iShares Nasdaq 100 (SXRV.DE): Rolling Returns

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Period: January 1971 - January 2025 (~54 years)
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the iShares Nasdaq 100 (SXRV.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~54 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 216 months (from April 2000 to March 2018).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 217 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES NASDAQ 100 (SXRV.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1971 - 31 January 2025 (~54 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 19.55%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES NASDAQ 100 (SXRV.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1971 - 31 January 2025 (~54 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES NASDAQ 100 (SXRV.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1971 - 31 January 2025 (~54 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-68.34%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2001
+15.64% +157.13%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
28.21%
180 out of 638
-69.02%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2001
+11.96% +152.26%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2000
30.41%
194 out of 638
-54.27%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002
+13.00% +114.44%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
18.85%
118 out of 626
-55.26%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2002
+9.96% +111.11%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
23.48%
147 out of 626
-41.34%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+13.82% +89.44%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2000
18.40%
113 out of 614
-42.69%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+10.54% +86.94%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2000
21.82%
134 out of 614
-29.70%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004
+15.15% +75.89%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2000
19.10%
115 out of 602
-31.22%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004
+11.89% +73.48%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2000
22.76%
137 out of 602
-24.29%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2005
+16.35% +69.14%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
17.46%
103 out of 590
-25.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2005
+12.41% +66.47%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
22.88%
135 out of 590
-19.64%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+14.64% +55.38%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2000
13.49%
78 out of 578
-21.38%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+11.32% +52.71%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2000
19.55%
113 out of 578
-16.23%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2007
+14.64% +48.07%
Apr 1993 - Mar 2000
12.37%
70 out of 566
-18.00%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2007
+11.68% +45.25%
Apr 1993 - Mar 2000
16.43%
93 out of 566
-16.04%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2008
+13.44% +47.45%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
9.39%
52 out of 554
-17.95%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2008
+11.23% +44.43%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
13.72%
76 out of 554
-16.33%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+13.94% +43.05%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
7.56%
41 out of 542
-18.07%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+11.13% +39.64%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
11.07%
60 out of 542
-11.18%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2010
+13.50% +41.21%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
7.74%
41 out of 530
-12.92%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2010
+10.84% +37.79%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000
10.75%
57 out of 530
-11.54%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+13.35% +35.30%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2000
8.69%
45 out of 518
-13.33%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+10.87% +31.92%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2000
11.00%
57 out of 518
-8.08%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2012
+13.33% +34.02%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2000
6.13%
31 out of 506
-9.97%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2012
+10.55% +30.65%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2000
9.09%
46 out of 506
-6.94%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2013
+13.08% +30.23%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
5.26%
26 out of 494
-8.84%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2013
+10.54% +27.01%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
8.10%
40 out of 494
-5.18%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+13.30% +27.97%
Sep 1986 - Aug 2000
4.36%
21 out of 482
-7.06%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+10.52% +25.08%
Mar 1986 - Feb 2000
5.81%
28 out of 482
-2.29%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+13.26% +25.72%
Sep 1985 - Aug 2000
2.34%
11 out of 470
-4.03%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+10.66% +23.03%
Sep 1985 - Aug 2000
5.11%
24 out of 470
-1.96%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+12.95% +25.99%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
2.40%
11 out of 458
-3.66%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+10.26% +23.35%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000
2.62%
12 out of 458
-0.38%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+12.57% +24.51%
Mar 1983 - Feb 2000
0.67%
3 out of 446
-2.05%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+10.06% +21.87%
Mar 1983 - Feb 2000
2.47%
11 out of 446
-0.05%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+12.05% +26.37%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.23%
1 out of 434
-1.74%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+9.43% +23.54%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
1.61%
7 out of 434
+1.03%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2019
+11.39% +24.99%
Mar 1981 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 422
-0.62%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2019
+9.04% +21.99%
Mar 1981 - Feb 2000
0.95%
4 out of 422
+1.60%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+11.37% +27.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 410
-0.05%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+8.90% +23.92%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.24%
1 out of 410
+6.60%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2024
+12.17% +23.88%
Mar 1975 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 350
+4.39%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2024
+9.81% +20.37%
Mar 1975 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 350
+9.02%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2013
+12.56% +15.51%
Jan 1971 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 290
+6.73%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2013
+9.92% +12.91%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020
0.00%
0 out of 290
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