iShares U.S. Treasury Bond (GOVT): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 2013 to January 2024 (~11 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 January 2024

Holding the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond (GOVT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~11 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 107 months (from December 2014 to October 2023).

This means that every rolling period of 108 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond (GOVT) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES U.S. TREASURY BOND (GOVT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 February 2014 - 31 January 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 2013 - 31 January 2024 (~11 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -14.21 11/2021
10/2022
0.85$ -3.94 0.96$ 0.20 1.00$ 7.06 1.07$ 13.96 05/2019
04/2020
1.13$ 1.09 48.62%
2Y -8.46 11/2020
10/2022
0.83$ -5.85 0.88$ 1.47 1.02$ 4.48 1.09$ 9.57 08/2018
07/2020
1.20$ -3.92 36.08%
3Y -5.98 11/2020
10/2023
0.83$ -3.68 0.89$ 1.30 1.03$ 4.86 1.15$ 5.77 08/2017
07/2020
1.18$ -3.70 25.88%
4Y -2.97 11/2019
10/2023
0.88$ -0.34 0.98$ 1.50 1.06$ 3.45 1.14$ 4.42 12/2016
11/2020
1.18$ -1.79 19.18%
5Y -0.57 11/2017
10/2022
0.97$ 0.17 1.00$ 2.18 1.11$ 3.46 1.18$ 4.00 08/2015
07/2020
1.21$ 0.27 9.84%
6Y -0.64 11/2016
10/2022
0.96$ -0.02 0.99$ 1.93 1.12$ 3.26 1.21$ 3.89 08/2014
07/2020
1.25$ 0.66 14.29%
7Y -0.66 11/2016
10/2023
0.95$ -0.14 0.99$ 0.91 1.06$ 2.60 1.19$ 3.08 02/2014
01/2021
1.23$ 0.64 18.92%
8Y -0.18 11/2015
10/2023
0.98$ 0.23 1.01$ 0.51 1.04$ 1.29 1.10$ 2.26 02/2014
01/2022
1.19$ 0.44 8.00%
9Y 0.09 11/2014
10/2023
1.00$ 0.33 1.03$ 0.70 1.06$ 0.98 1.09$ 1.04 04/2014
03/2023
1.09$ 0.40 0.00%
10Y 0.99 02/2014
01/2024
1.10$ 0.99 1.10$ 0.99 1.10$ 0.99 1.10$ 0.99 02/2014
01/2024
1.10$ 0.99 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -20.38 11/2021
10/2022
0.79$ -8.52 0.91$ -1.81 0.98$ 5.41 1.05$ 13.57 05/2019
04/2020
1.13$ -1.96 55.96%
2Y -14.44 11/2020
10/2022
0.73$ -11.33 0.78$ -0.66 0.98$ 3.55 1.07$ 8.03 08/2018
07/2020
1.16$ -8.25 57.73%
3Y -11.07 11/2020
10/2023
0.70$ -8.29 0.77$ -0.60 0.98$ 2.40 1.07$ 3.95 05/2017
04/2020
1.12$ -8.86 54.12%
4Y -7.21 11/2019
10/2023
0.74$ -4.44 0.83$ -0.20 0.99$ 1.47 1.06$ 2.48 12/2016
11/2020
1.10$ -6.09 53.42%
5Y -4.25 11/2017
10/2022
0.80$ -3.73 0.82$ -0.04 0.99$ 1.55 1.07$ 2.37 07/2015
06/2020
1.12$ -3.74 50.82%
6Y -4.19 11/2017
10/2023
0.77$ -3.58 0.80$ -0.96 0.94$ 1.69 1.10$ 2.44 08/2014
07/2020
1.15$ -2.94 57.14%
7Y -4.03 10/2016
09/2023
0.74$ -3.50 0.77$ -2.11 0.86$ 0.70 1.04$ 1.48 02/2014
01/2021
1.10$ -2.75 70.27%
8Y -3.35 11/2015
10/2023
0.76$ -2.83 0.79$ -2.51 0.81$ -1.38 0.89$ -0.05 02/2014
01/2022
0.99$ -2.83 100.00%
9Y -2.75 11/2014
10/2023
0.77$ -2.64 0.78$ -2.05 0.82$ -1.74 0.85$ -1.68 04/2014
03/2023
0.85$ -2.64 100.00%
10Y -1.74 02/2014
01/2024
0.83$ -1.74 0.83$ -1.74 0.83$ -1.74 0.83$ -1.74 02/2014
01/2024
