iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust (GSG): Rolling Returns

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Category:
Period: January 1871 - May 2025 (~154 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust (GSG) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~154 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 1214 months (from February 1871 to March 1972).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 1215 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY INDEXED TRUST (GSG) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2025 (~154 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.00%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY INDEXED TRUST (GSG) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2025 (~154 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY INDEXED TRUST (GSG) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2025 (~154 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-60.40%
May 2008 - Apr 2009
+1.32% +106.86%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973
44.57%
821 out of 1842
-60.17%
May 2008 - Apr 2009
-0.24% +95.63%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973
51.09%
941 out of 1842
-39.09%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2010
+0.32% +71.21%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974
46.78%
856 out of 1830
-39.05%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2010
-0.41% +57.38%
May 2020 - Apr 2022
52.79%
966 out of 1830
-26.74%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016
+0.94% +58.15%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974
44.99%
818 out of 1818
-27.36%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016
-0.65% +46.93%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974
54.57%
992 out of 1818
-22.11%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016
+0.58% +46.71%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974
42.41%
766 out of 1806
-26.55%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1921
-0.92% +37.38%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974
57.36%
1036 out of 1806
-18.22%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016
+0.44% +38.19%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974
42.87%
769 out of 1794
-23.16%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1921
-0.88% +29.70%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974
56.86%
1020 out of 1794
-20.39%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
+0.60% +30.58%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
45.40%
809 out of 1782
-21.44%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
-0.75% +22.67%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
58.02%
1034 out of 1782
-17.02%
May 2013 - Apr 2020
+0.56% +25.06%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974
42.09%
745 out of 1770
-18.19%
May 2013 - Apr 2020
-0.57% +17.81%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974
56.33%
997 out of 1770
-17.86%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016
+0.42% +22.92%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1979
44.71%
786 out of 1758
-18.88%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016
-0.53% +15.94%
Oct 1982 - Sep 1990
53.64%
943 out of 1758
-16.99%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017
+0.38% +23.06%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1980
43.76%
764 out of 1746
-18.05%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017
-0.45% +17.89%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2008
54.07%
944 out of 1746
-13.33%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018
+0.41% +21.88%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1980
44.64%
774 out of 1734
-14.57%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018
-0.41% +14.81%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
52.48%
910 out of 1734
-13.27%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019
+0.32% +20.78%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980
41.93%
722 out of 1722
-14.52%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019
-0.11% +12.10%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980
50.64%
872 out of 1722
-15.35%
May 2008 - Apr 2020
+0.36% +18.73%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980
44.15%
755 out of 1710
-16.61%
May 2008 - Apr 2020
+0.21% +10.38%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980
49.06%
839 out of 1710
-11.53%
May 2007 - Apr 2020
+0.49% +17.57%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1990
42.11%
715 out of 1698
-13.00%
May 2007 - Apr 2020
+0.44% +11.70%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008
47.35%
804 out of 1698
-10.74%
May 2006 - Apr 2020
+0.46% +16.47%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990
43.00%
725 out of 1686
-12.28%
May 2006 - Apr 2020
+0.42% +10.13%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008
47.86%
807 out of 1686
-9.28%
May 2005 - Apr 2020
+0.47% +14.75%
Jun 1969 - May 1984
43.37%
726 out of 1674
-10.95%
May 2005 - Apr 2020
+0.24% +9.28%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
48.15%
806 out of 1674
-8.02%
May 2004 - Apr 2020
+0.42% +14.54%
Aug 1971 - Jul 1987
41.34%
687 out of 1662
-9.80%
May 2004 - Apr 2020
+0.30% +8.06%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008
48.86%
812 out of 1662
-6.63%
Jun 2008 - May 2025
+0.45% +14.83%
May 1972 - Apr 1989
41.64%
687 out of 1650
-8.79%
Jun 2008 - May 2025
+0.01% +8.61%
Mar 1987 - Feb 2004
49.76%
821 out of 1650
-4.23%
May 2002 - Apr 2020
+0.37% +16.61%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990
39.74%
651 out of 1638
-6.28%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2024
-0.04% +9.42%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990
50.31%
824 out of 1638
-4.92%
May 2001 - Apr 2020
+0.42% +17.85%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990
40.10%
652 out of 1626
-6.77%
May 2001 - Apr 2020
-0.05% +10.77%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990
50.55%
822 out of 1626
-3.66%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+0.38% +17.34%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990
40.95%
661 out of 1614
-6.00%
Feb 1901 - Jan 1921
-0.07% +10.40%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990
50.43%
814 out of 1614
-2.71%
Feb 1907 - Jan 1932
+0.42% +13.96%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1996
35.71%
555 out of 1554
-5.19%
Feb 1896 - Jan 1921
-0.54% +8.93%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2008
57.08%
887 out of 1554
-1.80%
Feb 1902 - Jan 1932
+0.50% +12.81%
Dec 1970 - Nov 2000
37.62%
562 out of 1494
-4.20%
Feb 1891 - Jan 1921
-0.39% +7.53%
Jul 1978 - Jun 2008
55.89%
835 out of 1494
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