When holding the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~29 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 151 months (from October 2007 to April 2020).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 152 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF (EWA) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 2006 - 31 May 2026 (20 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1997 - 31 May 2026 (~29 years)
All Data
(1997/01 - 2026/05)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF (EWA) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1997 - 31 May 2026 (~29 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-54.85%
Dec 2007 - Nov 2008
+8.07% +103.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
31.58%
108 out of 342
-56.46%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2008
+5.30% +99.22%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
38.30%
131 out of 342
-28.54%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.80% +57.62%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
24.55%
81 out of 330
-29.98%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+3.39% +54.32%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
35.15%
116 out of 330
-12.83%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+5.91% +36.59%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2005
18.87%
60 out of 318
-14.68%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+3.38% +32.34%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2005
33.33%
106 out of 318
-6.41%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2011
+5.65% +34.13%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2007
10.13%
31 out of 306
-8.70%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+2.79% +30.17%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2007
27.45%
84 out of 306
-3.18%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016
+6.34% +35.75%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
7.14%
21 out of 294
-4.85%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2002
+3.41% +31.91%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
19.05%
56 out of 294
-3.72%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020
+6.98% +30.96%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2007
2.13%
6 out of 282
-5.15%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020
+4.09% +27.56%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2007
12.06%
34 out of 282
-3.13%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
+6.89% +25.22%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2007
0.74%
2 out of 270
-4.58%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
+4.18% +21.96%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2007
4.44%
12 out of 270
-2.53%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2015
+7.73% +20.43%
Nov 1999 - Oct 2007
3.49%
9 out of 258
-4.07%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2015
+4.56% +17.18%
Nov 1999 - Oct 2007
8.14%
21 out of 258
-1.14%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020
+7.61% +19.85%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2007
1.22%
3 out of 246
-2.73%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020
+4.67% +16.64%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2007
8.54%
21 out of 246
+0.35%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2020
+6.90% +17.21%
Nov 1997 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 234
-1.37%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2020
+4.43% +14.22%
Nov 1997 - Oct 2007
2.56%
6 out of 234
+0.12%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2018
+6.08% +15.40%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2013
0.00%
0 out of 222
-1.58%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2018
+4.00% +12.75%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2013
1.80%
4 out of 222
+0.53%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020
+6.69% +15.16%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2013
0.00%
0 out of 210
-1.05%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020
+4.64% +12.59%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2013
1.90%
4 out of 210
+0.50%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020
+8.00% +13.88%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2014
0.00%
0 out of 198
-1.17%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020
+5.81% +11.34%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2014
2.53%
5 out of 198
+2.74%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2021
+8.63% +12.46%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2012
0.00%
0 out of 186
+0.72%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2021
+6.14% +9.89%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 186
+1.36%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+8.38% +12.02%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2013
0.00%
0 out of 174
-1.00%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+6.03% +9.39%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2013
1.15%
2 out of 174
+1.51%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+8.29% +12.53%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2014
0.00%
0 out of 162
-0.90%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.95% +9.93%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2014
1.23%
2 out of 162
+2.86%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2024
+8.54% +11.11%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2018
0.00%
0 out of 150
+0.41%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2024
+6.17% +8.86%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2018
0.00%
0 out of 150
+3.20%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2025
+8.28% +10.85%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2019
0.00%
0 out of 138
+0.71%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2025
+5.88% +8.63%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2019
0.00%
0 out of 138
+4.80%
Jun 2007 - May 2026
+8.22% +10.56%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2021
0.00%
0 out of 126
+2.18%
Jun 2007 - May 2026
+5.86% +8.14%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2021
0.00%
0 out of 126
+6.10%
May 2006 - Apr 2026
+8.22% +10.63%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2021
0.00%
0 out of 114
+3.46%
May 2006 - Apr 2026
+5.90% +8.28%
Oct 2001 - Sep 2021
0.00%
0 out of 114
+6.61%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022
+7.99% +9.51%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2026
0.00%
0 out of 54
+4.05%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022
+5.31% +6.79%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2026
0.00%
0 out of 54
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