SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from August 1953 to June 2024 (~71 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024

Holding the SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~71 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 128 months (from February 1964 to September 1974).

This means that every rolling period of 129 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

SPDR S&P 400 US MID CAP (SPY4.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to June 2024

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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 11.24% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR S&P 400 US MID CAP (SPY4.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2024 (~71 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.78% +101.37%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
-38.82%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
24.05%
202 out of 840
Euro Inflation Adjusted +10.24% +95.77%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
-41.00%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974
29.40%
247 out of 840
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +13.07% +51.75%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
-30.54%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
14.73%
122 out of 828
Euro Inflation Adjusted +10.51% +49.39%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
-34.97%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
19.57%
162 out of 828
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.67% +48.47%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983
-20.39%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974
14.34%
117 out of 816
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.81% +41.67%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983
-25.24%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974
17.89%
146 out of 816
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.52% +39.88%
Dec 1979 - Nov 1983
-12.89%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
9.45%
76 out of 804
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.72% +33.38%
Dec 1979 - Nov 1983
-18.09%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
14.68%
118 out of 804
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.87% +38.47%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1983
-11.63%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
5.43%
43 out of 792
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.51% +32.72%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1985
-16.48%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
13.01%
103 out of 792
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.40% +35.39%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
-10.88%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
5.13%
40 out of 780
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.82% +29.67%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
-15.26%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
12.69%
99 out of 780
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.88% +32.60%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
-7.25%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
4.56%
35 out of 768
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.17% +27.28%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
-11.35%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
13.41%
103 out of 768
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.74% +27.64%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1983
-3.98%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
4.76%
36 out of 756
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.54% +23.75%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
-7.14%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974
13.76%
104 out of 756
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.88% +30.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983
-3.14%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974
3.09%
23 out of 744
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.44% +24.41%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983
-6.97%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974
12.77%
95 out of 744
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.97% +28.18%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1984
-1.17%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974
0.41%
3 out of 732
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.60% +23.09%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
-5.05%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974
9.15%
67 out of 732
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.10% +25.92%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
+0.55%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 720
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.66% +21.15%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
-3.26%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1974
7.64%
55 out of 720
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.37% +23.90%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
+1.99%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 708
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.87% +19.50%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
-1.83%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974
3.25%
23 out of 708
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.34% +23.72%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
+1.02%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 696
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.62% +19.62%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
-2.67%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
2.01%
14 out of 696
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.99% +21.25%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
+2.58%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 684
Euro Inflation Adjusted +9.28% +17.40%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
-1.11%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
1.02%
7 out of 684
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.37% +21.78%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
+2.83%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 672
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.80% +17.94%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
-0.66%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
0.60%
4 out of 672
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.24% +18.62%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994
+3.29%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 660
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.42% +15.04%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
-0.09%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
0.15%
1 out of 660
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.04% +19.13%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1991
+5.21%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978
0.00%
0 out of 648
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.09% +15.44%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997
+1.39%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978
0.00%
0 out of 648
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.11% +19.83%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
+5.22%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 636
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.36% +16.64%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
+1.98%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 636
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.20% +19.63%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
+5.34%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1974
0.00%
0 out of 624
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.19% +15.79%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
+2.21%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1974
0.00%
0 out of 624
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.19% +19.90%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+6.04%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 612
Euro Inflation Adjusted +8.17% +16.85%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
+2.90%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974
0.00%
0 out of 612
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE) ETF: Historical Returns page.