When holding the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~42 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 502 months (from April 1983 to January 2025). This negative serie is not closed yet.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -5.85%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-82.02%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 |
+0.08% |
+148.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000 |
49.69%
244 out of 491 |
-82.08%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 |
-2.21% |
+140.27%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000 |
53.16%
261 out of 491 |
-58.38%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 |
-0.20% |
+100.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2022 |
50.94%
244 out of 479 |
-58.87%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 |
-3.15% |
+89.19%
May 2020 - Apr 2022 |
57.41%
275 out of 479 |
-38.43%
May 2017 - Apr 2020 |
-1.42% |
+52.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2023 |
53.53%
250 out of 467 |
-39.40%
May 2017 - Apr 2020 |
-4.06% |
+43.97%
May 2020 - Apr 2023 |
60.81%
284 out of 467 |
-32.18%
May 2016 - Apr 2020 |
-2.56% |
+42.29%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
55.16%
251 out of 455 |
-33.35%
May 2016 - Apr 2020 |
-4.92% |
+35.31%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
64.62%
294 out of 455 |
-34.94%
May 2015 - Apr 2020 |
-2.91% |
+34.82%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008 |
59.82%
265 out of 443 |
-35.99%
May 2015 - Apr 2020 |
-5.41% |
+30.26%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008 |
70.65%
313 out of 443 |
-36.46%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 |
-2.09% |
+30.79%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 |
60.09%
259 out of 431 |
-37.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 |
-5.28% |
+26.69%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 |
68.45%
295 out of 431 |
-31.32%
May 2013 - Apr 2020 |
-1.11% |
+26.99%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 |
55.13%
231 out of 419 |
-32.29%
May 2013 - Apr 2020 |
-4.47% |
+23.58%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 |
66.11%
277 out of 419 |
-29.62%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 |
-1.19% |
+24.10%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006 |
53.56%
218 out of 407 |
-30.59%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 |
-3.94% |
+20.92%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006 |
61.67%
251 out of 407 |
-27.86%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 |
+0.07% |
+25.56%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 |
49.87%
197 out of 395 |
-28.92%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 |
-2.83% |
+22.04%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 |
62.03%
245 out of 395 |
-24.80%
May 2010 - Apr 2020 |
+0.55% |
+25.23%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 |
48.04%
184 out of 383 |
-26.02%
May 2010 - Apr 2020 |
-2.49% |
+21.65%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 |
60.31%
231 out of 383 |
-20.49%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 |
+1.65% |
+19.02%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008 |
48.52%
180 out of 371 |
-21.81%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 |
-1.11% |
+15.76%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008 |
56.87%
211 out of 371 |
-26.26%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 |
+0.74% |
+16.77%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008 |
48.47%
174 out of 359 |
-27.36%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 |
-2.37% |
+13.63%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008 |
57.38%
206 out of 359 |
-21.49%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 |
+1.95% |
+17.03%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 |
45.53%
158 out of 347 |
-22.79%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 |
-0.71% |
+13.88%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 |
55.04%
191 out of 347 |
-20.63%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 |
+1.86% |
+14.84%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
46.87%
157 out of 335 |
-22.01%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 |
-0.86% |
+11.72%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
54.33%
182 out of 335 |
-17.40%
May 2005 - Apr 2020 |
+1.80% |
+14.00%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 |
45.20%
146 out of 323 |
-18.92%
May 2005 - Apr 2020 |
-1.29% |
+10.92%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 |
53.87%
174 out of 323 |
-15.15%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 |
+2.26% |
+12.11%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 |
44.69%
139 out of 311 |
-16.78%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 |
-0.57% |
+9.07%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 |
51.77%
161 out of 311 |
-12.20%
May 2003 - Apr 2020 |
+1.84% |
+11.68%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 |
45.15%
135 out of 299 |
-13.91%
May 2003 - Apr 2020 |
-0.39% |
+8.64%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 |
51.17%
153 out of 299 |
-11.83%
May 2002 - Apr 2020 |
+0.55% |
+12.15%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008 |
47.39%
136 out of 287 |
-13.56%
May 2002 - Apr 2020 |
-2.27% |
+8.99%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008 |
55.05%
158 out of 287 |
-11.44%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 |
+0.91% |
+10.47%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008 |
44.73%
123 out of 275 |
-13.16%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 |
-1.70% |
+7.26%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008 |
58.91%
162 out of 275 |
-10.46%
May 2000 - Apr 2020 |
+0.88% |
+11.53%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 |
41.83%
110 out of 263 |
-12.25%
May 2000 - Apr 2020 |
-1.48% |
+8.17%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 |
57.79%
152 out of 263 |
-7.60%
May 1995 - Apr 2020 |
-0.73% |
+6.51%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2011 |
58.13%
118 out of 203 |
-9.51%
May 1995 - Apr 2020 |
-2.99% |
+3.50%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2011 |
75.86%
154 out of 203 |
-7.21%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020 |
-1.33% |
+1.49%
Aug 1984 - Jul 2014 |
79.02%
113 out of 143 |
-9.27%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020 |
-3.74% |
-1.27%
Aug 1984 - Jul 2014 |
100.00%
143 out of 143 |
United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns