United States Oil Fund (USO): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from April 1983 to June 2024 (~41 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024

Holding the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~41 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 495 months (from April 1983 to June 2024). This negative series is not closed yet.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to June 2024

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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been -12.74% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 30 June 2024 (~41 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.02% +148.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
-82.02%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
49.79%
241 out of 484
US Inflation Adjusted -2.32% +140.27%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
-82.08%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
53.10%
257 out of 484
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.47% +100.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2022
-58.38%
May 2018 - Apr 2020
51.48%
243 out of 472
US Inflation Adjusted -3.20% +89.19%
May 2020 - Apr 2022
-58.87%
May 2018 - Apr 2020
57.42%
271 out of 472
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.75% +52.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2023
-38.43%
May 2017 - Apr 2020
54.35%
250 out of 460
US Inflation Adjusted -4.29% +43.97%
May 2020 - Apr 2023
-39.40%
May 2017 - Apr 2020
61.74%
284 out of 460
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.71% +42.29%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
-32.18%
May 2016 - Apr 2020
56.03%
251 out of 448
US Inflation Adjusted -5.19% +35.31%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
-33.35%
May 2016 - Apr 2020
65.63%
294 out of 448
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.64% +34.82%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008
-34.94%
May 2015 - Apr 2020
59.17%
258 out of 436
US Inflation Adjusted -5.27% +30.26%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008
-35.99%
May 2015 - Apr 2020
70.18%
306 out of 436
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.02% +30.79%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008
-36.46%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
59.43%
252 out of 424
US Inflation Adjusted -5.09% +26.69%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008
-37.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
67.92%
288 out of 424
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.06% +26.99%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006
-31.32%
May 2013 - Apr 2020
54.37%
224 out of 412
US Inflation Adjusted -4.44% +23.58%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006
-32.29%
May 2013 - Apr 2020
65.53%
270 out of 412
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.89% +24.10%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006
-29.62%
May 2012 - Apr 2020
52.75%
211 out of 400
US Inflation Adjusted -3.85% +20.92%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006
-30.59%
May 2012 - Apr 2020
61.00%
244 out of 400
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.12% +25.56%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008
-27.86%
May 2011 - Apr 2020
49.23%
191 out of 388
US Inflation Adjusted -2.69% +22.04%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008
-28.92%
May 2011 - Apr 2020
61.34%
238 out of 388
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.75% +25.23%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
-24.80%
May 2010 - Apr 2020
47.07%
177 out of 376
US Inflation Adjusted -2.18% +21.65%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
-26.02%
May 2010 - Apr 2020
59.57%
224 out of 376
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.92% +19.02%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008
-20.49%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020
47.53%
173 out of 364
US Inflation Adjusted -0.99% +15.76%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008
-21.81%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020
56.04%
204 out of 364
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.95% +16.77%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008
-26.26%
May 2008 - Apr 2020
47.44%
167 out of 352
US Inflation Adjusted -2.12% +13.63%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008
-27.36%
May 2008 - Apr 2020
56.53%
199 out of 352
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.22% +17.03%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008
-21.49%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020
44.41%
151 out of 340
US Inflation Adjusted -0.66% +13.88%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008
-22.79%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020
54.12%
184 out of 340
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.32% +14.84%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008
-20.63%
May 2006 - Apr 2020
45.73%
150 out of 328
US Inflation Adjusted -0.52% +11.72%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008
-22.01%
May 2006 - Apr 2020
53.35%
175 out of 328
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.09% +14.00%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
-17.40%
May 2005 - Apr 2020
43.99%
139 out of 316
US Inflation Adjusted -0.96% +10.92%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
-18.92%
May 2005 - Apr 2020
52.85%
167 out of 316
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.53% +12.11%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008
-15.15%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020
43.42%
132 out of 304
US Inflation Adjusted -0.37% +9.07%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008
-16.78%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020
50.66%
154 out of 304
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.04% +11.68%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008
-12.20%
May 2003 - Apr 2020
43.84%
128 out of 292
US Inflation Adjusted -0.19% +8.64%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008
-13.91%
May 2003 - Apr 2020
50.00%
146 out of 292
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.66% +12.15%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008
-11.83%
May 2002 - Apr 2020
46.07%
129 out of 280
US Inflation Adjusted -1.84% +8.99%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008
-13.56%
May 2002 - Apr 2020
53.93%
151 out of 280
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.98% +10.47%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008
-11.44%
May 2001 - Apr 2020
43.28%
116 out of 268
US Inflation Adjusted -1.36% +7.26%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008
-13.16%
May 2001 - Apr 2020
57.84%
155 out of 268
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.15% +11.53%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008
-10.46%
May 2000 - Apr 2020
40.23%
103 out of 256
US Inflation Adjusted -1.28% +8.17%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008
-12.25%
May 2000 - Apr 2020
56.64%
145 out of 256
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns page.