iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: August 1953 - January 2025 (~72 years)
Currency: EUR
IJR is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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The minimum date range must be at least 24 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond January 2025.
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~72 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 133 months (from March 1998 to March 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 134 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES CORE S&P SMALL-CAP (IJR) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 January 2025 (~72 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.55%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES CORE S&P SMALL-CAP (IJR) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 January 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES CORE S&P SMALL-CAP (IJR) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 January 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-40.19%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990
+14.12% +121.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
26.21%
222 out of 847
-44.24%
Jul 1972 - Jun 1973
+11.40% +114.97%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
30.46%
258 out of 847
-35.18%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+13.63% +55.49%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1976
18.44%
154 out of 835
-39.32%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+10.89% +48.72%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1976
22.75%
190 out of 835
-23.48%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1974
+13.26% +57.57%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983
17.01%
140 out of 823
-28.26%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1974
+10.36% +50.35%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983
21.75%
179 out of 823
-15.54%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
+12.94% +45.33%
Jul 1979 - Jun 1983
12.58%
102 out of 811
-20.58%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
+10.24% +38.35%
Jul 1979 - Jun 1983
18.37%
149 out of 811
-14.09%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+12.19% +43.09%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1983
9.01%
72 out of 799
-18.80%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+9.43% +36.28%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1983
16.15%
129 out of 799
-14.96%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974
+11.88% +38.72%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
5.84%
46 out of 787
-19.19%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974
+9.26% +32.87%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
12.96%
102 out of 787
-9.58%
Jan 1968 - Dec 1974
+11.57% +35.27%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
5.81%
45 out of 775
-13.71%
Jan 1968 - Dec 1974
+8.99% +29.85%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
12.39%
96 out of 775
-3.51%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+11.97% +33.00%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1982
6.82%
52 out of 763
-7.15%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974
+9.34% +27.33%
Jun 1975 - May 1983
12.32%
94 out of 763
-4.56%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+11.76% +35.39%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983
3.20%
24 out of 751
-7.34%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974
+9.02% +29.65%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983
11.19%
84 out of 751
-0.72%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1978
+11.53% +32.70%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984
0.41%
3 out of 739
-5.16%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1978
+8.94% +27.37%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984
9.74%
72 out of 739
-0.63%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009
+11.82% +30.11%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
0.28%
2 out of 727
-2.75%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974
+9.16% +25.18%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
6.46%
47 out of 727
+2.25%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974
+11.65% +26.29%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986
0.00%
0 out of 715
-1.57%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974
+9.29% +22.00%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986
1.12%
8 out of 715
+0.98%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
+11.40% +25.48%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 703
-2.72%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
+9.08% +21.33%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
1.28%
9 out of 703
+2.67%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
+11.60% +22.69%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
0.00%
0 out of 691
-1.02%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
+9.18% +18.83%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
0.58%
4 out of 691
+2.44%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+11.59% +22.95%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 679
-1.04%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+8.85% +19.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.44%
3 out of 679
+3.37%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+11.24% +18.91%
Apr 1975 - Mar 1991
0.00%
0 out of 667
-0.02%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+8.48% +15.21%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1969
0.15%
1 out of 667
+6.17%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
+11.05% +19.86%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 655
+2.45%
Nov 1961 - Oct 1978
+8.03% +16.00%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 655
+5.41%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974
+10.66% +20.46%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1992
0.00%
0 out of 643
+2.16%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974
+7.84% +16.59%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1992
0.00%
0 out of 643
+5.56%
Jan 1956 - Dec 1974
+10.47% +20.87%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 631
+2.38%
Jan 1956 - Dec 1974
+7.88% +16.99%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 631
+5.73%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+10.50% +19.12%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1994
0.00%
0 out of 619
+3.13%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974
+7.85% +15.68%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 619
+6.83%
Feb 1984 - Jan 2009
+11.92% +19.80%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 559
+4.60%
Feb 1984 - Jan 2009
+8.83% +16.35%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 559
+8.91%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2013
+12.19% +16.68%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 499
+6.62%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2013
+8.90% +13.46%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 499
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