iShares Gold Trust (IAU): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1972 - June 2025 (~54 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~54 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 329 months (from February 1980 to June 2007).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 330 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES GOLD TRUST (IAU) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1972 - 30 June 2025 (~54 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1972/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.64%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES GOLD TRUST (IAU) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1972 - 30 June 2025 (~54 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1972/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES GOLD TRUST (IAU) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1972 - 30 June 2025 (~54 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-37.71%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1982
+5.15% +179.42%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
39.94%
252 out of 631
-42.05%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1981
+1.83% +145.39%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
46.28%
292 out of 631
-30.30%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+5.13% +92.76%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
38.45%
238 out of 619
-35.72%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+1.61% +75.99%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1974
46.69%
289 out of 619
-15.32%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1983
+3.60% +70.26%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
35.26%
214 out of 607
-20.23%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1983
+0.12% +54.87%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
49.59%
301 out of 607
-15.26%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984
+5.01% +56.96%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
30.42%
181 out of 595
-19.83%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984
+0.96% +42.99%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
45.38%
270 out of 595
-14.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
+5.17% +36.39%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980
31.56%
184 out of 583
-19.61%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
+1.55% +25.16%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980
46.66%
272 out of 583
-10.02%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1986
+4.31% +30.45%
Feb 1974 - Jan 1980
33.80%
193 out of 571
-14.86%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1986
+1.22% +23.52%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2011
46.58%
266 out of 571
-6.75%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987
+3.98% +38.74%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
33.81%
189 out of 559
-11.37%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987
+0.88% +27.30%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
47.76%
267 out of 559
-6.28%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
+3.60% +38.89%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
32.91%
180 out of 547
-10.34%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
+0.96% +28.24%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
44.97%
246 out of 547
-6.43%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989
+3.45% +33.58%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1980
28.41%
152 out of 535
-10.47%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989
+0.95% +23.00%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1980
46.54%
249 out of 535
-5.99%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990
+3.76% +24.75%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1981
25.43%
133 out of 523
-10.17%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990
+1.13% +17.65%
Sep 2001 - Aug 2011
45.51%
238 out of 523
-5.57%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991
+4.63% +23.93%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1983
24.07%
123 out of 511
-9.72%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1991
+1.01% +15.56%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2012
45.60%
233 out of 511
-5.25%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1992
+5.01% +19.85%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1983
22.85%
114 out of 499
-9.40%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1992
+1.31% +14.59%
Sep 1999 - Aug 2011
42.48%
212 out of 499
-5.10%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+5.31% +16.25%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1984
25.87%
126 out of 487
-9.42%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+1.57% +12.59%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2011
37.17%
181 out of 487
-4.06%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001
+5.59% +15.48%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1985
24.21%
115 out of 475
-8.06%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+2.08% +10.88%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2012
37.68%
179 out of 475
-3.63%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995
+5.96% +15.89%
May 1972 - Apr 1987
22.89%
106 out of 463
-7.76%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995
+2.34% +9.49%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2012
38.88%
180 out of 463
-3.47%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996
+6.11% +16.24%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1987
23.73%
107 out of 451
-7.20%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996
+2.45% +8.97%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1987
37.69%
170 out of 451
-4.24%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997
+6.37% +14.10%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1988
21.87%
96 out of 439
-7.76%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997
+2.48% +8.08%
Aug 2003 - Jul 2020
38.50%
169 out of 439
-4.54%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998
+6.32% +13.09%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1989
16.63%
71 out of 427
-8.06%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998
+2.16% +8.41%
Aug 2002 - Jul 2020
37.47%
160 out of 427
-4.72%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
+5.84% +12.17%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1990
14.46%
60 out of 415
-8.16%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
+2.06% +8.64%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2020
37.83%
157 out of 415
-4.36%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000
+5.59% +11.03%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1991
12.90%
52 out of 403
-7.77%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000
+2.16% +7.83%
Aug 2000 - Jul 2020
38.46%
155 out of 403
-1.75%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+4.72% +10.19%
Jun 2000 - May 2025
3.79%
13 out of 343
-5.22%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+2.02% +7.46%
Jun 2000 - May 2025
37.61%
129 out of 343
+1.60%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+4.48% +7.19%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
0.00%
0 out of 283
-1.81%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+1.17% +4.55%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
18.02%
51 out of 283
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