When holding the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~29 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 107 months (from April 2000 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 108 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-42.24%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+12.53% |
+83.23%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
23.82%
81 out of 340 |
-42.25%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+10.56% |
+78.56%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
28.53%
97 out of 340 |
-25.82%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+12.55% |
+48.00%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
15.85%
52 out of 328 |
-27.31%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+9.42% |
+44.90%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
19.51%
64 out of 328 |
-15.51%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+10.95% |
+30.86%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
10.76%
34 out of 316 |
-17.31%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+8.44% |
+27.81%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
13.29%
42 out of 316 |
-8.38%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+10.57% |
+26.48%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
5.59%
17 out of 304 |
-10.65%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+7.83% |
+23.64%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
8.88%
27 out of 304 |
-4.62%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+9.58% |
+26.46%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
1.71%
5 out of 292 |
-7.07%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+6.95% |
+23.90%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
5.14%
15 out of 292 |
+2.16%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
+9.83% |
+23.71%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
+0.28%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2009 |
+7.22% |
+21.64%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
-0.61%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+9.81% |
+18.19%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2016 |
0.75%
2 out of 268 |
-3.11%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+6.94% |
+16.33%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
2.61%
7 out of 268 |
-0.19%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+10.04% |
+19.74%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
0.39%
1 out of 256 |
-2.52%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+7.43% |
+17.70%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
3.52%
9 out of 256 |
+0.59%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+9.64% |
+18.52%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 244 |
-1.88%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+7.12% |
+16.43%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
0.82%
2 out of 244 |
+3.31%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+9.84% |
+16.97%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
+0.70%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+7.38% |
+14.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
+3.20%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+9.79% |
+14.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 220 |
+0.68%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+7.43% |
+12.89%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 220 |
+5.52%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+9.41% |
+16.80%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 208 |
+3.03%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+7.19% |
+14.73%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 208 |
+5.49%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+9.50% |
+16.06%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 196 |
+3.59%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009 |
+7.20% |
+13.49%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 196 |
+5.68%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+9.52% |
+14.76%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 184 |
+3.76%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+7.18% |
+11.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 184 |
+6.68%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+9.57% |
+14.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 172 |
+4.64%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+7.20% |
+11.73%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 172 |
+6.88%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2020 |
+9.72% |
+13.89%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 160 |
+4.75%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2020 |
+7.34% |
+11.14%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 160 |
+8.04%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+9.55% |
+11.61%
Aug 1996 - Jul 2013 |
0.00%
0 out of 148 |
+5.40%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+7.25% |
+9.06%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2014 |
0.00%
0 out of 148 |
+6.87%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+9.62% |
+12.20%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 136 |
+4.70%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+7.24% |
+9.94%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 136 |
+7.43%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+9.79% |
+11.76%
Jan 2003 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 124 |
+5.28%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+7.36% |
+9.28%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 124 |
+6.67%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+9.99% |
+11.71%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 112 |
+4.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+7.50% |
+9.33%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 112 |
+9.04%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022 |
+9.94% |
+11.65%
Aug 1996 - Jul 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 52 |
+6.38%
May 1998 - Apr 2023 |
+7.19% |
+9.22%
Aug 1996 - Jul 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 52 |
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) ETF: Historical Returns