When holding the VanEck Vectors ChinaAMC China Bond (CBON) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~12 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 51 months (from July 2015 to September 2019).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 52 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANECK VECTORS CHINAAMC CHINA BOND (CBON) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 2016 - 30 June 2026 (10 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 2015 - 30 June 2026 (~12 years)
All Data
(2015/01 - 2026/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANECK VECTORS CHINAAMC CHINA BOND (CBON) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 2015 - 30 June 2026 (~12 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-10.46%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+2.13% +14.77%
Jun 2020 - May 2021
31.50%
40 out of 127
-16.91%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
-0.39% +11.47%
May 2017 - Apr 2018
56.69%
72 out of 127
-4.14%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+2.38% +9.27%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2021
28.70%
33 out of 115
-9.12%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
-0.65% +5.86%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2021
53.91%
62 out of 115
-1.74%
Mar 2022 - Feb 2025
+2.45% +7.07%
Dec 2018 - Nov 2021
17.48%
18 out of 103
-6.19%
Jun 2021 - May 2024
-0.62% +3.76%
Nov 2018 - Oct 2021
58.25%
60 out of 103
-0.09%
Jun 2021 - May 2025
+2.28% +6.17%
May 2017 - Apr 2021
1.10%
1 out of 91
-4.68%
Feb 2021 - Jan 2025
-1.38% +3.85%
May 2017 - Apr 2021
73.63%
67 out of 91
+0.83%
Jun 2015 - May 2020
+2.37% +5.72%
Mar 2017 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 79
-3.01%
Feb 2021 - Jan 2026
-1.28% +2.68%
Jan 2017 - Dec 2021
70.89%
56 out of 79
+1.45%
May 2018 - Apr 2024
+2.85% +3.90%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 67
-2.28%
May 2018 - Apr 2024
-0.78% +1.32%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2021
76.12%
51 out of 67
+1.04%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2022
+2.62% +3.67%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 55
-2.16%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2022
-0.87% +0.90%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2022
92.73%
51 out of 55
+1.24%
Jul 2015 - Jun 2023
+2.43% +3.21%
Jul 2018 - Jun 2026
0.00%
0 out of 43
-1.97%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
-0.99% -0.31%
May 2017 - Apr 2025
100.00%
43 out of 43
+1.51%
Jul 2015 - Jun 2024
+2.12% +3.71%
May 2017 - Apr 2026
0.00%
0 out of 31
-1.55%
Jul 2015 - Jun 2024
-1.08% +0.21%
May 2017 - Apr 2026
87.10%
27 out of 31
+1.62%
Aug 2015 - Jul 2025
+2.03% +2.95%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2026
0.00%
0 out of 19
-1.41%
Aug 2015 - Jul 2025
-1.07% -0.39%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2026
100.00%
19 out of 19
+2.14%
Jan 2015 - Dec 2025
+2.36% +2.57%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2026
0.00%
0 out of 7
-0.81%
Jan 2015 - Dec 2025
-0.72% -0.46%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2026
100.00%
7 out of 7
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