When holding the iShares USD High Yield Corporate Bond (IS0R.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~73 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 134 months (from February 1998 to March 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 135 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES USD HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND (IS0R.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2026 (~73 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1953/08 - 2026/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.68%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES USD HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND (IS0R.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2026 (~73 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1953/08 - 2026/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES USD HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND (IS0R.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2026 (~73 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-26.23%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990
+6.10% +58.72%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
23.61%
204 out of 864
-29.43%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990
+3.40% +51.40%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
33.80%
292 out of 864
-13.08%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2009
+5.78% +43.17%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
13.03%
111 out of 852
-15.72%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1991
+3.26% +38.52%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
28.05%
239 out of 852
-9.94%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2008
+5.59% +38.49%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1984
10.12%
85 out of 840
-12.01%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2008
+3.21% +32.61%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1984
24.40%
205 out of 840
-5.40%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990
+5.94% +34.30%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
8.21%
68 out of 828
-7.68%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990
+3.28% +29.31%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1985
19.81%
164 out of 828
-3.93%
Nov 1985 - Oct 1990
+5.98% +32.86%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
6.62%
54 out of 816
-5.65%
Dec 2003 - Nov 2008
+3.28% +27.62%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
15.20%
124 out of 816
-4.07%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+6.01% +24.97%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
5.22%
42 out of 804
-6.25%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+3.40% +19.74%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
13.68%
110 out of 804
-4.66%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+6.05% +21.96%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
3.41%
27 out of 792
-6.59%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+3.43% +17.07%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
10.98%
87 out of 792
-4.00%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2009
+6.17% +19.00%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1985
3.33%
26 out of 780
-6.00%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2009
+3.57% +14.88%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1986
8.46%
66 out of 780
-2.12%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.24% +19.65%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1984
2.08%
16 out of 768
-4.17%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+3.72% +14.77%
Mar 1976 - Feb 1985
9.24%
71 out of 768
-0.82%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009
+6.39% +20.55%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1985
0.53%
4 out of 756
-2.88%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009
+3.68% +15.77%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1985
9.79%
74 out of 756
-0.37%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009
+6.38% +17.36%
Jun 1975 - May 1986
0.13%
1 out of 744
-2.33%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009
+3.90% +13.27%
Jun 1975 - May 1986
6.18%
46 out of 744
+1.42%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+6.35% +16.17%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1985
0.00%
0 out of 732
-1.10%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1975
+4.24% +11.55%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1987
2.73%
20 out of 732
+2.55%
Jun 2001 - May 2014
+6.49% +14.89%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 720
-0.78%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1975
+4.31% +11.39%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1993
1.11%
8 out of 720
+3.08%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+6.54% +14.47%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
0.00%
0 out of 708
-0.60%
Mar 1961 - Feb 1975
+4.47% +11.17%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
1.13%
8 out of 708
+2.57%
Dec 1993 - Nov 2008
+6.67% +13.74%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1993
0.00%
0 out of 696
-0.19%
Mar 1960 - Feb 1975
+4.47% +10.20%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1993
0.57%
4 out of 696
+3.43%
Feb 1959 - Jan 1975
+6.57% +12.95%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996
0.00%
0 out of 684
-0.03%
Mar 1959 - Feb 1975
+4.24% +9.78%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.29%
2 out of 684
+3.47%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018
+6.60% +13.61%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 672
+0.52%
Mar 1958 - Feb 1975
+4.23% +10.56%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 672
+3.84%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018
+6.45% +13.66%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 660
+0.80%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1980
+4.09% +10.62%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 660
+3.68%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020
+6.46% +13.26%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 648
+0.55%
Mar 1956 - Feb 1975
+4.19% +10.15%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 648
+3.67%
Jun 2001 - May 2021
+6.66% +13.41%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 636
+0.61%
Feb 1955 - Jan 1975
+4.34% +10.56%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 636
+3.94%
Jun 2001 - May 2026
+8.02% +12.41%
Mar 1975 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 576
+1.49%
Mar 1955 - Feb 1980
+4.84% +9.26%
May 1975 - Apr 2000
0.00%
0 out of 576
+5.43%
Aug 1993 - Jul 2023
+8.24% +10.90%
Sep 1970 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 516
+3.30%
Aug 1993 - Jul 2023
+4.96% +7.28%
Jul 1975 - Jun 2005
0.00%
0 out of 516
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