United States Oil Fund (USO): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from April 1983 to April 2024 (~41 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024

Holding the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~41 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 493 months (from April 1983 to April 2024). This negative series is not closed yet.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to April 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been -12.28% (updated at Apr 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 30 April 2024 (~41 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.00% +148.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000 		-82.02%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 		50.00%
241 out of 482
US Inflation Adjusted -2.45% +140.27%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000 		-82.08%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 		53.32%
257 out of 482
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.42% +100.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2022 		-58.38%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 		51.28%
241 out of 470
US Inflation Adjusted -3.15% +89.19%
May 2020 - Apr 2022 		-58.87%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 		57.23%
269 out of 470
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.80% +52.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2023 		-38.43%
May 2017 - Apr 2020 		54.59%
250 out of 458
US Inflation Adjusted -4.33% +43.97%
May 2020 - Apr 2023 		-39.40%
May 2017 - Apr 2020 		62.01%
284 out of 458
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.76% +42.29%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 		-32.18%
May 2016 - Apr 2020 		56.28%
251 out of 446
US Inflation Adjusted -5.32% +35.42%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 		-33.35%
May 2016 - Apr 2020 		65.92%
294 out of 446
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -2.41% +34.82%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008 		-34.94%
May 2015 - Apr 2020 		58.99%
256 out of 434
US Inflation Adjusted -5.25% +30.26%
Jul 2003 - Jun 2008 		-35.99%
May 2015 - Apr 2020 		70.05%
304 out of 434
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.93% +30.79%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 		-36.46%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 		59.24%
250 out of 422
US Inflation Adjusted -5.09% +26.69%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 		-37.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 		67.77%
286 out of 422
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -1.11% +26.99%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 		-31.32%
May 2013 - Apr 2020 		54.39%
223 out of 410
US Inflation Adjusted -4.47% +23.58%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2006 		-32.29%
May 2013 - Apr 2020 		65.37%
268 out of 410
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return -0.79% +24.10%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006 		-29.62%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 		52.51%
209 out of 398
US Inflation Adjusted -3.84% +20.92%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2006 		-30.59%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 		60.80%
242 out of 398
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.19% +25.56%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 		-27.86%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 		48.96%
189 out of 386
US Inflation Adjusted -2.66% +22.04%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 		-28.92%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 		61.14%
236 out of 386
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.76% +25.23%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 		-24.80%
May 2010 - Apr 2020 		46.79%
175 out of 374
US Inflation Adjusted -2.10% +21.65%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 		-26.02%
May 2010 - Apr 2020 		59.36%
222 out of 374
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.92% +19.02%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008 		-20.49%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 		47.24%
171 out of 362
US Inflation Adjusted -0.91% +15.76%
Jul 1997 - Jun 2008 		-21.81%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 		55.80%
202 out of 362
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.99% +16.77%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008 		-26.26%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 		47.14%
165 out of 350
US Inflation Adjusted -1.96% +13.63%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2008 		-27.36%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 		56.29%
197 out of 350
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.26% +17.03%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 		-21.49%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 		44.08%
149 out of 338
US Inflation Adjusted -0.62% +13.88%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 		-22.79%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 		53.85%
182 out of 338
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.41% +14.84%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 		-20.63%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 		45.40%
148 out of 326
US Inflation Adjusted -0.49% +11.72%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 		-22.01%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 		53.07%
173 out of 326
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.21% +14.00%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 		-17.40%
May 2005 - Apr 2020 		43.63%
137 out of 314
US Inflation Adjusted -0.89% +10.92%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 		-18.92%
May 2005 - Apr 2020 		52.55%
165 out of 314
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.66% +12.11%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 		-15.15%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 		43.05%
130 out of 302
US Inflation Adjusted -0.05% +9.07%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 		-16.78%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 		50.33%
152 out of 302
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +2.71% +11.68%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 		-12.20%
May 2003 - Apr 2020 		43.45%
126 out of 290
US Inflation Adjusted +0.31% +8.64%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 		-13.91%
May 2003 - Apr 2020 		49.66%
144 out of 290
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.78% +12.15%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008 		-11.83%
May 2002 - Apr 2020 		45.68%
127 out of 278
US Inflation Adjusted -1.73% +8.99%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2008 		-13.56%
May 2002 - Apr 2020 		53.60%
149 out of 278
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.01% +10.47%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008 		-11.44%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 		42.86%
114 out of 266
US Inflation Adjusted -1.35% +7.26%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2008 		-13.16%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 		57.52%
153 out of 266
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.21% +11.53%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 		-10.46%
May 2000 - Apr 2020 		39.76%
101 out of 254
US Inflation Adjusted -1.14% +8.17%
Jul 1988 - Jun 2008 		-12.25%
May 2000 - Apr 2020 		56.30%
143 out of 254
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Historical Returns page.