VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Intermediate Municipal Index (ITM): Rolling Returns

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Period: January 1978 - May 2025 (~47 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Intermediate Municipal Index (ITM) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~47 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 74 months (from September 2016 to October 2022).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 75 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANECK VECTORS AMT-FREE INTERMEDIATE MUNICIPAL INDEX (ITM) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1978 - 31 May 2025 (~47 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.97%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANECK VECTORS AMT-FREE INTERMEDIATE MUNICIPAL INDEX (ITM) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1978 - 31 May 2025 (~47 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANECK VECTORS AMT-FREE INTERMEDIATE MUNICIPAL INDEX (ITM) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1978 - 31 May 2025 (~47 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-15.66%
Apr 1979 - Mar 1980
+5.14% +31.07%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1982
15.59%
87 out of 558
-26.40%
Apr 1979 - Mar 1980
+2.64% +26.24%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1982
33.15%
185 out of 558
-13.12%
Sep 1979 - Aug 1981
+5.40% +19.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983
11.54%
63 out of 546
-22.33%
Sep 1979 - Aug 1981
+2.83% +15.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983
23.08%
126 out of 546
-8.45%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1981
+5.22% +16.24%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
10.11%
54 out of 534
-18.16%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1981
+2.72% +11.94%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
18.91%
101 out of 534
-6.05%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1981
+5.15% +16.41%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1986
5.94%
31 out of 522
-15.25%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1981
+2.71% +12.07%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1986
15.71%
82 out of 522
-0.07%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+5.30% +16.05%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1987
0.20%
1 out of 510
-8.22%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1982
+2.95% +12.27%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1987
14.31%
73 out of 510
+0.10%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+5.18% +13.67%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1988
0.00%
0 out of 498
-6.50%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1983
+2.87% +9.83%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1988
13.25%
66 out of 498
+0.57%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+5.18% +12.90%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
0.00%
0 out of 486
-4.90%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1984
+2.79% +8.95%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
12.76%
62 out of 486
+1.10%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+5.17% +12.49%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1989
0.00%
0 out of 474
-2.83%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1985
+2.77% +8.42%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1989
10.76%
51 out of 474
+1.29%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.08% +11.89%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1990
0.00%
0 out of 462
-1.84%
May 2016 - Apr 2025
+2.71% +7.56%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1990
10.61%
49 out of 462
+1.37%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
+4.99% +11.91%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 450
-1.32%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+2.66% +7.69%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1991
10.44%
47 out of 450
+1.46%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.00% +11.63%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1992
0.00%
0 out of 438
-1.12%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+2.60% +7.51%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1992
7.99%
35 out of 438
+1.90%
May 2013 - Apr 2025
+5.12% +11.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 426
-0.81%
May 2013 - Apr 2025
+2.55% +7.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
7.04%
30 out of 426
+2.06%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
+5.07% +10.83%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994
0.00%
0 out of 414
-0.56%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
+2.51% +6.81%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994
2.42%
10 out of 414
+2.56%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+4.96% +10.72%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 402
+0.00%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+2.45% +6.90%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 402
+2.77%
Jun 2010 - May 2025
+5.11% +10.28%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 390
+0.14%
Jun 2010 - May 2025
+2.52% +6.48%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 390
+2.91%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.11% +10.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 378
+0.44%
Jun 2009 - May 2025
+2.54% +6.41%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1997
0.00%
0 out of 378
+2.90%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.21% +9.90%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 366
+0.38%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+2.53% +6.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 366
+2.94%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2022
+5.39% +9.35%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 354
+0.43%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2022
+2.58% +5.83%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 354
+2.92%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.34% +9.22%
Jan 1982 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 342
+0.36%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+2.63% +5.72%
Jan 1982 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 342
+3.01%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+5.54% +9.17%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2001
0.00%
0 out of 330
+0.42%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+2.72% +5.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 330
+3.41%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+5.73% +8.13%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 270
+0.84%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+2.94% +4.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 270
+3.78%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+5.80% +7.66%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2012
0.00%
0 out of 210
+1.23%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+2.88% +4.54%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2012
0.00%
0 out of 210
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