When holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3yr EUR Hedged (2B7S.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 168 months (from October 2009 to September 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 169 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3yr EUR Hedged (2B7S.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -0.12%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-6.51%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+3.96% |
+20.44%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982 |
12.30%
109 out of 886 |
-15.49%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+1.44% |
+14.86%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982 |
36.57%
324 out of 886 |
-3.79%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+4.45% |
+15.13%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1992 |
8.01%
70 out of 874 |
-10.37%
Dec 2020 - Nov 2022 |
+1.79% |
+12.29%
Sep 1984 - Aug 1986 |
29.52%
258 out of 874 |
-2.54%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2023 |
+4.66% |
+14.27%
May 1990 - Apr 1993 |
8.24%
71 out of 862 |
-7.82%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
+2.35% |
+9.94%
May 1990 - Apr 1993 |
29.81%
257 out of 862 |
-1.52%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+4.77% |
+12.61%
Apr 1989 - Mar 1993 |
7.18%
61 out of 850 |
-5.82%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+2.22% |
+8.87%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
26.59%
226 out of 850 |
-1.17%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+4.96% |
+11.62%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
7.76%
65 out of 838 |
-4.45%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+2.00% |
+9.07%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
23.87%
200 out of 838 |
-1.16%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022 |
+4.88% |
+10.30%
Jun 1989 - May 1995 |
7.14%
59 out of 826 |
-4.19%
Sep 2017 - Aug 2023 |
+1.92% |
+7.69%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987 |
21.67%
179 out of 826 |
-1.04%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2023 |
+4.86% |
+9.99%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1996 |
6.63%
54 out of 814 |
-3.92%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+1.89% |
+7.02%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
19.90%
162 out of 814 |
-0.85%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023 |
+5.05% |
+9.46%
Oct 1984 - Sep 1992 |
4.24%
34 out of 802 |
-3.48%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023 |
+1.97% |
+7.04%
Oct 1984 - Sep 1992 |
16.96%
136 out of 802 |
-0.73%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2023 |
+5.02% |
+9.78%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
4.18%
33 out of 790 |
-3.05%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+2.02% |
+7.31%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
14.68%
116 out of 790 |
-0.63%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2023 |
+5.00% |
+9.20%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993 |
4.24%
33 out of 778 |
-2.77%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+2.09% |
+6.71%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993 |
13.88%
108 out of 778 |
-0.51%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2023 |
+4.98% |
+9.80%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
3.92%
30 out of 766 |
-2.59%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2023 |
+2.11% |
+7.10%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
13.58%
104 out of 766 |
-0.39%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2023 |
+4.95% |
+9.93%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1993 |
3.71%
28 out of 754 |
-2.52%
Sep 2011 - Aug 2023 |
+2.19% |
+7.13%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
10.61%
80 out of 754 |
-0.23%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+4.97% |
+9.41%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994 |
3.23%
24 out of 742 |
-2.39%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023 |
+2.27% |
+6.59%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994 |
8.49%
63 out of 742 |
-0.01%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+4.98% |
+9.32%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1995 |
0.27%
2 out of 730 |
-2.15%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023 |
+2.24% |
+6.52%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1995 |
9.45%
69 out of 730 |
+0.15%
May 2009 - Apr 2024 |
+4.99% |
+8.95%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 718 |
-1.94%
May 2009 - Apr 2024 |
+2.18% |
+6.22%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
8.50%
61 out of 718 |
+0.49%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2024 |
+5.07% |
+8.80%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 706 |
-1.50%
May 2008 - Apr 2024 |
+2.17% |
+6.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
9.07%
64 out of 706 |
+0.89%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.11% |
+8.67%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 694 |
-1.21%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+2.22% |
+6.11%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
7.78%
54 out of 694 |
+0.86%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2022 |
+5.23% |
+8.35%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 682 |
-1.20%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2023 |
+2.16% |
+5.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
6.45%
44 out of 682 |
+0.84%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+5.26% |
+8.14%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 670 |
-1.25%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2023 |
+2.10% |
+5.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000 |
5.67%
38 out of 670 |
+0.90%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+5.31% |
+8.03%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 658 |
-1.20%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+2.17% |
+5.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
5.02%
33 out of 658 |
+1.72%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023 |
+5.54% |
+7.35%
Jun 1970 - May 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 598 |
-0.39%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023 |
+2.48% |
+4.64%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2005 |
4.01%
24 out of 598 |
+2.37%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+5.67% |
+6.83%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 538 |
+0.29%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+2.75% |
+4.18%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 538 |
iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3yr EUR Hedged (2B7S.DE) ETF: Historical Returns