When holding the SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~17 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 92 months (from March 2016 to October 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 93 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-12.12%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+2.07% |
+12.06%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 |
32.32%
64 out of 198 |
-18.76%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+0.26% |
+11.67%
May 2019 - Apr 2020 |
47.47%
94 out of 198 |
-7.42%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+2.04% |
+8.90%
Aug 2018 - Jul 2020 |
20.97%
39 out of 186 |
-13.46%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+0.31% |
+7.41%
May 2018 - Apr 2020 |
46.77%
87 out of 186 |
-5.00%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+1.71% |
+7.30%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2010 |
16.67%
29 out of 174 |
-10.14%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+0.27% |
+5.63%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2010 |
41.38%
72 out of 174 |
-3.08%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+1.84% |
+6.15%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2011 |
12.35%
20 out of 162 |
-7.84%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+0.26% |
+4.02%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2011 |
42.59%
69 out of 162 |
-0.35%
Jun 2019 - May 2024 |
+2.03% |
+5.95%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2012 |
4.00%
6 out of 150 |
-4.34%
Jun 2019 - May 2024 |
+0.16% |
+3.90%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2012 |
43.33%
65 out of 150 |
-0.15%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022 |
+2.04% |
+4.86%
Jun 2007 - May 2013 |
2.17%
3 out of 138 |
-3.68%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+0.27% |
+2.87%
Jun 2007 - May 2013 |
42.75%
59 out of 138 |
-0.12%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+1.90% |
+4.30%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2014 |
1.59%
2 out of 126 |
-3.50%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+0.13% |
+2.30%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2014 |
46.03%
58 out of 126 |
+0.18%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 |
+1.96% |
+3.97%
Jun 2007 - May 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 114 |
-3.01%
May 2016 - Apr 2024 |
+0.25% |
+2.21%
Jun 2007 - May 2015 |
36.84%
42 out of 114 |
+0.36%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+1.98% |
+3.98%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 102 |
-2.57%
May 2015 - Apr 2024 |
+0.17% |
+2.28%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2016 |
44.12%
45 out of 102 |
+0.42%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
+2.08% |
+3.43%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 90 |
-2.26%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+0.24% |
+1.74%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2017 |
42.22%
38 out of 90 |
+0.39%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+2.28% |
+3.12%
Aug 2009 - Jul 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 78 |
-2.17%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+0.23% |
+1.45%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2019 |
46.15%
36 out of 78 |
+0.54%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+2.20% |
+3.43%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 66 |
-1.98%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
-0.07% |
+1.94%
Aug 2008 - Jul 2020 |
50.00%
33 out of 66 |
+0.75%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+1.61% |
+3.86%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 54 |
-1.84%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
-0.82% |
+2.16%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2020 |
64.81%
35 out of 54 |
+1.15%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+1.50% |
+3.43%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 42 |
-1.36%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
-0.99% |
+1.48%
Jun 2007 - May 2021 |
71.43%
30 out of 42 |
+1.31%
May 2009 - Apr 2024 |
+1.72% |
+2.64%
Aug 2007 - Jul 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 30 |
-1.27%
May 2009 - Apr 2024 |
-0.72% |
+0.30%
Jun 2007 - May 2022 |
90.00%
27 out of 30 |
+1.65%
May 2008 - Apr 2024 |
+1.87% |
+2.34%
Jun 2007 - May 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 18 |
-0.74%
May 2008 - Apr 2024 |
-0.51% |
-0.08%
Jun 2007 - May 2023 |
100.00%
18 out of 18 |
+2.15%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2024 |
+2.27% |
+2.36%
Aug 2007 - Jul 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 6 |
-0.28%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2024 |
-0.19% |
-0.09%
Aug 2007 - Jul 2024 |
100.00%
6 out of 6 |
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) ETF: Historical Returns