When holding the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~26 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 118 months (from May 1999 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 119 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-51.37%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+11.31% |
+78.41%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
27.48%
83 out of 302 |
-51.38%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+8.17% |
+73.86%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
32.12%
97 out of 302 |
-26.21%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+8.11% |
+46.78%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
19.31%
56 out of 290 |
-27.69%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+5.25% |
+43.70%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
28.62%
83 out of 290 |
-12.44%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+8.83% |
+27.27%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
14.03%
39 out of 278 |
-14.31%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+6.53% |
+24.29%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
19.42%
54 out of 278 |
-9.02%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+9.71% |
+22.58%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2007 |
8.65%
23 out of 266 |
-11.27%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+7.33% |
+19.25%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2007 |
15.04%
40 out of 266 |
-4.16%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+9.19% |
+22.42%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
3.54%
9 out of 254 |
-6.62%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+6.05% |
+19.95%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
9.84%
25 out of 254 |
+1.25%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
+8.32% |
+20.53%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 242 |
-0.30%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2013 |
+5.76% |
+18.52%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
0.83%
2 out of 242 |
-0.27%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+8.87% |
+15.50%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2007 |
0.43%
1 out of 230 |
-2.77%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+6.28% |
+12.51%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2007 |
1.30%
3 out of 230 |
+1.15%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+8.34% |
+15.85%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 218 |
-1.22%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+5.87% |
+13.88%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
0.92%
2 out of 218 |
+0.67%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2008 |
+8.30% |
+15.89%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 206 |
-1.81%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2008 |
+5.68% |
+13.85%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
2.43%
5 out of 206 |
+1.29%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+8.51% |
+13.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 194 |
-1.26%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+5.75% |
+11.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
2.58%
5 out of 194 |
+3.12%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2010 |
+8.10% |
+12.66%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 182 |
+0.64%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2010 |
+5.79% |
+10.43%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 182 |
+3.28%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
+8.04% |
+14.26%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 170 |
+1.66%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
+5.78% |
+12.24%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 170 |
+3.62%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+8.38% |
+14.35%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 158 |
+1.81%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+6.07% |
+11.82%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 158 |
+4.75%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+8.06% |
+13.29%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 146 |
+2.70%
May 1999 - Apr 2013 |
+5.93% |
+10.50%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 146 |
+5.08%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+7.95% |
+13.02%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 134 |
+3.06%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+5.76% |
+10.19%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 134 |
+5.60%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2015 |
+8.06% |
+11.80%
Feb 2009 - Jan 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 122 |
+3.31%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+5.85% |
+8.97%
Feb 2009 - Jan 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 122 |
+5.72%
May 1999 - Apr 2016 |
+8.25% |
+9.90%
Jun 2004 - May 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 110 |
+3.48%
May 1999 - Apr 2016 |
+5.83% |
+7.63%
Jun 2004 - May 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 110 |
+5.98%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+8.22% |
+10.86%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 98 |
+3.83%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+5.76% |
+8.64%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 98 |
+5.85%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+8.48% |
+11.02%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 86 |
+3.63%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+5.88% |
+8.43%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 86 |
+5.83%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+8.84% |
+10.20%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 74 |
+3.68%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+6.18% |
+7.58%
Nov 2001 - Oct 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 74 |
+7.10%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2024 |
+7.92% |
+8.37%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 14 |
+4.42%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2024 |
+5.23% |
+5.63%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 14 |
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) ETF: Historical Returns