When holding the iShares Euro Government Bond 15-30yr (IBCL.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~42 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 122 months (from December 2014 to January 2025). This negative serie is not closed yet.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Euro Government Bond 15-30yr (IBCL.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -1.20%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-34.75%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022 |
+6.24% |
+38.60%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2015 |
22.92%
113 out of 493 |
-40.25%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022 |
+4.14% |
+38.71%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2015 |
30.43%
150 out of 493 |
-22.10%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+6.11% |
+22.80%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2015 |
13.72%
66 out of 481 |
-27.24%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+3.96% |
+22.56%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2015 |
21.21%
102 out of 481 |
-16.48%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+6.45% |
+18.73%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2015 |
8.96%
42 out of 469 |
-21.06%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+4.10% |
+17.90%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2015 |
14.07%
66 out of 469 |
-11.68%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023 |
+6.23% |
+17.14%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2015 |
7.22%
33 out of 457 |
-15.29%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023 |
+4.14% |
+15.76%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2015 |
10.50%
48 out of 457 |
-7.35%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024 |
+6.39% |
+14.41%
Aug 2011 - Jul 2016 |
7.19%
32 out of 445 |
-10.76%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024 |
+4.19% |
+13.33%
Aug 2011 - Jul 2016 |
8.09%
36 out of 445 |
-4.44%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+6.42% |
+12.43%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2015 |
7.62%
33 out of 433 |
-7.53%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+4.11% |
+10.77%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2015 |
8.08%
35 out of 433 |
-4.96%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+6.29% |
+11.59%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2015 |
6.89%
29 out of 421 |
-7.80%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+4.06% |
+10.09%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2015 |
8.31%
35 out of 421 |
-3.16%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+6.62% |
+11.23%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
6.85%
28 out of 409 |
-5.89%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+4.48% |
+10.02%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
7.33%
30 out of 409 |
-1.92%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2024 |
+7.01% |
+10.13%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2020 |
4.53%
18 out of 397 |
-4.33%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2024 |
+4.73% |
+9.16%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2020 |
6.80%
27 out of 397 |
-1.20%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025 |
+6.87% |
+9.32%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1999 |
0.52%
2 out of 385 |
-3.69%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025 |
+4.78% |
+7.69%
Jan 2011 - Dec 2020 |
6.23%
24 out of 385 |
+1.28%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+6.75% |
+9.16%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 373 |
-0.80%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+4.70% |
+7.85%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2019 |
2.95%
11 out of 373 |
+2.03%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024 |
+6.81% |
+8.61%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 361 |
-0.14%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2025 |
+4.74% |
+7.43%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2020 |
0.83%
3 out of 361 |
+1.74%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023 |
+6.68% |
+8.33%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 349 |
-0.47%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023 |
+4.63% |
+6.90%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2020 |
0.86%
3 out of 349 |
+2.36%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024 |
+6.61% |
+8.05%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 337 |
+0.15%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024 |
+4.55% |
+6.09%
Aug 2002 - Jul 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 337 |
+3.03%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2023 |
+6.50% |
+8.12%
Jan 1984 - Dec 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 325 |
+0.90%
Feb 2010 - Jan 2025 |
+4.54% |
+5.94%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 325 |
+2.95%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+6.37% |
+7.81%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 313 |
+0.83%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+4.43% |
+5.85%
Aug 2000 - Jul 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 313 |
+2.64%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+6.42% |
+7.69%
Sep 1988 - Aug 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 301 |
+0.51%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+4.39% |
+5.50%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 301 |
+2.45%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+6.47% |
+7.56%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 289 |
+0.34%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+4.39% |
+5.57%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 289 |
+2.81%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+6.56% |
+7.69%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 277 |
+0.68%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+4.31% |
+5.81%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 277 |
+2.96%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+6.44% |
+8.12%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 265 |
+0.82%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+4.22% |
+6.20%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 265 |
+3.32%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023 |
+6.40% |
+7.97%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 205 |
+1.19%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023 |
+4.25% |
+5.73%
Aug 1991 - Jul 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 205 |
+4.16%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+6.75% |
+7.40%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 145 |
+2.04%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+4.64% |
+5.34%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 145 |
iShares Euro Government Bond 15-30yr (IBCL.DE) ETF: Historical Returns