Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Holding the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 170 months (from December 1945 to January 1960).
This means that every rolling period of 171 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 0.10% (updated at Apr 30, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.22% |
+67.15%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
-33.64%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
20.89%
382 out of 1829 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.77% |
+63.62%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
-38.41%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
38.87%
711 out of 1829 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.17% |
+49.11%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
-22.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
12.00%
218 out of 1817 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.89% |
+45.17%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
-26.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
30.93%
562 out of 1817 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+30.06%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 |
-17.32%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
8.14%
147 out of 1805 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.08% |
+26.19%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 |
-21.79%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
29.70%
536 out of 1805 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.44% |
+30.03%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-12.78%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
6.08%
109 out of 1793 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.91% |
+26.18%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-16.99%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
29.45%
528 out of 1793 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.42% |
+28.14%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
-4.43%
May 2019 - Apr 2024 |
4.21%
75 out of 1781 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.83% |
+23.78%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
-12.22%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1920 |
32.23%
574 out of 1781 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.32% |
+22.00%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
-4.35%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
3.62%
64 out of 1769 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.90% |
+17.23%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
-9.78%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 |
31.71%
561 out of 1769 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.26% |
+20.15%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
-4.12%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
3.13%
55 out of 1757 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.10% |
+15.94%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
-8.20%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 |
31.64%
556 out of 1757 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.35% |
+19.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
-2.52%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 |
2.29%
40 out of 1745 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.12% |
+15.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
-7.90%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1981 |
32.72%
571 out of 1745 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.41% |
+17.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1990 |
-1.64%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
1.79%
31 out of 1733 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.14% |
+13.00%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
-7.28%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981 |
33.29%
577 out of 1733 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.38% |
+17.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 |
-0.83%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959 |
0.87%
15 out of 1721 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.06% |
+13.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 |
-6.48%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 |
35.15%
605 out of 1721 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.42% |
+17.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
-1.12%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.47%
8 out of 1709 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.13% |
+12.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 |
-4.88%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1981 |
34.41%
588 out of 1709 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.33% |
+17.41%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
-0.28%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.29%
5 out of 1697 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.13% |
+13.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
-4.68%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981 |
32.65%
554 out of 1697 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.32% |
+15.21%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993 |
-0.03%
Jan 1947 - Dec 1959 |
0.12%
2 out of 1685 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.05% |
+11.02%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
-5.32%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
31.75%
535 out of 1685 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.29% |
+15.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
-0.01%
Feb 1946 - Jan 1960 |
0.06%
1 out of 1673 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.89% |
+11.51%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
-5.07%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
32.22%
539 out of 1673 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+14.59%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
+0.07%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1969 |
0.00%
0 out of 1661 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.64% |
+10.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
-4.98%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
32.63%
542 out of 1661 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.26% |
+14.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
+0.20%
Jun 1954 - May 1970 |
0.00%
0 out of 1649 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.61% |
+10.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
-4.98%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
31.11%
513 out of 1649 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.28% |
+14.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
+0.51%
Jan 1953 - Dec 1969 |
0.00%
0 out of 1637 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.50% |
+11.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
-4.67%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
30.36%
497 out of 1637 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+13.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
+0.50%
Jun 1952 - May 1970 |
0.00%
0 out of 1625 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.51% |
+9.80%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
-4.32%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
31.20%
507 out of 1625 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.27% |
+13.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
+0.31%
Jan 1951 - Dec 1969 |
0.00%
0 out of 1613 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.45% |
+9.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
-4.05%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
31.06%
501 out of 1613 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +4.26% |
+13.28%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
+0.24%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1969 |
0.00%
0 out of 1601 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +2.51% |
+9.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
-3.73%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
30.17%
483 out of 1601 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.