SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: August 1953 - May 2025 (~72 years)
Currency: EUR
GLD is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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The minimum date range must be at least 24 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond May 2025.
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~72 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 313 months (from October 1980 to October 2006).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 314 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 May 2025 (~72 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 9.87%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 May 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 May 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-31.20%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2013
+2.70% +161.70%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
38.90%
331 out of 851
-33.37%
Sep 1975 - Aug 1976
+0.02% +149.45%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
49.94%
425 out of 851
-17.06%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2014
+2.73% +80.47%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1974
33.61%
282 out of 839
-20.91%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1976
+0.70% +70.33%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
47.44%
398 out of 839
-11.71%
Aug 1987 - Jul 1990
+2.89% +55.78%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
29.87%
247 out of 827
-14.84%
Sep 1989 - Aug 1992
+0.19% +50.37%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
48.61%
402 out of 827
-11.64%
Sep 1988 - Aug 1992
+3.06% +47.04%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
25.77%
210 out of 815
-14.74%
Sep 1988 - Aug 1992
+0.74% +41.32%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
44.29%
361 out of 815
-9.94%
Sep 1987 - Aug 1992
+3.06% +34.58%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1981
25.53%
205 out of 803
-12.70%
Sep 1987 - Aug 1992
+1.00% +28.74%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1981
41.97%
337 out of 803
-8.00%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991
+3.16% +28.59%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1982
25.16%
199 out of 791
-10.34%
Oct 1986 - Sep 1992
+0.99% +22.92%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1982
44.75%
354 out of 791
-8.06%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1992
+3.10% +32.49%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
25.80%
201 out of 779
-10.12%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1992
+0.74% +26.46%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
45.96%
358 out of 779
-8.34%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1991
+3.54% +33.41%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
22.16%
170 out of 767
-10.05%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1991
+1.76% +27.11%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
45.63%
350 out of 767
-7.89%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1992
+4.99% +31.01%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
19.74%
149 out of 755
-9.88%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1992
+2.91% +24.75%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
42.12%
318 out of 755
-6.38%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1993
+5.23% +28.63%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1980
19.52%
145 out of 743
-8.45%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1993
+3.23% +22.44%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1980
39.17%
291 out of 743
-5.15%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1992
+5.88% +25.70%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
18.06%
132 out of 731
-7.51%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1992
+3.74% +19.69%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
36.80%
269 out of 731
-5.18%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1992
+6.25% +24.03%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1983
17.11%
123 out of 719
-7.84%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1992
+3.86% +18.02%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
34.08%
245 out of 719
-4.24%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1998
+6.57% +22.69%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1983
17.54%
124 out of 707
-6.63%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+4.06% +16.77%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1983
31.26%
221 out of 707
-4.44%
Oct 1984 - Sep 1998
+6.91% +20.08%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1983
17.41%
121 out of 695
-6.54%
Oct 1984 - Sep 1998
+4.26% +15.15%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1980
29.64%
206 out of 695
-4.65%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1998
+7.36% +19.44%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1983
17.86%
122 out of 683
-6.73%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1998
+4.63% +14.10%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1983
26.94%
184 out of 683
-4.53%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1999
+7.47% +18.16%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1983
16.99%
114 out of 671
-6.56%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1999
+4.73% +13.10%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1983
24.74%
166 out of 671
-3.41%
Feb 1983 - Jan 2000
+7.22% +17.04%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1983
16.08%
106 out of 659
-5.84%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997
+4.60% +12.14%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1983
23.37%
154 out of 659
-3.48%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1998
+7.22% +16.02%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1983
14.99%
97 out of 647
-5.99%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1998
+4.65% +11.18%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1983
22.10%
143 out of 647
-3.19%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1999
+7.14% +15.14%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1983
13.23%
84 out of 635
-5.64%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1999
+4.50% +10.47%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1983
19.21%
122 out of 635
-2.28%
Jun 1983 - May 2003
+6.94% +14.34%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1983
11.40%
71 out of 623
-4.70%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2000
+4.34% +9.79%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1983
19.58%
122 out of 623
-1.35%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+6.39% +11.44%
Feb 1958 - Jan 1983
2.31%
13 out of 563
-3.80%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+4.06% +7.57%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1980
14.92%
84 out of 563
+1.75%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+5.94% +9.39%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1983
0.00%
0 out of 503
-0.68%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+3.29% +5.78%
Aug 1953 - Jul 1983
2.39%
12 out of 503
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