When holding the iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility (IBCK.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 140 months (from August 1997 to March 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 141 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility (IBCK.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 12.45%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-37.60%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+11.86% |
+73.77%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
24.68%
115 out of 466 |
-39.04%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+9.71% |
+71.22%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
29.18%
136 out of 466 |
-22.27%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002 |
+11.13% |
+42.49%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
15.20%
69 out of 454 |
-23.91%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002 |
+8.36% |
+39.87%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
19.16%
87 out of 454 |
-15.26%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2003 |
+10.98% |
+37.03%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
17.19%
76 out of 442 |
-17.04%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2003 |
+8.27% |
+34.72%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
18.55%
82 out of 442 |
-11.21%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+11.36% |
+32.88%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
14.65%
63 out of 430 |
-13.15%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+8.35% |
+30.92%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
20.00%
86 out of 430 |
-6.26%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2005 |
+10.88% |
+29.29%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
13.64%
57 out of 418 |
-8.28%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2005 |
+8.08% |
+27.25%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
20.10%
84 out of 418 |
-4.76%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+10.91% |
+27.16%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
9.85%
40 out of 406 |
-6.92%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+7.88% |
+24.96%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
17.98%
73 out of 406 |
-6.77%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+11.20% |
+22.52%
Jul 1992 - Jun 1999 |
8.38%
33 out of 394 |
-8.67%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+8.14% |
+20.11%
May 1993 - Apr 2000 |
12.69%
50 out of 394 |
-5.91%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+10.69% |
+24.70%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
7.85%
30 out of 382 |
-7.79%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+8.37% |
+22.15%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
10.47%
40 out of 382 |
-5.42%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+10.67% |
+21.17%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
8.92%
33 out of 370 |
-7.33%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+8.47% |
+18.28%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
11.35%
42 out of 370 |
-3.19%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+10.65% |
+23.01%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
8.38%
30 out of 358 |
-5.12%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+8.57% |
+20.14%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
13.41%
48 out of 358 |
-1.90%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+10.41% |
+19.01%
May 1988 - Apr 1999 |
4.34%
15 out of 346 |
-3.89%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+8.56% |
+15.95%
May 1988 - Apr 1999 |
13.58%
47 out of 346 |
+0.50%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+10.39% |
+19.39%
May 1988 - Apr 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 334 |
-1.63%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+8.38% |
+16.40%
May 1988 - Apr 2000 |
11.68%
39 out of 334 |
+1.32%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+10.12% |
+19.48%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 322 |
-0.73%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+8.10% |
+16.51%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.93%
3 out of 322 |
+2.59%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2014 |
+9.93% |
+17.02%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
+0.61%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+7.98% |
+14.16%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
+3.85%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
+9.68% |
+16.05%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+1.88%
May 1999 - Apr 2014 |
+7.72% |
+13.56%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+4.61%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2014 |
+9.61% |
+13.87%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+2.61%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2014 |
+7.11% |
+11.44%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+4.47%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+8.84% |
+12.83%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+2.72%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+6.55% |
+10.43%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+5.09%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+8.60% |
+12.66%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+3.30%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+6.45% |
+9.97%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+5.68%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019 |
+8.66% |
+12.00%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+3.92%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019 |
+6.45% |
+9.36%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+5.36%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+8.78% |
+11.18%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+3.70%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+6.55% |
+8.85%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+7.15%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010 |
+9.51% |
+11.43%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+4.98%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010 |
+7.46% |
+9.20%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+9.34%
Sep 1987 - Aug 2017 |
+10.15% |
+11.31%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
+7.15%
Sep 1987 - Aug 2017 |
+8.00% |
+9.05%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility (IBCK.DE) ETF: Historical Returns