When holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 200 months (from February 1965 to September 1981).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 201 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -2.55%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-35.02%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+4.02% |
+63.37%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
30.31%
271 out of 894 |
-41.26%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+1.66% |
+63.19%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
42.84%
383 out of 894 |
-24.34%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+4.89% |
+44.96%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
22.22%
196 out of 882 |
-29.09%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+2.70% |
+43.51%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
34.01%
300 out of 882 |
-18.49%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+5.24% |
+26.48%
Jun 1984 - May 1987 |
14.83%
129 out of 870 |
-22.96%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+3.05% |
+25.49%
Jun 1984 - May 1987 |
28.39%
247 out of 870 |
-14.14%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+5.03% |
+25.87%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
12.35%
106 out of 858 |
-17.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+2.71% |
+23.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
26.92%
231 out of 858 |
-11.18%
Jun 2020 - May 2025 |
+5.09% |
+23.76%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
11.70%
99 out of 846 |
-14.68%
Jun 2020 - May 2025 |
+2.58% |
+20.93%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
29.43%
249 out of 846 |
-6.05%
Jun 2019 - May 2025 |
+5.08% |
+17.65%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
11.63%
97 out of 834 |
-9.16%
Jun 2019 - May 2025 |
+2.37% |
+15.27%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987 |
30.46%
254 out of 834 |
-5.64%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+5.55% |
+16.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
9.61%
79 out of 822 |
-8.44%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+2.78% |
+14.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
28.59%
235 out of 822 |
-4.30%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+5.57% |
+15.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
7.53%
61 out of 810 |
-7.05%
Aug 2016 - Jul 2024 |
+3.24% |
+13.65%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
28.15%
228 out of 810 |
-3.67%
Jun 2016 - May 2025 |
+5.68% |
+16.93%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
5.64%
45 out of 798 |
-6.38%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981 |
+3.49% |
+14.29%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
26.69%
213 out of 798 |
-3.49%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025 |
+6.04% |
+15.30%
Jun 1984 - May 1994 |
4.07%
32 out of 786 |
-5.93%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 |
+3.70% |
+12.62%
Jun 1984 - May 1994 |
30.28%
238 out of 786 |
-2.24%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+6.02% |
+15.50%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
3.23%
25 out of 774 |
-4.41%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982 |
+3.90% |
+12.82%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
29.20%
226 out of 774 |
-1.59%
Jun 2012 - May 2024 |
+6.05% |
+16.21%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
2.76%
21 out of 762 |
-3.97%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981 |
+3.82% |
+13.27%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
29.66%
226 out of 762 |
-1.65%
Jun 2012 - May 2025 |
+6.30% |
+14.38%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
1.20%
9 out of 750 |
-4.66%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
+3.54% |
+11.66%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
29.87%
224 out of 750 |
+0.08%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+6.30% |
+14.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 738 |
-4.38%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+3.62% |
+11.79%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
29.54%
218 out of 738 |
-0.00%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+6.29% |
+13.76%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
0.14%
1 out of 726 |
-4.28%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+3.82% |
+10.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
27.55%
200 out of 726 |
-0.07%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+6.48% |
+13.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
0.14%
1 out of 714 |
-4.26%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+3.82% |
+10.82%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
26.47%
189 out of 714 |
+0.07%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+6.48% |
+13.95%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 702 |
-4.09%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+4.16% |
+11.26%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
27.21%
191 out of 702 |
+0.24%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+6.54% |
+12.50%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 690 |
-3.84%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+4.18% |
+9.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
23.33%
161 out of 690 |
+0.37%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+6.49% |
+12.51%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 678 |
-3.64%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+4.29% |
+10.13%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
23.30%
158 out of 678 |
+0.60%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+6.65% |
+12.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 666 |
-3.32%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+4.20% |
+9.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
21.77%
145 out of 666 |
+1.16%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+7.15% |
+11.07%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 606 |
-2.32%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+4.19% |
+8.57%
Jan 1984 - Dec 2008 |
15.84%
96 out of 606 |
+1.50%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+7.43% |
+11.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 546 |
-1.57%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+4.09% |
+8.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
13.00%
71 out of 546 |
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns