Simulation Results
Inflation Adj:
Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

The ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

  • Leveraged: 2x
  • Asset Class: Commodity
  • Commodity: Gold
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Table of contents

The ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author UGL Weight▾ Currency
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged The Lazy Team 25.00% USD
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Tyler 20.00% USD
Desert Portfolio 2x Leveraged Gyroscopic Investing 10.00% USD
All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged Ray Dalio 7.50% USD

Investment Returns as of Jul 31, 2026

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Capital Growth
Inflation Adj:
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Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Jul 31, 2026
1 Day Time ET(*) --- YTD
(7M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~58Y)
Investment Return 1YOnly 1 Asset
Rebalance has no effect 		--- --- -20.41 0.73 -34.89 29.78 24.15 14.23 7.23 3.89
US Inflation Adjusted Return -21.97 0.73 -36.06 25.71 19.25 10.56 4.58 -0.08
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to Jun 2026. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.24% , 5Y: 4.11% , 10Y: 3.31% , 30Y: 2.53%
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Investment Metrics as of Jul 31, 2026

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Advanced Metrics
1 April 1968 - 31 July 2026 (~58 years)
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Metrics as of Jul 31, 2026
YTD
(7M) 		1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~58Y)
Investment Return (%)
-20.41 0.73 -25.33 -34.89 29.78 42.90 24.15 14.23 10.74 7.23 3.89
Growth of 1$ 0.80 1.01 0.75 0.65 1.30 2.92 2.95 3.78 7.69 8.12 9.26
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
-21.97 0.73 -25.37 -36.06 25.71 38.76 19.25 10.56 8.03 4.58 -0.08
US Inflation (%) 2.01 0.00 0.05 1.83 3.24 2.98 4.11 3.31 2.50 2.53 3.97
Pending updates, the monthly inflation of Jul 2026 and beyond is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -78.39 -44.65 -44.65 -44.65 -44.65 -73.45 -73.45 -99.28
Start to Recovery (# months)
558* 5* 5* 5* 5* 163 163 558*
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2026 03 2026 03 2026 03 2011 09 2011 09 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 4 4 4 52 52 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 06 2026 06 2026 06 2026 06 2015 12 2015 12 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 1 1 111 111 304
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2025 03 2025 03 -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same		 -31.99 -41.48
same
same
same
Start to Recovery (# months)
24 46
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2026 03 2022 04 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 4 7 27 52 52 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 06 2026 06 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 17 19 111 111 304
End (yyyy mm) - - 2024 03 2024 05 2025 03 2025 03 -
Longest negative period (# months)
10* 10* 26 75 162 162 618
Start (yyyy mm) 2025 10 2025 10 2021 08 2016 08 2011 09 2011 09 1973 07
End (yyyy mm) 2026 07 2026 07 2023 09 2022 10 2025 02 2025 02 2024 12
Annualized Return (%) -4.85 -4.85 -5.84 -0.61 -0.27 -0.27 -0.21
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -94.93 -45.50 -45.50 -45.50 -49.23 -74.75 -75.72 -99.68
Start to Recovery (# months)
558* 5* 5* 5* 50 169 135 558*
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2026 03 2026 03 2020 08 2011 09 1996 08 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 4 4 27 52 56 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 06 2026 06 2026 06 2022 10 2015 12 2001 03 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 1 23 117 79 304
End (yyyy mm) - - - 2024 09 2025 09 2007 10 -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same		 -34.35
same
same		 -74.75
same
Start to Recovery (# months)
24 169
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2026 03 2022 04 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 4 7 27 52 52 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 06 2026 06 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 17 23 117 117 304
End (yyyy mm) - - 2024 03 2024 09 2025 09 2025 09 -
Longest negative period (# months)
10* 10* 31 86 192 268 700*
Start (yyyy mm) 2025 10 2025 10 2021 08 2016 08 2008 03 1996 08 1968 04
End (yyyy mm) 2026 07 2026 07 2024 02 2023 09 2024 02 2018 11 2026 07
Annualized Return (%) -7.66 -7.66 -4.02 -1.78 -0.40 -0.12 -0.08
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
RISK INDICATORS - MISC
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 49.65 35.49 32.44 29.65 34.24 32.59 38.57
Sharpe Ratio 0.52 1.08 0.64 0.40 0.27 0.15 -0.01
Sortino Ratio 0.68 1.47 0.92 0.59 0.39 0.23 -0.02
Ulcer Index 21.29 13.01 13.72 18.87 44.36 47.32 84.32
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.60 1.21 0.74 0.48 0.31 0.22 0.10
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.67 0.96 0.54 0.32 0.15 0.10 0.04
Zero or Positive Months (%)
66.66 66.66 56.66 51.66 52.08 50.83 49.14
Zero or Positive Months 8 24 34 62 125 183 344
Negative Months 4 12 26 58 115 177 356
# Rebalances 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 14.23 23.46 33.18 51.80
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -7.00 -7.00 -26.16
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 10.56 19.59 29.99 41.23
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -9.28 -9.28 -29.44
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of Jul 2026 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 193.77 79.68 41.81 33.18 15.00 7.23
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -51.65 -31.42 -22.47 -7.00 2.76
Positive Periods (%) 59.0 67.0 72.7 85.4 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 186.88 74.79 35.78 29.99 12.18 4.58
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -52.37 -32.80 -24.34 -9.28 0.62
Positive Periods (%) 57.3 61.5 70.4 72.1 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
14.45 23.74 31.78 34.92 55.25 57.49 33.39 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 18.36 30.51 41.35 41.92 61.99 64.09 42.51 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
20.86 34.84 47.49 47.78 66.50 68.29 50.57 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 24.94 41.91 57.48 50.96 67.54 71.32 51.58 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 65.51 16.23 8.06 3.90 3.10 2.57
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- 0.41 1.90
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Apr 1968 - Jul 2026)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 456.59 135.80 66.22 51.80 15.00 8.92
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -70.20 -44.67 -43.00 -26.16 -20.56 -9.33
Positive Periods (%) 51.6 50.0 53.5 50.2 54.2 24.9
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 388.80 116.25 55.93 41.23 12.18 6.24
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -72.43 -48.50 -46.29 -29.44 -23.58 -12.61
Positive Periods (%) 49.3 45.2 49.7 40.4 39.4 17.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
17.40 28.99 39.39 44.88 65.35 72.18 85.72 97.07 90.83
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 22.02 36.99 50.71 56.83 72.28 84.47 91.01 98.37 92.21
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
24.99 42.13 57.98 65.84 80.11 90.81 93.72 98.81 93.16
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 29.82 50.49 69.80 67.89 81.90 92.67 94.21 98.92 94.29
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 45.07 7.33 2.66 0.71 0.10 0.04
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- ---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. When cashflows are involved, it is calculated using the Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), based on the Modified Dietz formula.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration. When cashflows are involved, portfolio values are normalized by the invested capital (i.e. owned quotes) at each time step: this isolates the effect of market performance from capital contributions, avoiding misleading drawdowns caused by large inflows that artificially lift portfolio value and, as a result, the drawdowns match the ones without cash flows.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is based on the portfolio's composition currency:
    • USD → BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF)
    • CAD → CBIL.TO (CI First Asset Government 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF)
    • EUR → XEON.DE (Xtrackers II EUR Overnight Rate Swap ETF)
    • GBP → XSTR.L (Xtrackers II GBP Overnight Rate Swap ETF)
    • any other currency → defaults to BIL (USD)
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Correlations as of Jul 31, 2026

