Vanguard Growth (VUG): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1927 to March 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~97 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 187 months (from September 1929 to March 1945).

This means that every rolling period of 188 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

VANGUARD GROWTH (VUG) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 15.07% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD GROWTH (VUG) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.96% +157.12%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-67.02%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		25.09%
290 out of 1156
US Inflation Adjusted +8.97% +175.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-63.39%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		31.49%
364 out of 1156
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.09% +59.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-53.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		19.49%
223 out of 1144
US Inflation Adjusted +7.82% +60.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-48.11%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		28.15%
322 out of 1144
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.23% +46.10%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 		-43.00%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		17.58%
199 out of 1132
US Inflation Adjusted +7.35% +42.11%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 		-38.48%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		25.18%
285 out of 1132
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.23% +42.65%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-28.75%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		15.54%
174 out of 1120
US Inflation Adjusted +7.54% +42.13%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-24.58%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		24.55%
275 out of 1120
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.06% +35.70%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-18.23%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1933 		13.63%
151 out of 1108
US Inflation Adjusted +7.37% +34.36%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-14.01%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 		22.38%
248 out of 1108
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.97% +29.77%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000 		-11.94%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935 		12.14%
133 out of 1096
US Inflation Adjusted +7.14% +26.56%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000 		-11.63%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 		18.89%
207 out of 1096
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.73% +24.72%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2000 		-6.35%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935 		9.13%
99 out of 1084
US Inflation Adjusted +6.42% +21.62%
May 1949 - Apr 1956 		-9.79%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 		17.99%
195 out of 1084
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +23.38%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999 		-7.15%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 		4.94%
53 out of 1072
US Inflation Adjusted +6.88% +20.32%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999 		-8.55%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1980 		17.26%
185 out of 1072
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.34% +23.88%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 		-7.22%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 		4.43%
47 out of 1060
US Inflation Adjusted +7.32% +20.76%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 		-9.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 		15.47%
164 out of 1060
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.24% +22.34%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2000 		-4.67%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 		5.25%
55 out of 1048
US Inflation Adjusted +7.03% +19.06%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000 		-7.34%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982 		16.51%
173 out of 1048
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.15% +22.68%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 		-4.12%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 		5.31%
55 out of 1036
US Inflation Adjusted +6.97% +19.00%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 		-5.21%
Apr 1969 - Mar 1980 		18.05%
187 out of 1036
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.16% +21.94%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999 		-3.47%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941 		3.13%
32 out of 1024
US Inflation Adjusted +7.14% +18.16%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999 		-4.48%
May 1968 - Apr 1980 		19.92%
204 out of 1024
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +20.60%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999 		-4.20%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		1.78%
18 out of 1012
US Inflation Adjusted +6.93% +16.76%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999 		-4.31%
Jun 1969 - May 1982 		14.43%
146 out of 1012
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.16% +20.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 		-1.67%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943 		1.80%
18 out of 1000
US Inflation Adjusted +6.98% +16.89%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 		-4.02%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982 		13.00%
130 out of 1000
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.00% +21.18%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 		-0.92%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 		0.91%
9 out of 988
US Inflation Adjusted +6.82% +17.44%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 		-3.68%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 		10.12%
100 out of 988
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.08% +20.68%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000 		+0.42%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1945 		0.00%
0 out of 976
US Inflation Adjusted +6.69% +16.91%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000 		-2.62%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982 		9.12%
89 out of 976
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.25% +20.75%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		+0.67%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946 		0.00%
0 out of 964
US Inflation Adjusted +6.80% +16.99%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		-2.38%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982 		6.95%
67 out of 964
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.28% +20.72%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		+0.66%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 		0.00%
0 out of 952
US Inflation Adjusted +6.55% +16.86%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000 		-1.93%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982 		6.09%
58 out of 952
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.31% +19.41%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 		+1.09%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 		0.00%
0 out of 940
US Inflation Adjusted +6.67% +15.09%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000 		-0.76%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982 		3.30%
31 out of 940
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.27% +19.69%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		+1.34%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 		0.00%
0 out of 928
US Inflation Adjusted +6.91% +15.24%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		-0.65%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982 		1.40%
13 out of 928
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF: Historical Returns page.