United States Oil Fund (USO): Rolling Returns

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Period: April 1983 - January 2025 (~42 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~42 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 502 months (from April 1983 to January 2025). This negative serie is not closed yet.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 April 1983 - 31 January 2025 (~42 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -5.85%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 April 1983 - 31 January 2025 (~42 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 April 1983 - 31 January 2025 (~42 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-82.02%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
+0.08% +148.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
49.69%
244 out of 491
-82.08%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
-2.21% +140.27%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
53.16%
261 out of 491
-58.38%
May 2018 - Apr 2020
-0.20% +100.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2022
50.94%
244 out of 479
-58.87%
May 2018 - Apr 2020
-3.15% +89.19%
May 2020 - Apr 2022
57.41%
275 out of 479
-38.43%
May 2017 - Apr 2020
-1.42% +52.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2023
53.53%
250 out of 467
-39.40%
May 2017 - Apr 2020
-4.06% +43.97%
May 2020 - Apr 2023
60.81%
284 out of 467
-32.18%
May 2016 - Apr 2020
-2.56% +42.29%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
55.16%
251 out of 455
-33.35%
May 2016 - Apr 2020
-4.92% +35.31%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
64.62%
294 out of 455
-34.94%
May 2015 - Apr 2020
-2.91% +34.82%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008
59.82%
265 out of 443
-35.99%
May 2015 - Apr 2020
-5.41% +30.26%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008
70.65%
313 out of 443
-36.46%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
-2.09% +30.79%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008
60.09%
259 out of 431
-37.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
-5.28% +26.69%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008
68.45%
295 out of 431
-31.32%
May 2013 - Apr 2020
-1.11% +26.99%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006
55.13%
231 out of 419
-32.29%
May 2013 - Apr 2020
-4.47% +23.58%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006
66.11%
277 out of 419
-29.62%
May 2012 - Apr 2020
-1.19% +24.10%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006
53.56%
218 out of 407
-30.59%
May 2012 - Apr 2020
-3.94% +20.92%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006
61.67%
251 out of 407
-27.86%
May 2011 - Apr 2020
+0.07% +25.56%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008
49.87%
197 out of 395
-28.92%
May 2011 - Apr 2020
-2.83% +22.04%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008
62.03%
245 out of 395
-24.80%
May 2010 - Apr 2020
+0.55% +25.23%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
48.04%
184 out of 383
-26.02%
May 2010 - Apr 2020
-2.49% +21.65%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
60.31%
231 out of 383
-20.49%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020
+1.65% +19.02%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008
48.52%
180 out of 371
-21.81%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020
-1.11% +15.76%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008
56.87%
211 out of 371
-26.26%
May 2008 - Apr 2020
+0.74% +16.77%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008
48.47%
174 out of 359
-27.36%
May 2008 - Apr 2020
-2.37% +13.63%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008
57.38%
206 out of 359
-21.49%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020
+1.95% +17.03%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008
45.53%
158 out of 347
-22.79%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020
-0.71% +13.88%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008
55.04%
191 out of 347
-20.63%
May 2006 - Apr 2020
+1.86% +14.84%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008
46.87%
157 out of 335
-22.01%
May 2006 - Apr 2020
-0.86% +11.72%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008
54.33%
182 out of 335
-17.40%
May 2005 - Apr 2020
+1.80% +14.00%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
45.20%
146 out of 323
-18.92%
May 2005 - Apr 2020
-1.29% +10.92%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
53.87%
174 out of 323
-15.15%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020
+2.26% +12.11%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008
44.69%
139 out of 311
-16.78%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020
-0.57% +9.07%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008
51.77%
161 out of 311
-12.20%
May 2003 - Apr 2020
+1.84% +11.68%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008
45.15%
135 out of 299
-13.91%
May 2003 - Apr 2020
-0.39% +8.64%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008
51.17%
153 out of 299
-11.83%
May 2002 - Apr 2020
+0.55% +12.15%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008
47.39%
136 out of 287
-13.56%
May 2002 - Apr 2020
-2.27% +8.99%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008
55.05%
158 out of 287
-11.44%
May 2001 - Apr 2020
+0.91% +10.47%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008
44.73%
123 out of 275
-13.16%
May 2001 - Apr 2020
-1.70% +7.26%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008
58.91%
162 out of 275
-10.46%
May 2000 - Apr 2020
+0.88% +11.53%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008
41.83%
110 out of 263
-12.25%
May 2000 - Apr 2020
-1.48% +8.17%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008
57.79%
152 out of 263
-7.60%
May 1995 - Apr 2020
-0.73% +6.51%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2011
58.13%
118 out of 203
-9.51%
May 1995 - Apr 2020
-2.99% +3.50%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2011
75.86%
154 out of 203
-7.21%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020
-1.33% +1.49%
Aug 1984 - Jul 2014
79.02%
113 out of 143
-9.27%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020
-3.74% -1.27%
Aug 1984 - Jul 2014
100.00%
143 out of 143
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