iShares US Aggregate Bond EUR Hedged (CEBW.DE): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1950 - June 2025 (~76 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the iShares US Aggregate Bond EUR Hedged (CEBW.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 142 months (from January 2012 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 143 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES US AGGREGATE BOND EUR HEDGED (CEBW.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.22%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES US AGGREGATE BOND EUR HEDGED (CEBW.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES US AGGREGATE BOND EUR HEDGED (CEBW.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-16.64%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+4.48% +28.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982
19.55%
175 out of 895
-24.64%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+2.18% +25.89%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
33.41%
299 out of 895
-9.41%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+4.83% +21.58%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
11.33%
100 out of 883
-15.29%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+2.61% +20.50%
Sep 1984 - Aug 1986
27.29%
241 out of 883
-6.66%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+4.58% +17.26%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993
8.38%
73 out of 871
-11.78%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+2.50% +14.23%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1987
23.08%
201 out of 871
-3.95%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+4.93% +15.49%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
6.64%
57 out of 859
-8.27%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024
+2.07% +13.39%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
18.98%
163 out of 859
-2.48%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+4.91% +16.07%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
5.90%
50 out of 847
-6.31%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+2.34% +13.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
19.01%
161 out of 847
-1.89%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+4.80% +12.72%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
4.31%
36 out of 835
-5.06%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+2.52% +10.44%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
20.60%
172 out of 835
-1.69%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+4.75% +11.82%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
4.01%
33 out of 823
-4.61%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+2.54% +9.75%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
19.20%
158 out of 823
-1.05%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+4.80% +11.70%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1992
4.19%
34 out of 811
-3.70%
May 2016 - Apr 2024
+2.59% +9.33%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1992
17.14%
139 out of 811
-0.76%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+4.76% +12.38%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
3.00%
24 out of 799
-3.47%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1981
+2.50% +9.85%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
13.64%
109 out of 799
-0.34%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
+4.77% +11.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
1.78%
14 out of 787
-3.36%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
+2.54% +8.82%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1992
14.36%
113 out of 787
-0.45%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+4.74% +12.02%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
0.65%
5 out of 775
-2.51%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982
+2.56% +9.29%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
16.13%
125 out of 775
+0.02%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+4.76% +12.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 763
-2.07%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+2.64% +9.48%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
16.38%
125 out of 763
+0.35%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
+4.79% +11.36%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994
0.00%
0 out of 751
-2.27%
Sep 1968 - Aug 1981
+2.69% +8.50%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994
12.78%
96 out of 751
+0.87%
Jun 2011 - May 2025
+5.15% +11.40%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 739
-1.87%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+2.58% +8.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
10.96%
81 out of 739
+1.21%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025
+4.98% +10.90%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 727
-1.57%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981
+2.46% +8.12%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
10.18%
74 out of 727
+1.55%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+4.97% +10.75%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 715
-1.65%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+2.40% +8.04%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
9.79%
70 out of 715
+1.91%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.08% +10.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 703
-1.60%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+2.43% +8.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
8.11%
57 out of 703
+1.95%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+5.16% +9.94%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 691
-1.45%
Sep 1963 - Aug 1981
+2.38% +7.42%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
6.80%
47 out of 691
+1.84%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.38% +9.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 679
-1.33%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981
+2.48% +7.11%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
8.10%
55 out of 679
+2.03%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+5.52% +9.77%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 667
-1.12%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+2.60% +7.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
6.30%
42 out of 667
+2.72%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+5.93% +8.63%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 607
-0.20%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981
+3.02% +6.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.82%
5 out of 607
+3.34%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
+6.28% +8.29%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 547
+0.36%
Sep 1951 - Aug 1981
+3.43% +5.90%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 547
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