iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to April 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024

Holding the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 170 months (from December 1945 to January 1960).

This means that every rolling period of 171 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to April 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 0.10% (updated at Apr 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.22% +67.15%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
-33.64%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
20.89%
382 out of 1829
US Inflation Adjusted +2.77% +63.62%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
-38.41%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
38.87%
711 out of 1829
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.17% +49.11%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
-22.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
12.00%
218 out of 1817
US Inflation Adjusted +2.89% +45.17%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
-26.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
30.93%
562 out of 1817
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.27% +30.06%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986
-17.32%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
8.14%
147 out of 1805
US Inflation Adjusted +3.08% +26.19%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986
-21.79%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
29.70%
536 out of 1805
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.44% +30.03%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
-12.78%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
6.08%
109 out of 1793
US Inflation Adjusted +2.91% +26.18%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
-17.06%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
29.45%
528 out of 1793
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.42% +28.14%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
-4.43%
May 2019 - Apr 2024
4.21%
75 out of 1781
US Inflation Adjusted +2.83% +23.78%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
-12.22%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1920
32.23%
574 out of 1781
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.32% +22.00%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987
-4.35%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
3.62%
64 out of 1769
US Inflation Adjusted +2.90% +17.23%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987
-9.78%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920
31.71%
561 out of 1769
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.26% +20.15%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
-4.12%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
3.13%
55 out of 1757
US Inflation Adjusted +3.10% +15.94%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
-8.20%
Jun 1913 - May 1920
31.64%
556 out of 1757
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.35% +19.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
-2.52%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
2.29%
40 out of 1745
US Inflation Adjusted +3.12% +15.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
-7.90%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1981
32.72%
571 out of 1745
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.41% +17.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1990
-1.64%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
1.79%
31 out of 1733
US Inflation Adjusted +3.14% +13.00%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
-7.28%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981
33.29%
577 out of 1733
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.38% +17.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
-0.83%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959
0.87%
15 out of 1721
US Inflation Adjusted +3.06% +13.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
-6.48%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
35.15%
605 out of 1721
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.42% +17.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
-1.12%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
0.47%
8 out of 1709
US Inflation Adjusted +3.13% +12.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
-4.88%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1981
34.41%
588 out of 1709
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.33% +17.41%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
-0.28%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
0.29%
5 out of 1697
US Inflation Adjusted +3.13% +13.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
-4.68%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981
32.65%
554 out of 1697
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution