When holding the iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~41 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 133 months (from October 2012 to October 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 134 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jan 31, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.36%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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| Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
|---|---|---|---|
|
-28.97%
Sep 1997 - Aug 1998 |
+8.71% |
+48.68%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 |
20.12%
97 out of 482 |
|
-32.93%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+6.59% |
+48.86%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 |
24.07%
116 out of 482 |
|
-12.54%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022 |
+7.50% |
+36.18%
Mar 1995 - Feb 1997 |
11.91%
56 out of 470 |
|
-18.40%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+5.37% |
+33.44%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1997 |
17.23%
81 out of 470 |
|
-8.49%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022 |
+7.27% |
+30.51%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
9.39%
43 out of 458 |
|
-12.60%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022 |
+5.56% |
+28.32%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
12.66%
58 out of 458 |
|
-5.08%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+8.43% |
+23.91%
Jun 1999 - May 2003 |
10.09%
45 out of 446 |
|
-8.95%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+6.14% |
+21.27%
Jun 1999 - May 2003 |
13.68%
61 out of 446 |
|
-4.58%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+8.73% |
+24.38%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2003 |
8.99%
39 out of 434 |
|
-7.75%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+6.47% |
+22.03%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2003 |
11.98%
52 out of 434 |
|
-3.33%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+8.98% |
+22.81%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2004 |
7.35%
31 out of 422 |
|
-6.05%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+6.85% |
+20.40%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2004 |
11.37%
48 out of 422 |
|
-1.92%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+9.80% |
+21.79%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
6.34%
26 out of 410 |
|
-4.85%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+7.34% |
+19.22%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2005 |
11.71%
48 out of 410 |
|
-1.28%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+10.59% |
+19.64%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2006 |
2.76%
11 out of 398 |
|
-3.58%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+8.00% |
+17.22%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2006 |
11.56%
46 out of 398 |
|
-0.51%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+10.93% |
+19.97%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2004 |
1.55%
6 out of 386 |
|
-2.88%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+8.61% |
+17.77%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2004 |
12.18%
47 out of 386 |
|
-0.76%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
+11.74% |
+18.62%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2005 |
0.80%
3 out of 374 |
|
-2.72%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
+9.23% |
+16.41%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2005 |
12.03%
45 out of 374 |
|
-0.17%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+11.84% |
+18.06%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2006 |
0.28%
1 out of 362 |
|
-2.22%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+9.36% |
+15.84%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2006 |
12.15%
44 out of 362 |
|
+0.87%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022 |
+11.69% |
+17.75%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 350 |
|
-1.24%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022 |
+9.39% |
+15.10%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2003 |
10.00%
35 out of 350 |
|
+1.25%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+11.48% |
+17.84%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 338 |
|
-0.93%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+9.30% |
+15.10%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2003 |
6.51%
22 out of 338 |
|
+2.25%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2024 |
+11.53% |
+17.48%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 326 |
|
+0.06%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2024 |
+9.19% |
+14.77%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 326 |
|
+2.66%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+11.69% |
+17.30%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 314 |
|
+0.56%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2025 |
+9.46% |
+14.58%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 314 |
|
+2.86%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+11.76% |
+16.49%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 302 |
|
+0.75%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+9.58% |
+13.83%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 302 |
|
+3.09%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+11.40% |
+15.94%
May 1990 - Apr 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 290 |
|
+0.95%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+9.51% |
+13.25%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 290 |
|
+3.35%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+11.95% |
+15.22%
May 1990 - Apr 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 278 |
|
+1.22%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+9.90% |
+12.47%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 278 |
|
+3.76%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+11.87% |
+15.01%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 266 |
|
+1.61%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+9.84% |
+12.48%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 266 |
|
+4.08%
Jun 2005 - May 2025 |
+11.69% |
+14.98%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 254 |
|
+1.94%
Jun 2005 - May 2025 |
+9.64% |
+12.47%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 254 |
|
+6.35%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022 |
+11.19% |
+13.29%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 194 |
|
+4.29%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022 |
+9.25% |
+10.68%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 194 |
|
+7.89%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2026 |
+10.92% |
+11.72%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 134 |
|
+5.74%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+8.77% |
+9.56%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 134 |
iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
