iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA (USMV) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1985 - April 2025 (~40 years)
Currency: EUR
USMV is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA (USMV) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 140 months (from August 1997 to March 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 141 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES EDGE MSCI MIN VOL USA (USMV) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)

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As of Apr 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.41%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES EDGE MSCI MIN VOL USA (USMV) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES EDGE MSCI MIN VOL USA (USMV) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-37.60%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+12.07% +73.77%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
24.31%
115 out of 473
-39.04%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+9.92% +71.22%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
28.54%
135 out of 473
-22.27%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002
+11.19% +42.49%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
14.75%
68 out of 461
-23.91%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002
+8.43% +39.87%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
18.22%
84 out of 461
-15.26%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2003
+10.89% +37.03%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
16.93%
76 out of 449
-17.04%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2003
+8.32% +34.72%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
18.26%
82 out of 449
-11.21%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+11.59% +32.88%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
14.42%
63 out of 437
-13.15%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+8.57% +30.92%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
19.68%
86 out of 437
-6.26%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2005
+10.88% +29.29%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
13.41%
57 out of 425
-8.28%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2005
+8.21% +27.25%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
19.76%
84 out of 425
-4.76%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+11.01% +27.16%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
9.69%
40 out of 413
-6.92%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+7.89% +24.96%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
17.68%
73 out of 413
-6.77%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+11.29% +22.52%
Jul 1992 - Jun 1999
8.23%
33 out of 401
-8.67%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+8.29% +20.11%
May 1993 - Apr 2000
12.47%
50 out of 401
-5.91%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+10.96% +24.70%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
7.71%
30 out of 389
-7.79%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+8.38% +22.15%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
10.28%
40 out of 389
-5.42%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009
+10.89% +21.17%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
8.75%
33 out of 377
-7.33%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009
+8.50% +18.28%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
11.14%
42 out of 377
-3.19%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010
+10.70% +23.01%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
8.22%
30 out of 365
-5.12%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010
+8.70% +20.14%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
13.15%
48 out of 365
-1.90%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+10.70% +19.01%
May 1988 - Apr 1999
4.25%
15 out of 353
-3.89%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+8.72% +16.02%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
13.31%
47 out of 353
+0.50%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+10.55% +19.39%
May 1988 - Apr 2000
0.00%
0 out of 341
-1.63%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+8.60% +16.40%
May 1988 - Apr 2000
11.44%
39 out of 341
+1.32%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+10.30% +19.48%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000
0.00%
0 out of 329
-0.73%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+8.38% +16.51%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000
0.91%
3 out of 329
+2.58%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2014
+10.16% +17.02%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001
0.00%
0 out of 317
+0.61%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+8.14% +14.16%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001
0.00%
0 out of 317
+3.93%
May 1999 - Apr 2014
+9.90% +16.05%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 305
+1.88%
May 1999 - Apr 2014
+7.90% +13.56%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 305
+4.60%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016
+9.70% +15.86%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 293
+2.61%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2014
+7.24% +13.47%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 293
+4.77%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+9.14% +13.09%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 281
+3.02%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+6.67% +10.82%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 281
+5.35%
May 2000 - Apr 2018
+8.73% +12.66%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 269
+3.56%
May 2000 - Apr 2018
+6.53% +9.97%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 269
+6.15%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019
+8.83% +12.00%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 257
+4.20%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+6.59% +9.36%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 257
+5.53%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+8.86% +11.30%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2024
0.00%
0 out of 245
+3.87%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+6.62% +9.01%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2024
0.00%
0 out of 245
+7.05%
May 2000 - Apr 2025
+9.59% +11.47%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2015
0.00%
0 out of 185
+4.83%
May 2000 - Apr 2025
+7.38% +9.24%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2015
0.00%
0 out of 185
+9.40%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
+10.29% +11.41%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2017
0.00%
0 out of 125
+7.24%
Jul 1985 - Jun 2015
+8.19% +9.15%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2017
0.00%
0 out of 125
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