When holding the iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~16 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 191 months (from January 2010 to November 2025). This negative serie is not closed yet.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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| Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
|---|---|---|---|
|
-28.43%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+0.73% |
+14.61%
Jun 2010 - May 2011 |
46.11%
83 out of 180 |
|
-33.85%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
-1.48% |
+11.42%
Aug 2015 - Jul 2016 |
58.89%
106 out of 180 |
|
-16.62%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022 |
+0.53% |
+7.43%
Nov 2023 - Oct 2025 |
45.24%
76 out of 168 |
|
-21.91%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022 |
-1.53% |
+5.35%
Jan 2019 - Dec 2020 |
64.29%
108 out of 168 |
|
-11.33%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+0.39% |
+5.42%
Oct 2022 - Sep 2025 |
44.23%
69 out of 156 |
|
-16.13%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
-1.19% |
+2.50%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2018 |
69.87%
109 out of 156 |
|
-8.59%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024 |
-0.59% |
+5.70%
Jan 2017 - Dec 2020 |
54.17%
78 out of 144 |
|
-12.89%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024 |
-2.04% |
+3.69%
Jan 2017 - Dec 2020 |
78.47%
113 out of 144 |
|
-5.57%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
-0.36% |
+4.71%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2020 |
55.30%
73 out of 132 |
|
-9.01%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2024 |
-1.76% |
+2.70%
Jan 2016 - Dec 2020 |
90.15%
119 out of 132 |
|
-4.85%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
-0.27% |
+3.12%
Aug 2015 - Jul 2021 |
55.83%
67 out of 120 |
|
-8.06%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
-1.74% |
+0.98%
Jun 2015 - May 2021 |
86.67%
104 out of 120 |
|
-3.95%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+0.18% |
+1.93%
Jan 2014 - Dec 2020 |
45.37%
49 out of 108 |
|
-7.22%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
-1.59% |
+0.34%
Jan 2014 - Dec 2020 |
96.30%
104 out of 108 |
|
-3.45%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
-0.19% |
+1.88%
Jun 2010 - May 2018 |
50.00%
48 out of 96 |
|
-6.14%
May 2016 - Apr 2024 |
-2.01% |
+0.11%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2018 |
96.88%
93 out of 96 |
|
-3.11%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022 |
-0.84% |
+1.96%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2019 |
54.76%
46 out of 84 |
|
-5.70%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
-3.79% |
+0.32%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2020 |
95.24%
80 out of 84 |
|
-2.85%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
-0.84% |
+1.93%
Dec 2010 - Nov 2020 |
62.50%
45 out of 72 |
|
-5.47%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
-3.52% |
+0.19%
Dec 2010 - Nov 2020 |
94.44%
68 out of 72 |
|
-2.62%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
-1.48% |
+2.14%
Jun 2010 - May 2021 |
75.00%
45 out of 60 |
|
-5.10%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
-3.95% |
+0.20%
Jun 2010 - May 2021 |
95.00%
57 out of 60 |
|
-2.23%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
-1.31% |
+0.90%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2021 |
89.58%
43 out of 48 |
|
-4.69%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
-3.83% |
-1.23%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2021 |
100.00%
48 out of 48 |
|
-2.01%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
-1.13% |
-0.49%
Jul 2012 - Jun 2025 |
100.00%
36 out of 36 |
|
-4.53%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
-3.63% |
-3.06%
Jun 2010 - May 2023 |
100.00%
36 out of 36 |
|
-1.27%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2025 |
-0.87% |
-0.56%
Jun 2010 - May 2024 |
100.00%
24 out of 24 |
|
-3.82%
Feb 2011 - Jan 2025 |
-3.41% |
-3.07%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2025 |
100.00%
24 out of 24 |
|
-1.03%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2024 |
-0.64% |
+0.15%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025 |
91.67%
11 out of 12 |
|
-3.50%
Jan 2010 - Dec 2024 |
-3.23% |
-2.44%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025 |
100.00%
12 out of 12 |
iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV) ETF: Historical Returns