0.83$ -1.74 100.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -14.21 11/2021
10/2022
0.85$ -3.33 0.96$ 0.26 1.00$ 6.64 1.06$ 13.96 05/2019
04/2020
1.13$ 1.09 47.54%
2Y -8.46 11/2020
10/2022
0.83$ -5.77 0.88$ 1.68 1.03$ 4.30 1.08$ 9.57 08/2018
07/2020
1.20$ -3.92 31.82%
3Y -5.98 11/2020
10/2023
0.83$ -2.78 0.91$ 1.85 1.05$ 4.82 1.15$ 5.77 08/2017
07/2020
1.18$ -3.70 22.45%
4Y -2.97 11/2019
10/2023
0.88$ -0.23 0.99$ 1.54 1.06$ 3.37 1.14$ 4.42 12/2016
11/2020
1.18$ -1.79 16.28%
5Y -0.57 11/2017
10/2022
0.97$ 0.27 1.01$ 1.72 1.08$ 3.05 1.16$ 4.00 08/2015
07/2020
1.21$ 0.27 8.11%
6Y -0.64 11/2016
10/2022
0.96$ 0.09 1.00$ 1.98 1.12$ 3.20 1.20$ 3.89 08/2014
07/2020
1.25$ 0.66 11.29%
7Y -0.66 11/2016
10/2023
0.95$ 0.05 1.00$ 1.81 1.13$ 3.21 1.24$ 3.62 08/2013
07/2020
1.28$ 0.64 14.00%
8Y -0.18 11/2015
10/2023
0.98$ 0.32 1.02$ 1.11 1.09$ 2.57 1.22$ 2.80 09/2013
08/2021
1.24$ 0.44 5.26%
9Y 0.09 11/2014
10/2023
1.00$ 0.40 1.03$ 0.82 1.07$ 1.39 1.13$ 2.16 01/2013
12/2021
1.21$ 0.40 0.00%
10Y 0.37 11/2013
10/2023
1.03$ 0.49 1.04$ 0.78 1.08$ 0.84 1.08$ 1.14 01/2014
12/2023
1.11$ 0.99 0.00%
11Y 0.80 01/2013
12/2023
1.09$ 0.80 1.09$ 0.80 1.09$ 0.84 1.09$ 0.84 02/2013
01/2024
1.09$ 0.84 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -20.38 11/2021
10/2022
0.79$ -8.25 0.91$ -1.71 0.98$ 5.30 1.05$ 13.57 05/2019
04/2020
1.13$ -1.96 55.74%
2Y -14.44 11/2020
10/2022
0.73$ -10.99 0.79$ -0.25 0.99$ 3.38 1.06$ 8.03 08/2018
07/2020
1.16$ -8.25 51.82%
3Y -11.07 11/2020
10/2023
0.70$ -7.42 0.79$ 0.20 1.00$ 2.40 1.07$ 3.95 05/2017
04/2020
1.12$ -8.86 46.94%
4Y -7.21 11/2019
10/2023
0.74$ -4.25 0.84$ -0.08 0.99$ 1.18 1.04$ 2.48 12/2016
11/2020
1.10$ -6.09 51.16%
5Y -4.25 11/2017
10/2022
0.80$ -3.49 0.83$ -0.23 0.98$ 1.24 1.06$ 2.37 07/2015
06/2020
1.12$ -3.74 56.76%
6Y -4.19 11/2017
10/2023
0.77$ -3.38 0.81$ -0.06 0.99$ 1.56 1.09$ 2.44 08/2014
07/2020
1.15$ -2.94 53.23%
7Y -4.03 10/2016
09/2023
0.74$ -3.15 0.79$ -0.91 0.93$ 1.64 1.12$ 2.09 08/2013
07/2020
1.15$ -2.75 52.00%
8Y -3.35 11/2015
10/2023
0.76$ -2.78 0.79$ -1.61 0.87$ 0.53 1.04$ 1.00 02/2013
01/2021
1.08$ -2.83 65.79%
9Y -2.75 11/2014
10/2023
0.77$ -2.50 0.79$ -1.88 0.84$ -1.23 0.89$ -0.02 01/2013
12/2021
0.99$ -2.64 100.00%
10Y -2.35 11/2013
10/2023
0.78$ -2.20 0.80$ -1.86 0.82$ -1.77 0.83$ -1.60 01/2014
12/2023
0.85$ -1.74 100.00%
11Y -1.82 01/2013
12/2023
0.81$ -1.82 0.81$ -1.82 0.81$ -1.79 0.81$ -1.79 02/2013
01/2024
0.81$ -1.79 100.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.26% +13.96%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
-14.21%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
47.54%
58 out of 122
US Inflation Adjusted -1.71% +13.57%
May 2019 - Apr 2020
-20.38%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
55.74%
68 out of 122
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.68% +9.57%
Aug 2018 - Jul 2020
-8.46%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
31.82%
35 out of 110
US Inflation Adjusted -0.25% +8.03%
Aug 2018 - Jul 2020
-14.44%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
