iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1970 - May 2025 (~55 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~55 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 170 months (from February 1989 to March 2003).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 171 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES MSCI EAFE (EFA) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 May 2025 (~55 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.95%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES MSCI EAFE (EFA) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 May 2025 (~55 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES MSCI EAFE (EFA) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 May 2025 (~55 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-50.02%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+9.89% +90.05%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986
31.65%
207 out of 654
-50.03%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+5.47% +87.10%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986
39.14%
256 out of 654
-29.65%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+8.17% +74.88%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
22.90%
147 out of 642
-31.07%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+4.16% +70.40%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
36.60%
235 out of 642
-19.65%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+6.65% +60.37%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
18.73%
118 out of 630
-21.58%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+3.49% +55.74%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
34.92%
220 out of 630
-9.86%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2011
+6.23% +45.20%
Jun 1984 - May 1988
16.34%
101 out of 618
-11.71%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2011
+2.81% +40.67%
Jun 1984 - May 1988
31.72%
196 out of 618
-7.41%
Jun 2007 - May 2012
+6.72% +42.40%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
11.22%
68 out of 606
-9.26%
Jun 2007 - May 2012
+2.54% +38.06%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
31.52%
191 out of 606
-2.74%
Oct 1996 - Sep 2002
+6.50% +36.46%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
6.90%
41 out of 594
-4.99%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2003
+2.54% +32.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
25.08%
149 out of 594
-2.53%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2003
+6.47% +33.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
2.23%
13 out of 582
-4.84%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2003
+3.02% +28.78%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
18.73%
109 out of 582
-1.99%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+6.83% +27.82%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
3.68%
21 out of 570
-4.28%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+3.16% +23.24%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
17.72%
101 out of 570
-3.86%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+6.76% +24.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
4.48%
25 out of 558
-6.22%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+3.42% +18.42%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
15.95%
89 out of 558
-0.59%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+6.31% +24.60%
May 1977 - Apr 1987
0.55%
3 out of 546
-3.76%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982
+3.12% +16.99%
May 1977 - Apr 1987
13.37%
73 out of 546
-0.18%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+6.40% +23.33%
Apr 1977 - Mar 1988
0.19%
1 out of 534
-2.63%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+3.01% +16.04%
Apr 1977 - Mar 1988
11.61%
62 out of 534
+0.42%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
+6.89% +22.31%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1989
0.00%
0 out of 522
-2.04%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
+3.14% +15.18%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1989
12.26%
64 out of 522
-0.27%
Oct 1989 - Sep 2002
+6.80% +22.96%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.59%
3 out of 510
-3.07%
Oct 1989 - Sep 2002
+3.66% +15.46%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
9.61%
49 out of 510
+0.02%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2003
+6.62% +21.20%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
0.00%
0 out of 498
-2.87%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003
+3.56% +14.11%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
6.83%
34 out of 498
+0.51%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+6.62% +21.16%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 486
-2.49%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2003
+3.73% +14.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
7.61%
37 out of 486
+1.48%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+6.55% +17.76%
Aug 1974 - Jul 1990
0.00%
0 out of 474
-1.43%
Apr 1987 - Mar 2003
+4.19% +11.71%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
4.22%
20 out of 474
+2.12%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
+5.98% +18.22%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
0.00%
0 out of 462
-0.12%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
+3.62% +11.74%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999
0.43%
2 out of 462
+1.77%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+6.09% +17.62%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988
0.00%
0 out of 450
-0.78%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+3.41% +11.53%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
0.44%
2 out of 450
+1.36%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+6.42% +17.24%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
0.00%
0 out of 438
-1.31%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+3.51% +10.28%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
1.37%
6 out of 438
+1.23%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+6.65% +16.26%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
0.00%
0 out of 426
-1.56%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+3.87% +9.76%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1994
1.88%
8 out of 426
+3.38%
Jun 1987 - May 2012
+8.01% +14.38%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 366
+0.50%
Jun 1987 - May 2012
+4.67% +9.36%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2007
0.00%
0 out of 366
+3.73%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+8.68% +12.94%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 306
+1.20%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+4.88% +7.53%
Jun 1977 - May 2007
0.00%
0 out of 306
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