iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1950 - May 2025 (~75 years)
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 200 months (from February 1965 to September 1981).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 201 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 20+YR EUR HEDGED (IUSV.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 May 2025 (~75 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -2.55%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 20+YR EUR HEDGED (IUSV.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 May 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 20+YR EUR HEDGED (IUSV.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 May 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-35.02%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+4.02% +63.37%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
30.31%
271 out of 894
-41.26%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+1.66% +63.19%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
42.84%
383 out of 894
-24.34%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+4.89% +44.96%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
22.22%
196 out of 882
-29.09%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+2.70% +43.51%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
34.01%
300 out of 882
-18.49%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+5.24% +26.48%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
14.83%
129 out of 870
-22.96%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+3.05% +25.49%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
28.39%
247 out of 870
-14.14%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+5.03% +25.87%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
12.35%
106 out of 858
-17.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+2.71% +23.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
26.92%
231 out of 858
-11.18%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+5.09% +23.76%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
11.70%
99 out of 846
-14.68%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+2.58% +20.93%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
29.43%
249 out of 846
-6.05%
Jun 2019 - May 2025
+5.08% +17.65%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987
11.63%
97 out of 834
-9.16%
Jun 2019 - May 2025
+2.37% +15.27%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
30.46%
254 out of 834
-5.64%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+5.55% +16.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
9.61%
79 out of 822
-8.44%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+2.78% +14.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
28.59%
235 out of 822
-4.30%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024
+5.57% +15.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
7.53%
61 out of 810
-7.05%
Aug 2016 - Jul 2024
+3.24% +13.65%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
28.15%
228 out of 810
-3.67%
Jun 2016 - May 2025
+5.68% +16.93%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
5.64%
45 out of 798
-6.38%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981
+3.49% +14.29%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
26.69%
213 out of 798
-3.49%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+6.04% +15.30%
Jun 1984 - May 1994
4.07%
32 out of 786
-5.93%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
+3.70% +12.62%
Jun 1984 - May 1994
30.28%
238 out of 786
-2.24%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+6.02% +15.50%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
3.23%
25 out of 774
-4.41%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982
+3.90% +12.82%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
29.20%
226 out of 774
-1.59%
Jun 2012 - May 2024
+6.05% +16.21%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
2.76%
21 out of 762
-3.97%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981
+3.82% +13.27%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
29.66%
226 out of 762
-1.65%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
+6.30% +14.38%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
1.20%
9 out of 750
-4.66%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+3.54% +11.66%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
29.87%
224 out of 750
+0.08%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+6.30% +14.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 738
-4.38%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+3.62% +11.79%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
29.54%
218 out of 738
-0.00%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981
+6.29% +13.76%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.14%
1 out of 726
-4.28%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981
+3.82% +10.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
27.55%
200 out of 726
-0.07%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+6.48% +13.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.14%
1 out of 714
-4.26%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+3.82% +10.82%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
26.47%
189 out of 714
+0.07%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+6.48% +13.95%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 702
-4.09%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+4.16% +11.26%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
27.21%
191 out of 702
+0.24%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981
+6.54% +12.50%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 690
-3.84%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981
+4.18% +9.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
23.33%
161 out of 690
+0.37%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981
+6.49% +12.51%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
0.00%
0 out of 678
-3.64%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981
+4.29% +10.13%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
23.30%
158 out of 678
+0.60%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+6.65% +12.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 666
-3.32%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+4.20% +9.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
21.77%
145 out of 666
+1.16%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981
+7.15% +11.07%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 606
-2.32%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981
+4.19% +8.57%
Jan 1984 - Dec 2008
15.84%
96 out of 606
+1.50%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981
+7.43% +11.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 546
-1.57%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981
+4.09% +8.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
13.00%
71 out of 546
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