51.82%
57 out of 110
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.85% +5.77%
Aug 2017 - Jul 2020
-5.98%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
22.45%
22 out of 98
US Inflation Adjusted +0.20% +3.95%
May 2017 - Apr 2020
-11.07%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
46.94%
46 out of 98
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.54% +4.42%
Dec 2016 - Nov 2020
-2.97%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
16.28%
14 out of 86
US Inflation Adjusted -0.08% +2.48%
Dec 2016 - Nov 2020
-7.21%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
51.16%
44 out of 86
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.72% +4.00%
Aug 2015 - Jul 2020
-0.57%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
8.11%
6 out of 74
US Inflation Adjusted -0.23% +2.37%
Jul 2015 - Jun 2020
-4.25%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
56.76%
42 out of 74
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.98% +3.89%
Aug 2014 - Jul 2020
-0.64%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022
11.29%
7 out of 62
US Inflation Adjusted -0.06% +2.44%
Aug 2014 - Jul 2020
-4.19%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
53.23%
33 out of 62
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.81% +3.62%
Aug 2013 - Jul 2020
-0.66%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
14.00%
7 out of 50
US Inflation Adjusted -0.91% +2.09%
Aug 2013 - Jul 2020
-4.03%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
52.00%
26 out of 50
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.11% +2.80%
Sep 2013 - Aug 2021
-0.18%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
5.26%
2 out of 38
US Inflation Adjusted -1.61% +1.00%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2021
-3.35%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
65.79%
25 out of 38
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.82% +2.16%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2021
+0.09%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 26
US Inflation Adjusted -1.88% -0.02%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2021
-2.75%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
100.00%
26 out of 26
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.78% +1.14%
Jan 2014 - Dec 2023
+0.37%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 14
US Inflation Adjusted -1.86% -1.60%
Jan 2014 - Dec 2023
-2.35%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
100.00%
14 out of 14
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.80% +0.84%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2024
+0.80%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2023
0.00%
0 out of 2
US Inflation Adjusted -1.82% -1.79%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2024
-1.82%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2023
100.00%
2 out of 2
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond (GOVT) ETF: Historical Returns page.