SPDR Blmbg Barclays Em Mkts Lcl Bd (EBND): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 2012 - January 2026 (~14 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the SPDR Blmbg Barclays Em Mkts Lcl Bd (EBND) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~14 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 158 months (from February 2012 to March 2025).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 159 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR BLMBG BARCLAYS EM MKTS LCL BD (EBND) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 2016 - 31 January 2026 (10 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 2012 - 31 January 2026 (~14 years)
All Data
(2012/01 - 2026/01)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

SPDR BLMBG BARCLAYS EM MKTS LCL BD (EBND) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 2012 - 31 January 2026 (~14 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-21.85%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+1.83% +15.82%
Jan 2025 - Dec 2025
43.67%
69 out of 158
-27.77%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
-0.75% +13.50%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2016
53.16%
84 out of 158
-11.99%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+0.17% +12.85%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2018
47.26%
69 out of 146
-17.73%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
-2.17% +10.28%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2018
63.01%
92 out of 146
-8.56%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022
-0.71% +10.05%
Nov 2022 - Oct 2025
53.73%
72 out of 134
-12.94%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022
-2.47% +6.96%
Nov 2022 - Oct 2025
70.15%
94 out of 134
-4.40%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016
-1.25% +6.19%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2019
59.84%
73 out of 122
-8.64%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024
-3.23% +3.98%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2019
82.79%
101 out of 122
-4.72%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
-0.44% +5.85%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2020
60.00%
66 out of 110
-8.17%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
-2.52% +3.81%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2020
87.27%
96 out of 110
-3.02%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
-0.08% +3.61%
Sep 2015 - Aug 2021
52.04%
51 out of 98
-6.29%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
-2.95% +1.28%
Sep 2015 - Aug 2021
88.78%
87 out of 98
-1.88%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
+0.01% +2.00%
Sep 2018 - Aug 2025
48.84%
42 out of 86
-4.90%
Feb 2018 - Jan 2025
-2.43% +0.33%
Feb 2014 - Jan 2021
98.84%
85 out of 86
-2.99%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+0.28% +1.80%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2023
39.19%
29 out of 74
-5.70%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
-2.72% -0.04%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2019
100.00%
74 out of 74
-2.78%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
-0.02% +2.15%
Dec 2016 - Nov 2025
50.00%
31 out of 62
-5.36%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
-2.84% +0.31%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2020
98.39%
61 out of 62
-2.58%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
-0.58% +2.83%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2026
72.00%
36 out of 50
-5.00%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
-3.24% -0.39%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2026
100.00%
50 out of 50
-1.70%
May 2013 - Apr 2024
-0.53% +1.26%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2026
81.58%
31 out of 38
-4.36%
May 2013 - Apr 2024
-3.11% -1.74%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2026
100.00%
38 out of 38
-1.10%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024
-0.34% +1.15%
Feb 2014 - Jan 2026
65.38%
17 out of 26
-3.68%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024
-2.90% -1.57%
Feb 2014 - Jan 2026
100.00%
26 out of 26
-0.35%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2025
+0.20% +0.60%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
21.43%
3 out of 14
-2.90%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2025
-2.40% -1.98%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
100.00%
14 out of 14
+0.83%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2026
+0.83% +1.06%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2025
0.00%
0 out of 2
-1.74%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2026
-1.74% -1.51%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2025
100.00%
2 out of 2
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