When holding the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 152 months (from September 2011 to April 2024).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 153 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.20%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-12.39%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+4.10% |
+28.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982 |
21.11%
187 out of 886 |
-20.63%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+1.86% |
+25.89%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
34.65%
307 out of 886 |
-7.56%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+4.68% |
+21.58%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
12.81%
112 out of 874 |
-13.83%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+2.44% |
+20.50%
Sep 1984 - Aug 1986 |
30.66%
268 out of 874 |
-5.36%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+4.60% |
+18.53%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993 |
9.51%
82 out of 862 |
-10.55%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+2.29% |
+14.35%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993 |
23.90%
206 out of 862 |
-3.60%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1981 |
+4.98% |
+15.70%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1993 |
6.35%
54 out of 850 |
-7.96%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1981 |
+1.99% |
+13.39%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
20.71%
176 out of 850 |
-1.70%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981 |
+4.99% |
+16.07%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
5.25%
44 out of 838 |
-6.04%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981 |
+2.42% |
+13.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
22.32%
187 out of 838 |
-1.69%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+4.85% |
+12.92%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993 |
4.00%
33 out of 826 |
-4.70%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+2.57% |
+10.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987 |
22.15%
183 out of 826 |
-1.57%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+4.81% |
+12.34%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1995 |
3.81%
31 out of 814 |
-4.51%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+2.58% |
+9.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
20.76%
169 out of 814 |
-1.12%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 |
+4.85% |
+11.86%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
3.37%
27 out of 802 |
-3.90%
May 2016 - Apr 2024 |
+2.66% |
+9.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
18.08%
145 out of 802 |
-0.76%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+4.81% |
+12.70%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
3.29%
26 out of 790 |
-3.47%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1981 |
+2.51% |
+10.16%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
13.80%
109 out of 790 |
-0.56%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+4.79% |
+11.60%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993 |
2.83%
22 out of 778 |
-3.36%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 |
+2.59% |
+9.07%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993 |
14.01%
109 out of 778 |
-0.54%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+4.74% |
+12.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
2.74%
21 out of 766 |
-2.58%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+2.52% |
+9.55%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
15.54%
119 out of 766 |
-0.24%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+4.79% |
+12.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
1.19%
9 out of 754 |
-2.32%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+2.53% |
+9.72%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
15.52%
117 out of 754 |
+0.14%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+4.85% |
+11.48%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 742 |
-2.28%
Sep 1968 - Aug 1981 |
+2.66% |
+8.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
12.40%
92 out of 742 |
+0.69%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2024 |
+5.26% |
+11.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 730 |
-1.88%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+2.53% |
+8.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
10.55%
77 out of 730 |
+0.91%
May 2009 - Apr 2024 |
+5.31% |
+10.97%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 718 |
-1.57%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+2.45% |
+8.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
10.17%
73 out of 718 |
+1.42%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2024 |
+5.25% |
+10.77%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 706 |
-1.66%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+2.39% |
+8.06%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
10.06%
71 out of 706 |
+1.90%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.29% |
+10.93%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 694 |
-1.60%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+2.42% |
+8.31%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
8.07%
56 out of 694 |
+1.89%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+5.34% |
+9.96%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 682 |
-1.46%
Sep 1963 - Aug 1981 |
+2.38% |
+7.43%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
8.21%
56 out of 682 |
+1.76%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+5.55% |
+9.74%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 670 |
-1.34%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+2.45% |
+7.42%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
9.70%
65 out of 670 |
+1.91%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+5.60% |
+9.89%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 658 |
-1.13%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+2.57% |
+7.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
7.60%
50 out of 658 |
+2.72%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023 |
+6.12% |
+8.78%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 598 |
-0.21%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+3.06% |
+6.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
0.84%
5 out of 598 |
+3.40%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+6.37% |
+8.53%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 538 |
+0.35%
Sep 1951 - Aug 1981 |
+3.50% |
+6.13%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 538 |
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns