When holding the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 289 months (from April 1996 to April 2020).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 290 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.90%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-47.91%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 |
+2.71% |
+106.49%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
40.56%
363 out of 895 |
-47.83%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 |
+0.92% |
+92.42%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
47.26%
423 out of 895 |
-30.46%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 |
+2.81% |
+69.35%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 |
34.77%
307 out of 883 |
-30.31%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 |
+0.56% |
+58.45%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 |
47.23%
417 out of 883 |
-23.65%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016 |
+2.34% |
+56.89%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 |
27.67%
241 out of 871 |
-23.78%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016 |
+0.54% |
+47.20%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 |
46.50%
405 out of 871 |
-18.92%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 |
+2.68% |
+46.36%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 |
23.05%
198 out of 859 |
-19.35%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 |
+0.67% |
+37.46%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 |
45.40%
390 out of 859 |
-15.55%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016 |
+3.52% |
+38.26%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 |
20.19%
171 out of 847 |
-16.36%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016 |
+1.12% |
+30.44%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 |
41.09%
348 out of 847 |
-14.44%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 |
+4.03% |
+30.05%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
20.12%
168 out of 835 |
-15.14%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 |
+1.28% |
+23.56%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
36.89%
308 out of 835 |
-12.54%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
+4.28% |
+24.24%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 |
17.01%
140 out of 823 |
-13.20%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
+1.52% |
+18.59%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 |
39.85%
328 out of 823 |
-12.11%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
+4.36% |
+21.09%
Jun 1970 - May 1978 |
16.65%
135 out of 811 |
-13.07%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
+1.38% |
+15.56%
Dec 1966 - Nov 1974 |
39.21%
318 out of 811 |
-11.66%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 |
+4.68% |
+20.70%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2008 |
17.27%
138 out of 799 |
-12.57%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 |
+1.61% |
+17.88%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2008 |
35.29%
282 out of 799 |
-8.78%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018 |
+5.71% |
+19.85%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1980 |
17.53%
138 out of 787 |
-9.86%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018 |
+2.93% |
+14.75%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 |
36.47%
287 out of 787 |
-9.09%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 |
+7.01% |
+19.05%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 |
17.94%
139 out of 775 |
-10.19%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 |
+4.27% |
+13.40%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 |
35.74%
277 out of 775 |
-10.22%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 |
+7.42% |
+16.90%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980 |
17.17%
131 out of 763 |
-11.23%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 |
+4.55% |
+11.62%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980 |
33.29%
254 out of 763 |
-6.36%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 |
+7.56% |
+15.01%
Nov 1967 - Oct 1980 |
15.58%
117 out of 751 |
-7.53%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 |
+4.35% |
+11.56%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 |
31.56%
237 out of 751 |
-5.90%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 |
+7.73% |
+13.65%
Nov 1966 - Oct 1980 |
12.58%
93 out of 739 |
-7.20%
May 2006 - Apr 2020 |
+4.70% |
+10.05%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
26.93%
199 out of 739 |
-4.90%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
+7.72% |
+12.84%
Nov 1965 - Oct 1980 |
9.63%
70 out of 727 |
-6.44%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2023 |
+4.84% |
+9.40%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 |
27.10%
197 out of 727 |
-3.98%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2020 |
+7.77% |
+11.80%
Nov 1964 - Oct 1980 |
8.67%
62 out of 715 |
-5.86%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2024 |
+4.71% |
+8.81%
Oct 1988 - Sep 2004 |
25.03%
179 out of 715 |
-3.91%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2025 |
+7.87% |
+12.09%
Oct 1988 - Sep 2005 |
8.11%
57 out of 703 |
-5.78%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2025 |
+4.60% |
+9.46%
Mar 1987 - Feb 2004 |
20.91%
147 out of 703 |
-0.92%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2024 |
+7.61% |
+13.42%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990 |
4.34%
30 out of 691 |
-2.96%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2024 |
+4.35% |
+10.00%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2004 |
20.41%
141 out of 691 |
-1.11%
May 2001 - Apr 2020 |
+7.41% |
+14.78%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 |
2.50%
17 out of 679 |
-2.97%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2024 |
+4.11% |
+10.57%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 |
15.91%
108 out of 679 |
-0.30%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+7.41% |
+14.54%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 |
1.80%
12 out of 667 |
-2.37%
May 2005 - Apr 2025 |
+3.97% |
+10.22%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 |
13.79%
92 out of 667 |
+1.01%
May 1995 - Apr 2020 |
+7.26% |
+12.30%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 607 |
-0.63%
May 1995 - Apr 2020 |
+4.06% |
+9.32%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2008 |
1.15%
7 out of 607 |
+1.18%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020 |
+7.56% |
+11.24%
Dec 1970 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 547 |
-0.68%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2020 |
+4.58% |
+7.64%
Jul 1978 - Jun 2008 |
0.55%
3 out of 547 |
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns