iShares S&P 500 EUR Hedged (IBCF.DE): Rolling Returns

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Period: January 1950 - March 2025 (~75 years)
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the iShares S&P 500 EUR Hedged (IBCF.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 147 months (from July 1999 to September 2011).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 148 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES S&P 500 EUR HEDGED (IBCF.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 March 2025 (~75 years)

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As of Mar 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 9.50%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES S&P 500 EUR HEDGED (IBCF.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 March 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES S&P 500 EUR HEDGED (IBCF.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 March 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-42.42%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+13.22% +56.20%
Jan 1954 - Dec 1954
21.64%
193 out of 892
-45.63%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974
+10.03% +54.10%
Jan 1954 - Dec 1954
25.90%
231 out of 892
-25.72%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+11.28% +46.72%
Oct 1953 - Sep 1955
13.64%
120 out of 880
-28.57%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1974
+8.48% +44.10%
Oct 1953 - Sep 1955
21.02%
185 out of 880
-16.26%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+11.10% +35.69%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1956
10.94%
95 out of 868
-18.19%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+8.48% +33.20%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1956
18.20%
158 out of 868
-10.51%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+10.70% +29.46%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1998
10.75%
92 out of 856
-12.40%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+8.17% +27.97%
Jul 1951 - Jun 1955
18.34%
157 out of 856
-7.25%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+10.89% +30.76%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1955
9.24%
78 out of 844
-10.09%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+7.93% +29.03%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1955
20.50%
173 out of 844
-5.58%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+10.43% +29.50%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1956
4.33%
36 out of 832
-10.23%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+7.87% +27.20%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1956
16.47%
137 out of 832
-4.06%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+10.16% +26.03%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1956
1.95%
16 out of 820
-8.08%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+7.41% +23.54%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1956
14.15%
116 out of 820
-4.64%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+10.08% +22.30%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1998
1.98%
16 out of 808
-6.64%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+7.47% +20.75%
Jan 1951 - Dec 1958
16.09%
130 out of 808
-5.43%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+9.99% +23.59%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1958
2.64%
21 out of 796
-7.41%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+7.49% +21.65%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1959
16.33%
130 out of 796
-3.95%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+9.82% +22.43%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959
3.32%
26 out of 784
-5.93%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+7.35% +20.19%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959
15.43%
121 out of 784
-2.16%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+10.18% +21.22%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1961
1.68%
13 out of 772
-4.06%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+7.36% +19.25%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1961
17.10%
132 out of 772
+0.37%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
+9.96% +21.16%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1961
0.00%
0 out of 760
-1.75%
May 1968 - Apr 1980
+7.58% +18.97%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1961
15.39%
117 out of 760
+1.53%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012
+9.79% +18.87%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1963
0.00%
0 out of 748
-2.40%
Jun 1969 - May 1982
+7.04% +16.77%
Sep 1950 - Aug 1963
9.49%
71 out of 748
+2.40%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1982
+9.36% +18.99%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1964
0.00%
0 out of 736
-2.37%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1982
+6.94% +16.92%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1964
6.11%
45 out of 736
+2.55%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+9.07% +18.88%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1965
0.00%
0 out of 724
-1.99%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+6.70% +16.54%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1965
3.31%
24 out of 724
+3.31%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982
+8.95% +18.55%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
0.00%
0 out of 712
-1.01%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982
+6.52% +15.93%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1965
2.53%
18 out of 712
+3.32%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+8.45% +18.59%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 700
-1.02%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+5.95% +16.03%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
2.00%
14 out of 700
+3.45%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
+8.27% +17.88%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 688
-0.86%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
+5.75% +15.26%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
1.02%
7 out of 688
+4.23%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+8.44% +16.50%
May 1980 - Apr 1999
0.00%
0 out of 676
+0.19%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982
+5.93% +14.05%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1968
0.00%
0 out of 676
+4.08%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+8.54% +16.43%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 664
+0.63%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
+6.06% +13.48%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 664
+6.11%
Aug 1957 - Jul 1982
+9.25% +15.07%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 604
+2.28%
Aug 1959 - Jul 1984
+6.78% +11.76%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 604
+7.75%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1985
+9.72% +12.60%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 544
+4.17%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1991
+6.99% +8.94%
Aug 1984 - Jul 2014
0.00%
0 out of 544
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