iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth (IJK): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1927 - June 2025 (~99 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth (IJK) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~99 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 231 months (from September 1929 to November 1948).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 232 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES S&P MID-CAP 400 GROWTH (IJK) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1927 - 30 June 2025 (~99 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1927/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 9.00%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES S&P MID-CAP 400 GROWTH (IJK) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1927 - 30 June 2025 (~99 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1927/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES S&P MID-CAP 400 GROWTH (IJK) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1927 - 30 June 2025 (~99 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-69.06%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+12.83% +156.52%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
26.22%
307 out of 1171
-65.65%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+9.48% +174.70%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
32.02%
375 out of 1171
-56.91%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+12.55% +60.86%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
18.38%
213 out of 1159
-52.15%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+8.65% +62.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
25.37%
294 out of 1159
-46.94%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+11.62% +47.09%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
16.04%
184 out of 1147
-42.73%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+8.07% +43.07%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
21.71%
249 out of 1147
-32.80%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+11.54% +43.28%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
14.36%
163 out of 1135
-28.87%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+7.83% +42.76%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
21.76%
247 out of 1135
-22.36%
Jul 1927 - Jun 1932
+11.36% +35.88%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
12.20%
137 out of 1123
-18.38%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
+7.71% +34.53%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
16.92%
190 out of 1123
-14.67%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
+10.99% +25.05%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1980
10.80%
120 out of 1111
-17.12%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+7.45% +23.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1938
14.04%
156 out of 1111
-9.15%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935
+10.89% +22.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
9.65%
106 out of 1099
-14.16%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+7.29% +20.87%
Jun 1932 - May 1939
14.29%
157 out of 1099
-9.14%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
+10.70% +21.91%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1987
8.65%
94 out of 1087
-9.40%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1974
+7.43% +18.37%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
14.08%
153 out of 1087
-9.25%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
+10.86% +22.75%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983
6.14%
66 out of 1075
-9.31%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1974
+7.50% +17.80%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2000
13.30%
143 out of 1075
-6.99%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
+10.78% +21.33%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
4.52%
48 out of 1063
-7.27%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974
+7.74% +18.09%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
14.30%
152 out of 1063
-6.51%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
+10.82% +19.99%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000
4.66%
49 out of 1051
-5.32%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1974
+7.97% +16.38%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000
13.99%
147 out of 1051
-5.64%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941
+11.11% +19.74%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
3.46%
36 out of 1039
-4.74%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
+7.94% +16.13%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
14.82%
154 out of 1039
-6.14%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+10.91% +21.07%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
3.80%
39 out of 1027
-5.80%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+8.02% +15.66%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961
14.02%
144 out of 1027
-3.58%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942
+10.86% +18.24%
May 1942 - Apr 1956
3.35%
34 out of 1015
-3.42%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942
+7.91% +14.83%
Jun 1932 - May 1946
12.32%
125 out of 1015
-2.10%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
+10.59% +18.77%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
2.99%
30 out of 1003
-2.97%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+7.42% +14.81%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2000
12.06%
121 out of 1003
-0.46%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1944
+10.52% +18.50%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
0.61%
6 out of 991
-1.68%
Aug 1966 - Jul 1982
+7.23% +14.80%
Mar 1984 - Feb 2000
6.86%
68 out of 991
+0.29%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946
+10.38% +17.83%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1991
0.00%
0 out of 979
-1.29%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+7.21% +14.09%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
3.98%
39 out of 979
+0.14%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
+10.30% +18.92%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 967
-1.31%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
+7.27% +15.08%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
2.69%
26 out of 967
+0.40%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
+10.35% +17.60%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 955
-1.41%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
+7.24% +13.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
1.26%
12 out of 955
+0.54%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
+10.44% +18.75%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 943
-1.02%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
+7.42% +14.33%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
1.17%
11 out of 943
+3.76%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1954
+10.70% +17.86%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 883
+1.96%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1954
+7.44% +12.43%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 883
+6.08%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1959
+10.73% +14.88%
Oct 1974 - Sep 2004
0.00%
0 out of 823
+3.75%
Nov 1960 - Oct 1990
+7.14% +11.07%
Jun 1932 - May 1962
0.00%
0 out of 823
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