42%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1993 		+3.02%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 449
US Inflation Adjusted +5.10% +8.74%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994 		+0.37%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 449
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.22% +13.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 		+3.61%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 437
US Inflation Adjusted +5.04% +9.14%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 		+1.04%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 437
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.18% +12.49%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1996 		+4.28%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 		0.00%
0 out of 425
US Inflation Adjusted +5.11% +8.55%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1996 		+1.85%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 		0.00%
0 out of 425
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.32% +12.48%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 		+4.00%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 413
US Inflation Adjusted +4.98% +8.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 		+1.53%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 413
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.35% +12.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 		+3.93%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 401
US Inflation Adjusted +5.08% +8.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 		+1.39%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 401
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.25% +12.03%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998 		+4.03%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 389
US Inflation Adjusted +5.07% +7.93%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1999 		+1.55%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 389
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.25% +11.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999 		+3.99%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 377
US Inflation Adjusted +5.13% +7.75%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 		+1.41%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 377
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.21% +11.39%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2001 		+4.27%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 365
US Inflation Adjusted +5.19% +7.87%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2001 		+1.65%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 		0.00%
0 out of 365
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.