iShares Euro Government Bond 15-30yr (IBCL.DE): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: February 1983 - June 2025 (~42 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the iShares Euro Government Bond 15-30yr (IBCL.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~42 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 128 months (from November 2014 to June 2025). This negative serie is not closed yet.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 15-30YR (IBCL.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 February 1983 - 30 June 2025 (~42 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1983/02 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -0.36%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 15-30YR (IBCL.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 February 1983 - 30 June 2025 (~42 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1983/02 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 15-30YR (IBCL.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1983 - 30 June 2025 (~42 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-34.75%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+6.14% +38.60%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2015
22.89%
114 out of 498
-40.25%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+3.95% +38.71%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2015
30.52%
152 out of 498
-22.10%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+6.04% +22.80%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2015
13.79%
67 out of 486
-27.24%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+3.89% +22.56%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2015
21.81%
106 out of 486
-16.48%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+6.41% +18.73%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2015
9.92%
47 out of 474
-21.06%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+4.03% +17.90%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2015
14.98%
71 out of 474
-11.68%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+6.20% +17.14%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2015
8.23%
38 out of 462
-15.29%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+4.12% +15.76%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2015
11.47%
53 out of 462
-7.35%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+6.26% +14.41%
Aug 2011 - Jul 2016
8.22%
37 out of 450
-10.76%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+4.16% +13.33%
Aug 2011 - Jul 2016
9.11%
41 out of 450
-4.97%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2025
+6.31% +12.43%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2015
8.68%
38 out of 438
-8.08%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2025
+4.09% +10.77%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2015
9.13%
40 out of 438
-4.96%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+6.24% +11.59%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2015
7.98%
34 out of 426
-7.80%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+4.04% +10.09%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2015
9.39%
40 out of 426
-3.16%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024
+6.60% +11.23%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016
7.97%
33 out of 414
-5.89%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024
+4.46% +10.02%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016
8.45%
35 out of 414
-2.63%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2025
+6.94% +10.13%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2020
5.72%
23 out of 402
-5.25%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2025
+4.63% +9.16%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2020
7.96%
32 out of 402
-2.22%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2025
+6.83% +9.32%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1999
1.79%
7 out of 390
-4.59%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2025
+4.73% +7.69%
Jan 2011 - Dec 2020
7.44%
29 out of 390
+0.64%
Jul 2014 - Jun 2025
+6.74% +9.16%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2019
0.00%
0 out of 378
-1.61%
Jul 2014 - Jun 2025
+4.63% +7.85%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2019
4.23%
16 out of 378
+1.46%
May 2013 - Apr 2025
+6.75% +8.61%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2020
0.00%
0 out of 366
-0.68%
May 2013 - Apr 2025
+4.72% +7.43%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2020
1.91%
7 out of 366
+1.74%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023
+6.61% +8.33%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 354
-0.47%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023
+4.57% +6.90%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2020
0.85%
3 out of 354
+2.36%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+6.51% +8.05%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 342
+0.15%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+4.54% +6.09%
Aug 2002 - Jul 2016
0.00%
0 out of 342
+2.62%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2025
+6.47% +8.12%
Jan 1984 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 330
+0.46%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2025
+4.53% +5.94%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2016
0.00%
0 out of 330
+2.95%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+6.36% +7.81%
Jul 1989 - Jun 2005
0.00%
0 out of 318
+0.83%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+4.41% +5.85%
Aug 2000 - Jul 2016
0.00%
0 out of 318
+2.64%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+6.41% +7.69%
Sep 1988 - Aug 2005
0.00%
0 out of 306
+0.51%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+4.38% +5.50%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2016
0.00%
0 out of 306
+2.45%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+6.46% +7.56%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005
0.00%
0 out of 294
+0.34%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+4.38% +5.57%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 294
+2.81%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.56% +7.69%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 282
+0.68%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+4.30% +5.81%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 282
+2.79%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2025
+6.41% +8.12%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 270
+0.68%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2025
+4.21% +6.20%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 270
+3.32%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+6.38% +7.97%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 210
+1.19%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+4.21% +5.73%
Aug 1991 - Jul 2016
0.00%
0 out of 210
+4.16%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+6.74% +7.40%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 150
+2.04%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+4.63% +5.34%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2020
0.00%
0 out of 150
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