iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond (SUB): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1978 - June 2025 (~48 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond (SUB) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~48 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 45 months (from January 2020 to September 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 46 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES SHORT-TERM NATIONAL MUNI BOND (SUB) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1978 - 30 June 2025 (~48 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1978/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.30%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES SHORT-TERM NATIONAL MUNI BOND (SUB) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1978 - 30 June 2025 (~48 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1978/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES SHORT-TERM NATIONAL MUNI BOND (SUB) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1978 - 30 June 2025 (~48 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-3.95%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+3.65% +10.88%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982
5.19%
29 out of 559
-11.22%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+0.52% +9.01%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009
39.53%
221 out of 559
-1.80%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022
+3.64% +9.22%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1982
3.66%
20 out of 547
-8.05%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+0.65% +4.97%
Jun 1984 - May 1986
39.85%
218 out of 547
-0.77%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+3.77% +8.11%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1983
2.06%
11 out of 535
-6.63%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1980
+0.91% +4.04%
Mar 1984 - Feb 1987
40.37%
216 out of 535
+0.13%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+3.77% +7.66%
Jun 1981 - May 1985
0.00%
0 out of 523
-5.15%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1981
+1.01% +3.95%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
40.73%
213 out of 523
+0.46%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2018
+3.56% +7.54%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
0.00%
0 out of 511
-3.52%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+0.95% +4.01%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
38.75%
198 out of 511
+0.47%
May 2012 - Apr 2018
+3.29% +7.47%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1986
0.00%
0 out of 499
-2.99%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2023
+0.68% +3.34%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
33.27%
166 out of 499
+0.56%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2022
+3.19% +7.22%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
0.00%
0 out of 487
-2.76%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+0.60% +3.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
27.72%
135 out of 487
+0.59%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022
+3.22% +6.89%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1988
0.00%
0 out of 475
-2.50%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023
+0.50% +2.90%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
23.58%
112 out of 475
+0.59%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
+3.28% +6.81%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1989
0.00%
0 out of 463
-2.17%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2023
+0.62% +2.61%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1990
21.38%
99 out of 463
+0.57%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022
+3.29% +6.79%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1990
0.00%
0 out of 451
-2.05%
Oct 2013 - Sep 2023
+0.65% +2.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
23.50%
106 out of 451
+0.63%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+3.32% +6.83%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 439
-1.94%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+0.67% +2.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
25.06%
110 out of 439
+0.70%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2023
+3.36% +6.70%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 427
-1.83%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2023
+0.72% +2.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
22.48%
96 out of 427
+0.78%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2022
+3.38% +6.56%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1993
0.00%
0 out of 415
-1.83%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023
+0.75% +2.33%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1994
23.37%
97 out of 415
+0.81%
Jul 2009 - Jun 2023
+3.38% +6.42%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1993
0.00%
0 out of 403
-1.69%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+0.74% +2.33%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
22.08%
89 out of 403
+0.92%
Jul 2009 - Jun 2024
+3.41% +6.24%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 391
-1.62%
Jun 2009 - May 2024
+0.77% +2.22%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
23.53%
92 out of 391
+1.11%
Jul 2009 - Jun 2025
+3.47% +6.05%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1995
0.00%
0 out of 379
-1.43%
May 2009 - Apr 2025
+0.80% +2.21%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
23.75%
90 out of 379
+1.43%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2025
+3.43% +5.95%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 367
-1.02%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+0.85% +2.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
24.80%
91 out of 367
+1.54%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2022
+3.44% +5.82%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 355
-0.94%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2022
+0.80% +2.14%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
23.10%
82 out of 355
+1.52%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2022
+3.38% +5.74%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1998
0.00%
0 out of 343
-1.01%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2023
+0.81% +2.05%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
17.78%
61 out of 343
+1.51%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+3.47% +5.66%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 331
-1.03%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+0.82% +2.11%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
15.71%
52 out of 331
+1.93%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+3.56% +5.24%
Jan 1978 - Dec 2002
0.00%
0 out of 271
-0.61%
Jun 1999 - May 2024
+0.83% +1.59%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2006
15.50%
42 out of 271
+2.26%
Oct 1993 - Sep 2023
+3.42% +4.90%
Jul 1979 - Jun 2009
0.00%
0 out of 211
-0.27%
Oct 1993 - Sep 2023
+0.68% +1.50%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
18.01%
38 out of 211
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