iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr (EUN6.DE): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: July 1980 - June 2025 (~45 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr (EUN6.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~45 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 200 months (from November 2006 to June 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 201 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 0-1YR (EUN6.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 July 1980 - 30 June 2025 (~45 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1980/07 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.26%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 0-1YR (EUN6.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 July 1980 - 30 June 2025 (~45 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1980/07 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 0-1YR (EUN6.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1980 - 30 June 2025 (~45 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-4.12%
May 2008 - Apr 2009
+2.57% +14.42%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
21.93%
116 out of 529
-10.63%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+0.51% +10.21%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1986
44.05%
233 out of 529
-2.05%
May 2007 - Apr 2009
+2.86% +10.95%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1982
22.05%
114 out of 517
-7.73%
Dec 2020 - Nov 2022
+0.45% +6.60%
May 1995 - Apr 1997
43.13%
223 out of 517
-0.84%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022
+2.47% +8.52%
Mar 1989 - Feb 1992
23.96%
121 out of 505
-5.56%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+0.32% +6.25%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986
45.54%
230 out of 505
-0.76%
Nov 2018 - Oct 2022
+2.60% +8.41%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1991
19.68%
97 out of 493
-4.55%
Mar 2019 - Feb 2023
+0.43% +5.75%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1986
45.64%
225 out of 493
-0.75%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+2.70% +7.89%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1992
16.22%
78 out of 481
-4.03%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
+0.44% +5.18%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1990
44.07%
212 out of 481
-0.73%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+2.67% +7.69%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1993
15.78%
74 out of 469
-3.70%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022
+0.44% +4.83%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1989
45.20%
212 out of 469
-0.68%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2022
+2.65% +7.10%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1994
14.44%
66 out of 457
-3.49%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2023
+0.46% +4.76%
Aug 1983 - Jul 1990
45.73%
209 out of 457
-0.61%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022
+2.64% +6.81%
May 1988 - Apr 1996
13.26%
59 out of 445
-3.07%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+0.55% +4.52%
May 1983 - Apr 1991
46.74%
208 out of 445
-0.52%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
+2.72% +6.98%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1996
12.24%
53 out of 433
-2.74%
Sep 2014 - Aug 2023
+0.66% +4.56%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1992
47.34%
205 out of 433
-0.45%
Dec 2012 - Nov 2022
+2.65% +6.81%
May 1981 - Apr 1991
12.11%
51 out of 421
-2.48%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2023
+0.55% +4.26%
Jul 1983 - Jun 1993
47.74%
201 out of 421
-0.33%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2023
+2.54% +6.97%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1992
13.45%
55 out of 409
-2.35%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2023
+0.41% +4.31%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1993
48.17%
197 out of 409
-0.16%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2023
+2.22% +6.97%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1992
12.59%
50 out of 397
-2.24%
Sep 2011 - Aug 2023
+0.27% +4.04%
Jul 1981 - Jun 1993
46.35%
184 out of 397
-0.17%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2021
+2.28% +6.92%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1993
8.83%
34 out of 385
-2.20%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2023
+0.38% +3.98%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994
45.71%
176 out of 385
-0.23%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2022
+2.57% +6.66%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1994
6.17%
23 out of 373
-2.11%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+0.64% +3.98%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1996
45.84%
171 out of 373
-0.25%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+2.65% +6.55%
May 1981 - Apr 1996
6.65%
24 out of 361
-2.25%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+0.66% +3.88%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1997
44.04%
159 out of 361
-0.15%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2023
+2.65% +6.57%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1996
5.73%
20 out of 349
-2.19%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2023
+0.69% +3.81%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1998
42.69%
149 out of 349
+0.03%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2023
+2.60% +6.48%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1997
0.00%
0 out of 337
-2.03%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2023
+0.60% +3.69%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1998
42.14%
142 out of 337
+0.14%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2023
+2.62% +6.33%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 325
-1.91%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2023
+0.58% +3.63%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1999
39.38%
128 out of 325
+0.23%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2023
+2.62% +6.15%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 313
-1.82%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2023
+0.57% +3.47%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
37.06%
116 out of 313
+0.33%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023
+2.75% +5.98%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 301
-1.75%
Sep 2003 - Aug 2023
+0.63% +3.37%
Feb 1981 - Jan 2001
35.22%
106 out of 301
+0.87%
Jun 1999 - May 2024
+2.85% +5.31%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2005
0.00%
0 out of 241
-1.23%
Jun 1999 - May 2024
+0.75% +2.75%
Feb 1981 - Jan 2006
25.73%
62 out of 241
+1.48%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2024
+3.03% +4.52%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2010
0.00%
0 out of 181
-0.57%
May 1994 - Apr 2024
+0.94% +2.07%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2010
23.20%
42 out of 181
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