iShares Nasdaq 100 EUR Hedged (NQSE.DE): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1971 to September 2024 (~54 years)
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When holding the iShares Nasdaq 100 EUR Hedged (NQSE.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~54 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 175 months (from March 2000 to September 2014).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 176 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES NASDAQ 100 EUR HEDGED (NQSE.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1971 - 30 September 2024 (~54 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 15.91%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES NASDAQ 100 EUR HEDGED (NQSE.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1971 - 30 September 2024 (~54 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES NASDAQ 100 EUR HEDGED (NQSE.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1971 - 30 September 2024 (~54 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-67.51%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2001
+15.50% +119.13%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
21.77%
138 out of 634
-68.20%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2001
+12.35% +114.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
24.45%
155 out of 634
-51.83%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2002
+13.16% +90.05%
Jan 1998 - Dec 1999
19.77%
123 out of 622
-52.89%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2002
+10.19% +87.72%
Jan 1998 - Dec 1999
23.95%
149 out of 622
-38.66%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+12.97% +74.31%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2000
15.90%
97 out of 610
-40.08%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+10.24% +72.01%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2000
20.16%
123 out of 610
-24.19%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2004
+13.27% +61.82%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2000
14.38%
86 out of 598
-25.82%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2004
+10.50% +59.60%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2000
19.06%
114 out of 598
-19.40%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2005
+12.52% +56.55%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2000
14.33%
84 out of 586
-21.13%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2005
+9.34% +54.05%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2000
17.06%
100 out of 586
-14.75%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+12.45% +49.03%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
9.58%
55 out of 574
-16.60%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+9.07% +46.43%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
13.41%
77 out of 574
-12.55%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2007
+12.01% +42.92%
Mar 1993 - Feb 2000
9.07%
51 out of 562
-14.39%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2007
+9.02% +40.17%
Mar 1993 - Feb 2000
13.52%
76 out of 562
-11.06%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2008
+11.95% +39.39%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2000
6.36%
35 out of 550
-13.09%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2008
+8.95% +36.48%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2000
12.73%
70 out of 550
-14.00%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+11.88% +39.60%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
5.02%
27 out of 538
-15.79%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+9.58% +36.27%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
12.08%
65 out of 538
-8.25%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2010
+11.91% +36.73%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
5.70%
30 out of 526
-10.04%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2010
+9.55% +33.41%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
10.46%
55 out of 526
-5.47%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2011
+11.90% +34.20%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000
5.25%
27 out of 514
-7.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2011
+9.60% +30.83%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000
13.62%
70 out of 514
-3.81%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2012
+12.28% +31.37%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2000
2.99%
15 out of 502
-5.78%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2012
+9.93% +28.07%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2000
8.76%
44 out of 502
-3.10%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2013
+12.39% +28.68%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999
2.24%
11 out of 490
-5.08%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2013
+9.97% +25.60%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1999
9.18%
45 out of 490
-1.05%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+12.20% +27.74%
Mar 1986 - Feb 2000
0.63%
3 out of 478
-3.01%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+9.90% +24.97%
Mar 1986 - Feb 2000
4.81%
23 out of 478
+0.31%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2015
+12.33% +27.73%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 466
-1.55%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2015
+9.70% +25.09%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2000
1.93%
9 out of 466
+0.26%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
+12.39% +26.31%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 454
-1.41%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
+9.71% +23.66%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
1.54%
7 out of 454
+1.65%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2017
+12.53% +23.81%
Mar 1983 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 442
-0.09%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2017
+9.61% +21.18%
Mar 1983 - Feb 2000
0.45%
2 out of 442
+2.60%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+12.48% +25.01%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 430
+0.32%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1990
+9.58% +22.21%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 430
+2.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2019
+12.04% +22.18%
Mar 1981 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 418
+1.07%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990
+9.51% +19.30%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 418
+3.13%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+12.25% +23.38%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 406
+1.45%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+9.70% +20.25%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 406
+8.41%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2024
+12.44% +20.52%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 346
+5.84%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1996
+9.97% +17.05%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 346
+8.23%
Oct 1972 - Sep 2002
+12.40% +15.31%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020
0.00%
0 out of 286
+4.91%
Oct 1972 - Sep 2002
+9.75% +13.19%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020
0.00%
0 out of 286
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