Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings

Category:

Period: January 1950 - January 2026 (~76 years)

Initial Amount: 1€

Currency: EUR

DBC is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.

Inflation: Eurozone

(Change Settings)

This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 289 months (from April 1996 to April 2020).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 290 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

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Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) TO EUR HEDGED ETF

Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized

Time Period: 1 February 1996 - 31 January 2026 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 January 2026 (~76 years)

30 Years
(1996/02 - 2026/01)

All Data
(1950/01 - 2026/01)

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As of Jan 31, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.91%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) TO EUR HEDGED ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 February 1996 - 31 January 2026 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 January 2026 (~76 years)

30 Years
(1996/02 - 2026/01)

All Data
(1950/01 - 2026/01)

Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) TO EUR HEDGED ETF

Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 January 2026 (~76 years)

Rolling Period:

Over Time

Histogram

Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data

Worst	Median	Best	Negative Periods
-47.91% Jul 2008 - Jun 2009	+2.81%	+106.49% Aug 1972 - Jul 1973	40.24% 363 out of 902
-47.83% Jul 2008 - Jun 2009	+1.02%	+92.42% Aug 1972 - Jul 1973	46.90% 423 out of 902
-30.46% Mar 2014 - Feb 2016	+2.77%	+69.35% Nov 1972 - Oct 1974	34.94% 311 out of 890
-30.31% Mar 2014 - Feb 2016	+0.54%	+58.45% Nov 1972 - Oct 1974	47.42% 422 out of 890
-23.65% Feb 2013 - Jan 2016	+2.25%	+56.89% Nov 1971 - Oct 1974	28.13% 247 out of 878
-23.78% Feb 2013 - Jan 2016	+0.46%	+47.20% Nov 1971 - Oct 1974	46.92% 412 out of 878
-18.92% Mar 2012 - Feb 2016	+2.70%	+46.36% Dec 1970 - Nov 1974	22.86% 198 out of 866
-19.35% Mar 2012 - Feb 2016	+0.64%	+37.46% Dec 1970 - Nov 1974	45.38% 393 out of 866
-15.55% Mar 2011 - Feb 2016	+3.60%	+38.26% Dec 1969 - Nov 1974	20.02% 171 out of 854
-16.36% Mar 2011 - Feb 2016	+1.15%	+30.44% Dec 1969 - Nov 1974	40.75% 348 out of 854
-14.44% May 2014 - Apr 2020	+4.08%	+30.05% Dec 1968 - Nov 1974	19.95% 168 out of 842
-15.14% May 2014 - Apr 2020	+1.36%	+23.56% Dec 1968 - Nov 1974	36.58% 308 out of 842
-12.54% Apr 2013 - Mar 2020	+4.28%	+24.24% Dec 1967 - Nov 1974	16.87% 140 out of 830
-13.20% Apr 2013 - Mar 2020	+1.52%	+18.59% Dec 1967 - Nov 1974	39.52% 328 out of 830
-12.11% Jul 2008 - Jun 2016	+4.39%	+21.09% Jun 1970 - May 1978	16.50% 135 out of 818
-13.07% Jul 2008 - Jun 2016	+1.39%	+15.56% Dec 1966 - Nov 1974	38.88% 318 out of 818
-11.66% May 2011 - Apr 2020	+4.69%	+20.70% Jul 1999 - Jun 2008	17.12% 138 out of 806
-12.57% May 2011 - Apr 2020	+1.67%	+17.88% Jul 1999 - Jun 2008	34.99% 282 out of 806
-8.78% Jul 2008 - Jun 2018	+5.62%	+19.85% Nov 1970 - Oct 1980	17.38% 138 out of 794
-9.86% Jul 2008 - Jun 2018	+2.89%	+14.75% Jul 1998 - Jun 2008	36.15% 287 out of 794
-9.09% Jul 2008 - Jun 2019	+6.91%	+19.05% Nov 1969 - Oct 1980	18.16% 142 out of 782
-10.19% Jul 2008 - Jun 2019	+4.20%	+13.40% Nov 1969 - Oct 1980	36.19% 283 out of 782
-10.22% Jul 2008 - Jun 2020	+7.38%	+16.90% Nov 1968 - Oct 1980	17.92% 138 out of 770
-11.23% Jul 2008 - Jun 2020	+4.50%	+11.62% Nov 1968 - Oct 1980	33.90% 261 out of 770
-6.36% Nov 2007 - Oct 2020	+7.41%	+15.01% Nov 1967 - Oct 1980	16.36% 124 out of 758
-7.53% Nov 2007 - Oct 2020	+4.30%	+11.56% Jul 1995 - Jun 2008	32.19% 244 out of 758
-5.90% May 2006 - Apr 2020	+7.68%	+13.65% Nov 1966 - Oct 1980	13.40% 100 out of 746
-7.20% May 2006 - Apr 2020	+4.69%	+10.05% Jul 1994 - Jun 2008	27.61% 206 out of 746
-4.90% Apr 2005 - Mar 2020	+7.65%	+12.84% Nov 1965 - Oct 1980	10.35% 76 out of 734
-6.44% Jul 2008 - Jun 2023	+4.82%	+9.40% Jul 1993 - Jun 2008	27.79% 204 out of 734
-3.98% Apr 2004 - Mar 2020	+7.74%	+11.80% Nov 1964 - Oct 1980	9.14% 66 out of 722
-5.86% Jul 2008 - Jun 2024	+4.69%	+8.81% Oct 1988 - Sep 2004	25.76% 186 out of 722
-3.91% Jul 2008 - Jun 2025	+7.84%	+12.09% Oct 1988 - Sep 2005	8.59% 61 out of 710
-5.80% Jul 2008 - Jun 2025	+4.58%	+9.46% Mar 1987 - Feb 2004	21.69% 154 out of 710
-1.52% Jan 2008 - Dec 2025	+7.57%	+13.42% Oct 1972 - Sep 1990	5.30% 37 out of 698
-3.48% Jan 2008 - Dec 2025	+4.33%	+10.00% Apr 1986 - Mar 2004	21.20% 148 out of 698
-1.11% May 2001 - Apr 2020	+7.35%	+14.78% Oct 1971 - Sep 1990	3.35% 23 out of 686
-2.97% Oct 2005 - Sep 2024	+4.09%	+10.57% Oct 1971 - Sep 1990	16.76% 115 out of 686
-0.68% Oct 2005 - Sep 2025	+7.34%	+14.54% Oct 1970 - Sep 1990	2.67% 18 out of 674
-2.72% Oct 2005 - Sep 2025	+3.94%	+10.22% Oct 1970 - Sep 1990	14.69% 99 out of 674
+1.01% May 1995 - Apr 2020	+7.21%	+12.30% Dec 1971 - Nov 1996	0.00% 0 out of 614
-0.63% May 1995 - Apr 2020	+3.99%	+9.32% Jul 1983 - Jun 2008	1.47% 9 out of 614
+1.18% Oct 1990 - Sep 2020	+7.52%	+11.24% Dec 1970 - Nov 2000	0.00% 0 out of 554
-0.68% Oct 1990 - Sep 2020	+4.55%	+7.64% Jul 1978 - Jun 2008	0.54% 3 out of 554

For full details, click here
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns

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