iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1950 - June 2025 (~76 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Currency: EUR
IEI is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 152 months (from September 2011 to April 2024).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 153 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES 3-7 YEAR TREASURY BOND (IEI) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.06%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 3-7 YEAR TREASURY BOND (IEI) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES 3-7 YEAR TREASURY BOND (IEI) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-12.39%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+4.10% +28.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982
20.89%
187 out of 895
-20.63%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+1.86% +25.89%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
34.53%
309 out of 895
-7.56%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+4.66% +21.58%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
12.68%
112 out of 883
-13.83%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022
+2.37% +20.50%
Sep 1984 - Aug 1986
31.14%
275 out of 883
-5.36%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+4.55% +18.53%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993
10.10%
88 out of 871
-10.55%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+2.28% +14.35%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993
24.68%
215 out of 871
-3.60%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1981
+4.91% +15.70%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1993
7.33%
63 out of 859
-7.96%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1981
+1.96% +13.39%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
21.54%
185 out of 859
-1.83%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+4.98% +16.07%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
6.26%
53 out of 847
-6.04%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981
+2.34% +13.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
23.14%
196 out of 847
-1.69%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+4.82% +12.92%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993
4.79%
40 out of 835
-4.70%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+2.54% +10.42%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
22.99%
192 out of 835
-1.57%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+4.76% +12.34%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1995
4.25%
35 out of 823
-4.51%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+2.57% +9.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
21.63%
178 out of 823
-1.12%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+4.84% +11.86%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
4.44%
36 out of 811
-3.90%
May 2016 - Apr 2024
+2.63% +9.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
18.99%
154 out of 811
-0.76%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+4.79% +12.70%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
4.38%
35 out of 799
-3.47%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1981
+2.48% +10.16%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
14.77%
118 out of 799
-0.56%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+4.79% +11.60%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993
3.68%
29 out of 787
-3.36%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
+2.57% +9.07%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1993
14.99%
118 out of 787
-0.54%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+4.72% +12.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
2.84%
22 out of 775
-2.58%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+2.48% +9.55%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
16.52%
128 out of 775
-0.24%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+4.78% +12.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
1.70%
13 out of 763
-2.32%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+2.52% +9.72%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
16.51%
126 out of 763
+0.07%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2025
+4.83% +11.48%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1994
0.00%
0 out of 751
-2.28%
Sep 1968 - Aug 1981
+2.62% +8.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
13.45%
101 out of 751
+0.54%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2024
+5.18% +11.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 739
-1.88%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+2.50% +8.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
11.64%
86 out of 739
+0.91%
May 2009 - Apr 2024
+5.25% +10.97%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 727
-1.57%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981
+2.41% +8.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
11.28%
82 out of 727
+0.98%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+5.21% +10.77%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 715
-1.66%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+2.34% +8.06%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
11.19%
80 out of 715
+1.55%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2025
+5.23% +10.93%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 703
-1.60%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+2.39% +8.31%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
9.25%
65 out of 703
+1.89%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+5.27% +9.96%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 691
-1.46%
Sep 1963 - Aug 1981
+2.35% +7.43%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
8.39%
58 out of 691
+1.76%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.44% +9.74%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
0.00%
0 out of 679
-1.34%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981
+2.43% +7.42%
Jun 1984 - May 2003
9.87%
67 out of 679
+1.91%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+5.57% +9.89%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 667
-1.13%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+2.55% +7.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001
8.70%
58 out of 667
+2.72%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+5.96% +8.78%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 607
-0.21%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981
+2.96% +6.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.82%
5 out of 607
+3.38%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
+6.34% +8.53%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 547
+0.35%
Sep 1951 - Aug 1981
+3.45% +6.13%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2011
0.00%
0 out of 547
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