When holding the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~54 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 329 months (from February 1980 to June 2007).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 330 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.64%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-37.71%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1982 |
+5.15% |
+179.42%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 |
39.94%
252 out of 631 |
-42.05%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1981 |
+1.83% |
+145.39%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 |
46.28%
292 out of 631 |
-30.30%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 |
+5.13% |
+92.76%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980 |
38.45%
238 out of 619 |
-35.72%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 |
+1.61% |
+75.99%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1974 |
46.69%
289 out of 619 |
-15.32%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1983 |
+3.60% |
+70.26%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980 |
35.26%
214 out of 607 |
-20.23%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1983 |
+0.12% |
+54.87%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980 |
49.59%
301 out of 607 |
-15.26%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984 |
+5.01% |
+56.96%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980 |
30.42%
181 out of 595 |
-19.83%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984 |
+0.96% |
+42.99%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980 |
45.38%
270 out of 595 |
-14.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
+5.17% |
+36.39%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980 |
31.56%
184 out of 583 |
-19.61%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
+1.55% |
+25.16%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980 |
46.66%
272 out of 583 |
-10.02%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1986 |
+4.31% |
+30.45%
Feb 1974 - Jan 1980 |
33.80%
193 out of 571 |
-14.86%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1986 |
+1.22% |
+23.52%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2011 |
46.58%
266 out of 571 |
-6.75%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987 |
+3.98% |
+38.74%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980 |
33.81%
189 out of 559 |
-11.37%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987 |
+0.88% |
+27.30%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980 |
47.76%
267 out of 559 |
-6.28%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988 |
+3.60% |
+38.89%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980 |
32.91%
180 out of 547 |
-10.34%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988 |
+0.96% |
+28.24%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980 |
44.97%
246 out of 547 |
-6.43%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989 |
+3.45% |
+33.58%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1980 |
28.41%
152 out of 535 |
-10.47%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989 |
+0.95% |
+23.00%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1980 |
46.54%
249 out of 535 |
-5.99%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990 |
+3.76% |
+24.75%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1981 |
25.43%
133 out of 523 |
-10.17%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990 |
+1.13% |
+17.65%
Sep 2001 - Aug 2011 |
45.51%
238 out of 523 |
-5.57%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991 |
+4.63% |
+23.93%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1983 |
24.07%
123 out of 511 |
-9.72%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1991 |
+1.01% |
+15.56%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2012 |
45.60%
233 out of 511 |
-5.25%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1992 |
+5.01% |
+19.85%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1983 |
22.85%
114 out of 499 |
-9.40%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1992 |
+1.31% |
+14.59%
Sep 1999 - Aug 2011 |
42.48%
212 out of 499 |
-5.10%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993 |
+5.31% |
+16.25%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1984 |
25.87%
126 out of 487 |
-9.42%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993 |
+1.57% |
+12.59%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2011 |
37.17%
181 out of 487 |
-4.06%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001 |
+5.59% |
+15.48%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1985 |
24.21%
115 out of 475 |
-8.06%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994 |
+2.08% |
+10.88%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2012 |
37.68%
179 out of 475 |
-3.63%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995 |
+5.96% |
+15.89%
May 1972 - Apr 1987 |
22.89%
106 out of 463 |
-7.76%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995 |
+2.34% |
+9.49%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2012 |
38.88%
180 out of 463 |
-3.47%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996 |
+6.11% |
+16.24%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1987 |
23.73%
107 out of 451 |
-7.20%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996 |
+2.45% |
+8.97%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1987 |
37.69%
170 out of 451 |
-4.24%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997 |
+6.37% |
+14.10%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1988 |
21.87%
96 out of 439 |
-7.76%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997 |
+2.48% |
+8.08%
Aug 2003 - Jul 2020 |
38.50%
169 out of 439 |
-4.54%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998 |
+6.32% |
+13.09%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1989 |
16.63%
71 out of 427 |
-8.06%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998 |
+2.16% |
+8.41%
Aug 2002 - Jul 2020 |
37.47%
160 out of 427 |
-4.72%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
+5.84% |
+12.17%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1990 |
14.46%
60 out of 415 |
-8.16%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
+2.06% |
+8.64%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2020 |
37.83%
157 out of 415 |
-4.36%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000 |
+5.59% |
+11.03%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1991 |
12.90%
52 out of 403 |
-7.77%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000 |
+2.16% |
+7.83%
Aug 2000 - Jul 2020 |
38.46%
155 out of 403 |
-1.75%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005 |
+4.72% |
+10.19%
Jun 2000 - May 2025 |
3.79%
13 out of 343 |
-5.22%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005 |
+2.02% |
+7.46%
Jun 2000 - May 2025 |
37.61%
129 out of 343 |
+1.60%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010 |
+4.48% |
+7.19%
Jun 1995 - May 2025 |
0.00%
0 out of 283 |
-1.81%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010 |
+1.17% |
+4.55%
Jun 1995 - May 2025 |
18.02%
51 out of 283 |
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF: Historical Returns