Vanguard Growth (VUG): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1927 to March 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~97 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 187 months (from September 1929 to March 1945).

This means that every rolling period of 188 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Growth (VUG) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

VANGUARD GROWTH (VUG) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 15.07% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD GROWTH (VUG) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.96% +157.12%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-67.02%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
25.09%
290 out of 1156
US Inflation Adjusted +8.97% +175.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-63.39%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
31.49%
364 out of 1156
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.09% +59.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-53.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
19.49%
223 out of 1144
US Inflation Adjusted +7.82% +60.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-48.11%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
28.15%
322 out of 1144
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.23% +46.10%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-43.00%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
17.58%
199 out of 1132
US Inflation Adjusted +7.35% +42.11%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-38.48%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
25.18%
285 out of 1132
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.23% +42.65%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-28.75%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
15.54%
174 out of 1120
US Inflation Adjusted +7.54% +42.13%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-24.58%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
24.55%
275 out of 1120
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.06% +35.70%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-18.23%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1933
13.63%
151 out of 1108
US Inflation Adjusted +7.37% +34.36%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-14.01%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
22.38%
248 out of 1108
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.97% +29.77%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
-11.94%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
12.14%
133 out of 1096
US Inflation Adjusted +7.14% +26.56%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
-11.63%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
18.89%
207 out of 1096
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.73% +24.72%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2000
-6.35%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935
9.13%
99 out of 1084
US Inflation Adjusted +6.42% +21.62%
May 1949 - Apr 1956
-9.79%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
17.99%
195 out of 1084
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +23.38%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999
-7.15%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
4.94%
53 out of 1072
US Inflation Adjusted +6.88% +20.32%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999
-8.55%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1980
17.26%
185 out of 1072
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.34% +23.88%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-7.22%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
4.43%
47 out of 1060
US Inflation Adjusted +7.32% +20.76%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-9.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
15.47%
164 out of 1060
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.24% +22.34%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2000
-4.67%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
5.25%
55 out of 1048
US Inflation Adjusted +7.03% +19.06%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
-7.34%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982
16.51%
173 out of 1048
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.15% +22.68%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
-4.12%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
5.31%
55 out of 1036
US Inflation Adjusted +6.97% +19.00%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
-5.21%
Apr 1969 - Mar 1980
18.05%
187 out of 1036
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.16% +21.94%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
-3.47%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941
3.13%
32 out of 1024
US Inflation Adjusted +7.14% +18.16%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
-4.48%
May 1968 - Apr 1980
19.92%
204 out of 1024
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +20.60%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999
-4.20%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
1.78%
18 out of 1012
US Inflation Adjusted +6.93% +16.76%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999
-4.31%
Jun 1969 - May 1982
14.43%
146 out of 1012
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.16% +20.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
-1.67%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943
1.80%
18 out of 1000
US Inflation Adjusted +6.98% +16.89%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
-4.02%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
13.00%
130 out of 1000
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.00% +21.18%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
-0.92%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
0.91%
9 out of 988
US Inflation Adjusted +6.82% +17.44%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
-3.68%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
10.12%
100 out of 988
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.08% +20.68%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
+0.42%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1945
0.00%
0 out of 976
US Inflation Adjusted +6.69% +16.91%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
-2.62%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982
9.12%
89 out of 976
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.25% +20.75%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
+0.67%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946
0.00%
0 out of 964
US Inflation Adjusted +6.80% +16.99%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
-2.38%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
6.95%
67 out of 964
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.28% +20.72%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
+0.66%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
0.00%
0 out of 952
US Inflation Adjusted +6.55% +16.86%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
-1.93%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
6.09%
58 out of 952
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.31% +19.41%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
+1.09%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
0.00%
0 out of 940
US Inflation Adjusted +6.67% +15.09%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000
-0.76%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982
3.30%
31 out of 940
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution