iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1950 - January 2025 (~75 years)
Currency: EUR
IEI is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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The minimum date range must be at least 24 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond January 2025.
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 152 months (from September 2011 to April 2024).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 153 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES 3-7 YEAR TREASURY BOND (IEI) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 January 2025 (~75 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -0.38%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 3-7 YEAR TREASURY BOND (IEI) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 January 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES 3-7 YEAR TREASURY BOND (IEI) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 January 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-12.39%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+4.07% +28.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982
21.01%
187 out of 890
-20.63%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+1.84% +25.89%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
34.72%
309 out of 890
-7.56%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+4.66% +21.58%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
12.76%
112 out of 878
-13.83%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+2.39% +20.50%
Sep 1984 - Aug 1986
30.98%
272 out of 878
-5.36%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+4.58% +18.53%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993
9.93%
86 out of 866
-10.55%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+2.29% +14.35%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993
24.25%
210 out of 866
-3.60%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1981
+4.96% +15.70%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1993
6.79%
58 out of 854
-7.96%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1981
+1.98% +13.39%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
21.08%
180 out of 854
-1.70%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981
+4.98% +16.07%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
5.70%
48 out of 842
-6.04%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981
+2.38% +13.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
22.68%
191 out of 842
-1.69%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+4.83% +12.92%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993
4.34%
36 out of 830
-4.70%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+2.56% +10.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
22.53%
187 out of 830
-1.57%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+4.77% +12.34%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1995
4.28%
35 out of 818
-4.51%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+2.58% +9.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
21.15%
173 out of 818
-1.12%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+4.85% +11.86%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
3.85%
31 out of 806
-3.90%
May 2016 - Apr 2024
+2.66% +9.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
18.49%
149 out of 806
-0.76%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+4.79% +12.70%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
3.78%
30 out of 794
-3.47%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1981
+2.49% +10.16%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
14.23%
113 out of 794
-0.56%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+4.79% +11.60%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993
3.32%
26 out of 782
-3.36%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
+2.58% +9.07%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993
14.45%
113 out of 782
-0.54%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+4.73% +12.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
2.86%
22 out of 770
-2.58%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+2.51% +9.55%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
15.97%
123 out of 770
-0.24%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+4.78% +12.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
1.72%
13 out of 758
-2.32%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+2.53% +9.72%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
15.96%
121 out of 758
+0.07%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2025
+4.84% +11.48%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994
0.00%
0 out of 746
-2.28%
Sep 1968 - Aug 1981
+2.65% +8.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
12.87%
96 out of 746
+0.54%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2024
+5.23% +11.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 734
-1.88%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+2.51% +8.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
11.04%
81 out of 734
+0.91%
May 2009 - Apr 2024
+5.30% +10.97%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 722
-1.57%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981
+2.41% +8.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
10.66%
77 out of 722
+0.98%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+5.22% +10.77%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 710
-1.66%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+2.37% +8.06%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
10.56%
75 out of 710
+1.58%
Feb 2008 - Jan 2025
+5.25% +10.93%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 698
-1.60%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+2.40% +8.31%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
8.60%
60 out of 698
+1.89%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+5.29% +9.96%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 686
-1.46%
Sep 1963 - Aug 1981
+2.37% +7.43%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
8.45%
58 out of 686
+1.76%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.52% +9.74%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
0.00%
0 out of 674
-1.34%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981
+2.43% +7.42%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
9.94%
67 out of 674
+1.91%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+5.59% +9.89%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 662
-1.13%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+2.56% +7.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
8.16%
54 out of 662
+2.72%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+6.06% +8.78%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 602
-0.21%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981
+3.00% +6.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.83%
5 out of 602
+3.40%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+6.35% +8.53%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 542
+0.35%
Sep 1951 - Aug 1981
+3.46% +6.13%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2011
0.00%
0 out of 542
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