Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1974 - January 2025 (~51 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
(Change Settings)
The minimum date range must be at least 24 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond January 2025.
Reset settings
Close

When holding the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~51 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 105 months (from February 2015 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 106 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND (VCLT) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1974 - 31 January 2025 (~51 years)

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.52%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND (VCLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1974 - 31 January 2025 (~51 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND (VCLT) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1974 - 31 January 2025 (~51 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait
Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-30.82%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+8.25% +35.03%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009
16.94%
102 out of 602
-35.80%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+4.45% +35.33%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009
33.06%
199 out of 602
-16.86%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+7.99% +23.63%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
7.63%
45 out of 590
-21.18%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+4.89% +22.18%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2010
21.36%
126 out of 590
-10.26%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+8.26% +19.66%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011
6.40%
37 out of 578
-15.12%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+4.83% +17.91%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011
16.61%
96 out of 578
-5.96%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+7.89% +18.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1985
4.24%
24 out of 566
-10.07%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+4.78% +16.12%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2012
15.19%
86 out of 566
-2.72%
Feb 2020 - Jan 2025
+8.11% +18.42%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
2.71%
15 out of 554
-6.78%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981
+4.94% +14.53%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
16.43%
91 out of 554
-1.53%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+7.92% +16.53%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986
0.74%
4 out of 542
-5.25%
Mar 1974 - Feb 1980
+5.38% +11.85%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987
16.79%
91 out of 542
-0.49%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+7.95% +15.90%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
0.38%
2 out of 530
-4.34%
Mar 1974 - Feb 1981
+5.20% +10.87%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
13.02%
69 out of 530
+0.91%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+8.01% +14.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 518
-3.75%
Jan 1974 - Dec 1981
+5.07% +10.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
8.11%
42 out of 518
+0.80%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+8.14% +13.88%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 506
-2.06%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.14% +9.78%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
4.94%
25 out of 506
+1.35%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
+8.15% +14.02%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
0.00%
0 out of 494
-1.56%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+5.31% +9.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
4.66%
23 out of 494
+1.22%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+8.40% +14.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
0.00%
0 out of 482
-1.35%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.11% +10.01%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
1.45%
7 out of 482
+2.18%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+8.48% +14.39%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 470
-0.39%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+5.06% +10.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.85%
4 out of 470
+3.02%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+8.42% +13.42%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1993
0.00%
0 out of 458
+0.36%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.03% +8.74%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 458
+3.61%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023
+7.99% +13.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 446
+1.04%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023
+4.97% +9.14%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 446
+4.28%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+8.11% +12.49%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1996
0.00%
0 out of 434
+1.85%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+5.07% +8.55%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1996
0.00%
0 out of 434
+4.00%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+8.16% +12.48%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 422
+1.53%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+4.96% +8.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 422
+3.93%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+8.20% +12.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 410
+1.39%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.02% +8.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 410
+4.03%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+8.16% +12.03%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 398
+1.55%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+5.04% +7.93%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1999
0.00%
0 out of 398
+3.99%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+8.00% +11.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 386
+1.41%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.10% +7.75%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
0.00%
0 out of 386
+4.27%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+8.17% +11.39%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2001
0.00%
0 out of 374
+1.65%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+5.15% +7.87%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2001
0.00%
0 out of 374
+4.78%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+8.45% +10.74%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 314
+2.18%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+5.22% +7.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 314
+5.26%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+8.74% +10.03%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2011
0.00%
0 out of 254
+2.67%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+5.22% +6.82%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2011
0.00%
0 out of 254
The first official book of
Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing