SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to May 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2024

Holding the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 187 months (from September 1929 to March 1945).

This means that every rolling period of 188 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to May 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 12.61% (updated at May 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 June 1994 - 31 May 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.67% +160.57%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-67.84%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
27.16%
497 out of 1830
US Inflation Adjusted +8.44% +179.03%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-64.30%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
30.60%
560 out of 1830
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.00% +55.64%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-54.64%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
19.97%
363 out of 1818
US Inflation Adjusted +7.37% +56.79%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-49.63%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
26.18%
476 out of 1818
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.89% +42.43%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-42.65%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
16.00%
289 out of 1806
US Inflation Adjusted +7.36% +40.21%
Sep 1926 - Aug 1929
-38.10%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
22.15%
400 out of 1806
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.47% +41.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-27.87%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
13.32%
239 out of 1794
US Inflation Adjusted +7.33% +40.55%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-23.65%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
20.18%
362 out of 1794
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.79% +35.15%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-17.97%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934
10.72%
191 out of 1782
US Inflation Adjusted +7.23% +33.81%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-13.67%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934
19.47%
347 out of 1782
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.52% +30.77%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-12.68%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
6.33%
112 out of 1770
US Inflation Adjusted +7.15% +30.52%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-10.78%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
16.21%
287 out of 1770
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.09% +25.75%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
-7.76%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
3.87%
68 out of 1758
US Inflation Adjusted +7.02% +25.54%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
-8.70%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
14.16%
249 out of 1758
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.69% +28.16%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-8.26%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
2.86%
50 out of 1746
US Inflation Adjusted +6.78% +28.53%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-6.82%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
12.60%
220 out of 1746
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.63% +22.86%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-7.16%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
2.65%
46 out of 1734
US Inflation Adjusted +7.05% +25.07%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-7.46%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
12.46%
216 out of 1734
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.59% +21.28%
Jun 1949 - May 1959
-5.38%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
3.54%
61 out of 1722
US Inflation Adjusted +6.89% +20.41%
Sep 1919 - Aug 1929
-5.89%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
11.61%
200 out of 1722
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.51% +20.03%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-4.92%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
2.51%
43 out of 1710
US Inflation Adjusted +7.07% +18.77%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-4.00%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
13.33%
228 out of 1710
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.59% +19.33%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
-4.40%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
1.71%
29 out of 1698
US Inflation Adjusted +7.03% +17.15%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
-3.96%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
12.01%
204 out of 1698
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution