When holding the iShares USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~42 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 102 months (from June 2001 to November 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 103 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2026 (~42 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2026/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.17%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2026 (~42 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2026/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2026 (~42 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-19.01%
Nov 1993 - Oct 1994
+4.96% +51.73%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1993
33.26%
162 out of 487
-21.20%
Nov 1993 - Oct 1994
+2.86% +46.67%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1993
40.66%
198 out of 487
-10.46%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987
+4.99% +24.35%
Aug 1999 - Jul 2001
26.32%
125 out of 475
-10.46%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987
+2.40% +21.55%
Aug 1999 - Jul 2001
36.84%
175 out of 475
-6.88%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987
+4.85% +24.28%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
13.82%
64 out of 463
-7.36%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987
+3.03% +20.06%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
33.05%
153 out of 463
-1.75%
May 2002 - Apr 2006
+5.33% +18.91%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
10.86%
49 out of 451
-4.93%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2025
+3.74% +17.16%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
26.39%
119 out of 451
-2.35%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2007
+5.41% +18.48%
Jun 1996 - May 2001
6.61%
29 out of 439
-4.40%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2007
+3.58% +16.52%
Jun 1996 - May 2001
19.36%
85 out of 439
-1.82%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+6.06% +17.19%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001
4.68%
20 out of 427
-4.05%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+4.03% +15.23%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001
15.69%
67 out of 427
-1.60%
Jun 2001 - May 2008
+5.66% +15.67%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001
2.41%
10 out of 415
-3.84%
Jun 2001 - May 2008
+3.92% +13.59%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001
14.46%
60 out of 415
-0.20%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+5.94% +14.41%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
0.50%
2 out of 403
-2.20%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+3.91% +12.07%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
14.64%
59 out of 403
+1.10%
May 2002 - Apr 2011
+5.56% +14.55%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2001
0.00%
0 out of 391
-1.19%
Mar 2017 - Feb 2026
+3.56% +12.10%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2001
8.95%
35 out of 391
+1.22%
Jun 2001 - May 2011
+5.34% +14.59%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 379
-0.84%
Jun 2001 - May 2011
+3.69% +11.91%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
5.54%
21 out of 379
+1.76%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2026
+5.55% +14.20%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001
0.00%
0 out of 367
-0.70%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2026
+3.79% +11.55%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001
1.63%
6 out of 367
+1.97%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2014
+5.74% +12.95%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2002
0.00%
0 out of 355
+0.03%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2014
+3.97% +10.30%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2002
0.00%
0 out of 355
+2.18%
Jun 2001 - May 2014
+5.94% +12.87%
Jun 1988 - May 2001
0.00%
0 out of 343
+0.04%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2025
+4.12% +10.01%
Jun 1988 - May 2001
0.00%
0 out of 343
+2.25%
Jun 2012 - May 2026
+5.88% +12.35%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 331
+0.08%
Jun 2012 - May 2026
+3.95% +9.57%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 331
+3.01%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025
+5.69% +11.40%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2002
0.00%
0 out of 319
+0.82%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025
+3.77% +8.68%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2002
0.00%
0 out of 319
+2.55%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018
+5.70% +10.05%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2003
0.00%
0 out of 307
+0.91%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018
+3.74% +7.39%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2003
0.00%
0 out of 307
+2.81%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018
+5.95% +9.50%
Jun 1988 - May 2005
0.00%
0 out of 295
+1.10%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018
+4.04% +6.85%
Jun 1988 - May 2005
0.00%
0 out of 295
+3.12%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2019
+6.19% +9.78%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005
0.00%
0 out of 283
+1.44%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2019
+4.20% +7.14%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005
0.00%
0 out of 283
+3.11%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2021
+6.55% +8.64%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006
0.00%
0 out of 271
+1.54%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2021
+4.52% +6.06%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 271
+3.11%
Jun 2001 - May 2021
+6.57% +8.69%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2010
0.00%
0 out of 259
+1.29%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2025
+4.37% +6.30%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2012
0.00%
0 out of 259
+2.88%
Jun 2001 - May 2026
+6.39% +8.42%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2012
0.00%
0 out of 199
+0.72%
Jun 2001 - May 2026
+4.40% +5.99%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015
0.00%
0 out of 199
+4.98%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2026
+6.59% +7.32%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2017
0.00%
0 out of 139
+2.92%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2026
+4.53% +5.32%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020
0.00%
0 out of 139
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