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 July 2026
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Correlation vs UGL
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
VTI
 US Total Stock Market 0.23 0.15 0.11 0.06
SPY
 US Large Cap Blend 0.24 0.16 0.12 0.05
IJH
 US Mid Cap Blend 0.28 0.15 0.07 0.07
IJR
 US Small Cap Blend 0.09 0.08 -0.02 0.05
VNQ
 US REITs 0.34 0.28 0.21 0.14
QQQ
 US Technology 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.01
PFF
 US Preferred Stocks 0.57 0.22 0.23 0.06
EFA
 EAFE Stocks 0.63 0.43 0.30 0.20
VT
 World All Countries 0.41 0.28 0.21 0.10
EEM
 Emerging Markets 0.48 0.47 0.38 0.28
BND
 US Total Bond Market 0.62 0.39 0.42 0.31
TLT
 US Long Term Treasuries 0.50 0.37 0.37 0.21
BIL
 US Cash 0.28 0.18 0.18 0.02
TIP
 US TIPS 0.62 0.39 0.43 0.36
LQD
 US Invest. Grade Bonds 0.59 0.36 0.38 0.26
HYG
 US High Yield Bonds 0.47 0.23 0.21 0.14
CWB
 US Convertible Bonds 0.22 0.20 0.15 0.12
BNDX
 International Bonds 0.50 0.34 0.35 0.26
EMB
 Emerg. Market Bonds 0.50 0.35 0.38 0.30
GLD
 Gold 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
DBC
 Commodities 0.05 0.10 0.04 0.29

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Drawdown periods
Inflation Adj:
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Rolling Return Analysis

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns — Over Time & Distribution

Holding Periods and Returns

Holding periods are based on rolling periods: each rolling window represents the return an investor would have achieved by holding the investment for a fixed period (e.g., 10, 20, or 30 years) starting from different dates.

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Inflation Adj:
Percentiles: – Changes pending. Click 'Update' to refresh

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Time to Target

What it shows: Months to reach your target capital from each historical entry point, accounting for your initial investment and periodic contributions.

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Time to reach your Target Capital

Monthly Returns and Seasonality

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD (UGL) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution

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Monthly Seasonality Analysis
58 full years are available for analysis

Returns, up to December 2008, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.

You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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Your practical guide to Building Wealth.
Master ETF Investing & maximize profits with Lazy Portfolios & Passive Strategies.
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