Vanguard Growth (VUG): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1927 to June 2024 (~98 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024

Holding the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~98 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 187 months (from September 1929 to March 1945).

This means that every rolling period of 188 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

VANGUARD GROWTH (VUG) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to June 2024

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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 15.35% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD GROWTH (VUG) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 30 June 2024 (~98 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +13.09% +157.12%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-67.02%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
25.02%
290 out of 1159
US Inflation Adjusted +9.20% +175.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-63.39%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
31.41%
364 out of 1159
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.13% +59.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-53.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
19.44%
223 out of 1147
US Inflation Adjusted +7.82% +60.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-48.11%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
28.07%
322 out of 1147
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.20% +46.10%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-43.00%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
17.53%
199 out of 1135
US Inflation Adjusted +7.35% +42.11%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-38.48%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
25.11%
285 out of 1135
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.26% +42.65%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-28.75%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
15.49%
174 out of 1123
US Inflation Adjusted +7.56% +42.13%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-24.58%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
24.49%
275 out of 1123
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.08% +35.70%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-18.23%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1933
13.59%
151 out of 1111
US Inflation Adjusted +7.41% +34.36%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-14.01%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
22.32%
248 out of 1111
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.01% +29.77%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
-11.94%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
12.10%
133 out of 1099
US Inflation Adjusted +7.15% +26.56%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
-11.63%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
18.84%
207 out of 1099
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.74% +24.72%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2000
-6.35%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935
9.11%
99 out of 1087
US Inflation Adjusted +6.45% +21.62%
May 1949 - Apr 1956
-9.79%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
17.94%
195 out of 1087
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.04% +23.38%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999
-7.15%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
4.93%
53 out of 1075
US Inflation Adjusted +6.88% +20.32%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999
-8.55%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1980
17.21%
185 out of 1075
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.35% +23.88%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-7.22%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
4.42%
47 out of 1063
US Inflation Adjusted +7.33% +20.76%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-9.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
15.43%
164 out of 1063
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.27% +22.34%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2000
-4.67%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
5.23%
55 out of 1051
US Inflation Adjusted +7.05% +19.06%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
-7.34%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982
16.46%
173 out of 1051
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.18% +22.68%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
-4.12%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
5.29%
55 out of 1039
US Inflation Adjusted +7.00% +19.00%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
-5.21%
Apr 1969 - Mar 1980
18.00%
187 out of 1039
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.18% +21.94%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
-3.47%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941
3.12%
32 out of 1027
US Inflation Adjusted +7.17% +18.16%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
-4.48%
May 1968 - Apr 1980
19.86%
204 out of 1027
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.06% +20.60%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999
-4.20%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
1.77%
18 out of 1015
US Inflation Adjusted +6.95% +16.76%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999
-4.31%
Jun 1969 - May 1982
14.38%
146 out of 1015
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.17% +20.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
-1.67%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943
1.79%
18 out of 1003
US Inflation Adjusted +7.00% +16.89%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
-4.02%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
12.96%
130 out of 1003
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +21.18%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
-0.92%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
0.91%
9 out of 991
US Inflation Adjusted +6.83% +17.44%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
-3.68%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
10.09%
100 out of 991
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.10% +20.68%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
+0.42%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1945
0.00%
0 out of 979
US Inflation Adjusted +6.72% +16.91%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
-2.62%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982
9.09%
89 out of 979
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.29% +20.75%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
+0.67%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946
0.00%
0 out of 967
US Inflation Adjusted +6.93% +16.99%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
-2.38%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
6.93%
67 out of 967
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.30% +20.72%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
+0.66%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
0.00%
0 out of 955
US Inflation Adjusted +6.58% +16.86%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
-1.93%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
6.07%
58 out of 955
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.32% +19.41%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
+1.09%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
0.00%
0 out of 943
US Inflation Adjusted +6.68% +15.09%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000
-0.76%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982
3.29%
31 out of 943
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.29% +19.69%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+1.34%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
0.00%
0 out of 931
US Inflation Adjusted +6.94% +15.24%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
-0.65%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
1.40%
13 out of 931
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF: Historical Returns page.