iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ): Rolling Returns

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Period: January 1985 - January 2025 (~40 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 374 months (from February 1989 to March 2020).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 375 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF (EWJ) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 January 2025 (~40 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.82%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF (EWJ) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 January 2025 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF (EWJ) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 January 2025 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-40.40%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+5.85% +76.80%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1986
39.36%
185 out of 470
-40.41%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+3.00% +73.89%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1986
43.62%
205 out of 470
-29.00%
Feb 2000 - Jan 2002
+3.35% +50.06%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1987
40.61%
186 out of 458
-30.70%
Feb 2000 - Jan 2002
+1.31% +46.17%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
46.51%
213 out of 458
-24.82%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+3.18% +42.38%
May 1985 - Apr 1988
33.18%
148 out of 446
-26.62%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+0.58% +38.13%
May 1985 - Apr 1988
47.53%
212 out of 446
-14.70%
Sep 1994 - Aug 1998
+3.18% +36.81%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1989
37.79%
164 out of 434
-17.67%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1993
-0.08% +32.20%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1989
50.23%
218 out of 434
-11.19%
Sep 1993 - Aug 1998
+1.49% +26.96%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1990
41.71%
176 out of 422
-13.31%
Sep 1993 - Aug 1998
-1.12% +22.29%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1990
54.03%
228 out of 422
-9.25%
Jun 1997 - May 2003
+1.84% +20.30%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1991
33.90%
139 out of 410
-11.26%
Jun 1997 - May 2003
-1.09% +15.63%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1991
57.32%
235 out of 410
-9.30%
May 1996 - Apr 2003
+2.54% +15.58%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1992
33.67%
134 out of 398
-11.35%
May 1996 - Apr 2003
-0.20% +11.23%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1992
51.01%
203 out of 398
-8.17%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2002
+1.96% +12.88%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1993
37.05%
143 out of 386
-10.35%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2002
-0.62% +8.80%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1993
52.59%
203 out of 386
-7.99%
May 1994 - Apr 2003
+2.03% +13.29%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1994
33.16%
124 out of 374
-10.70%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1998
-0.59% +9.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1994
55.61%
208 out of 374
-6.04%
May 1993 - Apr 2003
+2.02% +11.15%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1994
32.04%
116 out of 362
-8.50%
Sep 1988 - Aug 1998
-0.52% +7.30%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1994
55.25%
200 out of 362
-5.66%
Nov 1991 - Oct 2002
+1.72% +9.27%
May 1985 - Apr 1996
32.57%
114 out of 350
-8.01%
Nov 1991 - Oct 2002
-0.56% +5.58%
May 1985 - Apr 1996
58.57%
205 out of 350
-5.96%
May 1991 - Apr 2003
+1.55% +8.92%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
27.51%
93 out of 338
-8.32%
May 1991 - Apr 2003
-0.69% +6.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
57.99%
196 out of 338
-5.73%
Feb 1989 - Jan 2002
+1.60% +7.71%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
27.91%
91 out of 326
-8.46%
Feb 1989 - Jan 2002
-0.75% +5.32%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
57.67%
188 out of 326
-5.89%
May 1989 - Apr 2003
+1.54% +7.05%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1999
33.12%
104 out of 314
-8.53%
May 1989 - Apr 2003
-0.78% +4.24%
May 2003 - Apr 2017
56.05%
176 out of 314
-4.99%
May 1988 - Apr 2003
+1.28% +8.46%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
32.78%
99 out of 302
-7.78%
May 1988 - Apr 2003
-1.03% +5.12%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
61.26%
185 out of 302
-3.19%
May 1987 - Apr 2003
+1.18% +6.24%
Feb 2009 - Jan 2025
33.10%
96 out of 290
-6.09%
May 1987 - Apr 2003
-1.33% +4.03%
May 2003 - Apr 2019
67.93%
197 out of 290
-2.30%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
+0.98% +5.88%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2020
29.50%
82 out of 278
-4.73%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
-1.46% +3.72%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2020
68.35%
190 out of 278
-3.03%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+1.36% +6.90%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
24.06%
64 out of 266
-5.45%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
-1.08% +4.75%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
68.05%
181 out of 266
-2.93%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+1.26% +6.18%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2021
22.83%
58 out of 254
-5.49%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
-1.14% +3.84%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2021
62.99%
160 out of 254
-3.39%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+1.48% +5.59%
May 2003 - Apr 2023
23.97%
58 out of 242
-6.06%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
-0.83% +3.00%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2022
63.22%
153 out of 242
-0.74%
Feb 1989 - Jan 2014
+1.44% +4.21%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2023
17.58%
32 out of 182
-3.34%
Feb 1989 - Jan 2014
-0.83% +1.62%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2023
70.88%
129 out of 182
+0.11%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+1.73% +3.96%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 122
-2.33%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
-0.75% +1.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
86.07%
105 out of 122
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