When holding the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~154 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 170 months (from December 1945 to January 1960).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 171 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -0.97%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-33.64%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+4.19% |
+67.15%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
21.06%
388 out of 1842 |
-38.41%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+2.76% |
+63.62%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
39.03%
719 out of 1842 |
-22.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+4.13% |
+49.11%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
12.51%
229 out of 1830 |
-26.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+2.86% |
+45.17%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
31.42%
575 out of 1830 |
-17.32%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+4.24% |
+30.06%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 |
8.80%
160 out of 1818 |
-21.80%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+2.99% |
+26.19%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 |
30.20%
549 out of 1818 |
-12.78%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+4.41% |
+30.03%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
6.76%
122 out of 1806 |
-17.05%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+2.80% |
+26.18%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
29.96%
541 out of 1806 |
-9.64%
Jun 2020 - May 2025 |
+4.41% |
+28.14%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
4.91%
88 out of 1794 |
-13.63%
Jun 2020 - May 2025 |
+2.78% |
+23.78%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
32.72%
587 out of 1794 |
-4.41%
Jun 2019 - May 2025 |
+4.29% |
+22.00%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
4.32%
77 out of 1782 |
-9.78%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 |
+2.80% |
+17.23%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
32.21%
574 out of 1782 |
-4.12%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+4.23% |
+20.15%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
3.84%
68 out of 1770 |
-8.20%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 |
+2.97% |
+15.94%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
32.15%
569 out of 1770 |
-2.76%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+4.34% |
+19.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
3.01%
53 out of 1758 |
-7.90%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1981 |
+3.05% |
+15.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
33.22%
584 out of 1758 |
-1.99%
Jun 2016 - May 2025 |
+4.39% |
+17.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1990 |
2.52%
44 out of 1746 |
-7.28%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981 |
+2.89% |
+13.00%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
33.79%
590 out of 1746 |
-2.03%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025 |
+4.35% |
+17.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 |
1.33%
23 out of 1734 |
-6.48%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 |
+2.94% |
+13.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 |
35.64%
618 out of 1734 |
-1.12%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+4.39% |
+17.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
0.46%
8 out of 1722 |
-4.88%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1981 |
+3.07% |
+12.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
34.90%
601 out of 1722 |
-0.38%
Jun 2012 - May 2024 |
+4.29% |
+17.41%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
0.58%
10 out of 1710 |
-4.68%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981 |
+3.09% |
+13.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
33.16%
567 out of 1710 |
-0.40%
Jun 2012 - May 2025 |
+4.28% |
+15.21%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993 |
0.18%
3 out of 1698 |
-5.32%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
+2.97% |
+11.02%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
32.27%
548 out of 1698 |
-0.01%
Feb 1946 - Jan 1960 |
+4.26% |
+15.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
0.06%
1 out of 1686 |
-5.07%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+2.79% |
+11.51%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
32.62%
550 out of 1686 |
+0.07%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1969 |
+4.24% |
+14.59%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 1674 |
-4.98%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+2.58% |
+10.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
32.62%
546 out of 1674 |
+0.20%
Jun 1954 - May 1970 |
+4.25% |
+14.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 1662 |
-4.98%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+2.48% |
+10.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
31.29%
520 out of 1662 |
+0.51%
Jan 1953 - Dec 1969 |
+4.26% |
+14.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 1650 |
-4.67%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+2.42% |
+11.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
30.12%
497 out of 1650 |
+0.50%
Jun 1952 - May 1970 |
+4.26% |
+13.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 1638 |
-4.32%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+2.47% |
+9.80%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
30.95%
507 out of 1638 |
+0.31%
Jan 1951 - Dec 1969 |
+4.24% |
+13.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 1626 |
-4.05%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+2.35% |
+9.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
30.81%
501 out of 1626 |
+0.24%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1969 |
+4.24% |
+13.28%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 1614 |
-3.73%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+2.48% |
+9.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
29.93%
483 out of 1614 |
+0.67%
Jun 1945 - May 1970 |
+4.22% |
+11.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 1554 |
-3.04%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+2.45% |
+8.48%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
26.25%
408 out of 1554 |
+1.28%
May 1940 - Apr 1970 |
+4.17% |
+11.72%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 1494 |
-2.64%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+2.43% |
+8.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
19.61%
293 out of 1494 |
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns