When holding the iShares S&P 500 Health Care (QDVG.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 148 months (from May 1999 to August 2011).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 149 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares S&P 500 Health Care (QDVG.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.95%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-27.23%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+11.72% |
+75.56%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
24.26%
115 out of 474 |
-28.92%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+9.18% |
+72.99%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
29.54%
140 out of 474 |
-17.25%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+12.10% |
+47.42%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
16.88%
78 out of 462 |
-18.82%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+9.60% |
+44.71%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
21.00%
97 out of 462 |
-11.24%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+12.35% |
+42.73%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
17.56%
79 out of 450 |
-13.06%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+9.99% |
+40.33%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
20.67%
93 out of 450 |
-10.08%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+13.38% |
+39.95%
May 1995 - Apr 1999 |
17.35%
76 out of 438 |
-12.05%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+10.80% |
+37.82%
May 1995 - Apr 1999 |
22.60%
99 out of 438 |
-6.78%
Jun 2001 - May 2006 |
+13.88% |
+36.22%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
17.84%
76 out of 426 |
-8.75%
Jun 2001 - May 2006 |
+11.13% |
+34.07%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
21.36%
91 out of 426 |
-7.43%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+14.50% |
+32.21%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
13.77%
57 out of 414 |
-9.53%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+11.71% |
+29.91%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
19.81%
82 out of 414 |
-7.16%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+14.03% |
+29.30%
May 1993 - Apr 2000 |
10.95%
44 out of 402 |
-9.05%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+11.82% |
+26.86%
May 1993 - Apr 2000 |
16.67%
67 out of 402 |
-6.75%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+14.54% |
+28.95%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
10.00%
39 out of 390 |
-8.61%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+11.92% |
+26.31%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
14.36%
56 out of 390 |
-5.35%
May 2000 - Apr 2009 |
+14.00% |
+27.84%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
11.11%
42 out of 378 |
-7.36%
May 2000 - Apr 2009 |
+11.77% |
+24.79%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
12.70%
48 out of 378 |
-3.06%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010 |
+13.64% |
+27.64%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
9.84%
36 out of 366 |
-5.00%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010 |
+11.31% |
+24.66%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
13.39%
49 out of 366 |
-2.10%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+13.73% |
+26.45%
May 1988 - Apr 1999 |
5.65%
20 out of 354 |
-4.09%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+11.58% |
+23.19%
May 1988 - Apr 1999 |
12.99%
46 out of 354 |
+0.02%
May 2000 - Apr 2012 |
+12.69% |
+26.90%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 342 |
-2.15%
May 2000 - Apr 2012 |
+10.63% |
+23.72%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
9.06%
31 out of 342 |
+1.26%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012 |
+12.02% |
+24.91%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 330 |
-0.88%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012 |
+9.98% |
+21.81%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
2.73%
9 out of 330 |
+3.12%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+11.48% |
+22.56%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 318 |
+1.07%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+9.65% |
+19.57%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 318 |
+4.27%
May 1999 - Apr 2014 |
+10.79% |
+20.89%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 306 |
+2.22%
May 1999 - Apr 2014 |
+9.02% |
+18.29%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 306 |
+5.13%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016 |
+10.26% |
+19.01%
Jun 1985 - May 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 294 |
+3.35%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016 |
+8.43% |
+16.47%
Jun 1985 - May 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 294 |
+5.63%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+9.58% |
+17.99%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 282 |
+3.86%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+7.59% |
+15.51%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 282 |
+5.54%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+10.20% |
+16.64%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 270 |
+3.75%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+8.17% |
+13.86%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 270 |
+6.14%
May 2000 - Apr 2019 |
+10.47% |
+15.55%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 258 |
+4.32%
May 2000 - Apr 2019 |
+8.20% |
+12.83%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 258 |
+6.22%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+10.39% |
+14.77%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 246 |
+4.52%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+8.13% |
+12.03%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 246 |
+6.84%
May 2000 - Apr 2025 |
+11.39% |
+14.03%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 186 |
+4.60%
May 2000 - Apr 2025 |
+9.42% |
+11.75%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 186 |
+10.83%
Jun 1995 - May 2025 |
+12.45% |
+14.07%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 126 |
+8.61%
Jun 1995 - May 2025 |
+10.24% |
+11.76%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 126 |
iShares S&P 500 Health Care (QDVG.DE) ETF: Historical Returns