When holding the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~155 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 1214 months (from February 1871 to March 1972).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 1215 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.32%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-48.67%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 |
+1.32% |
+106.86%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
44.44%
819 out of 1843 |
-48.03%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 |
-0.23% |
+95.63%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
51.00%
940 out of 1843 |
-30.15%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 |
+0.32% |
+71.21%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 |
46.59%
853 out of 1831 |
-30.41%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 |
-0.32% |
+55.74%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 |
52.32%
958 out of 1831 |
-23.43%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016 |
+1.02% |
+58.15%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 |
44.04%
801 out of 1819 |
-27.11%
Feb 1918 - Jan 1921 |
-0.53% |
+46.93%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 |
53.55%
974 out of 1819 |
-18.79%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 |
+0.85% |
+46.71%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 |
40.84%
738 out of 1807 |
-26.55%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1921 |
-0.82% |
+37.38%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 |
55.56%
1004 out of 1807 |
-15.57%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016 |
+0.56% |
+38.19%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 |
40.17%
721 out of 1795 |
-23.16%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1921 |
-0.62% |
+29.70%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 |
54.48%
978 out of 1795 |
-13.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 |
+0.72% |
+30.58%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
42.57%
759 out of 1783 |
-17.16%
Feb 1915 - Jan 1921 |
-0.50% |
+22.67%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
55.41%
988 out of 1783 |
-12.41%
Aug 2008 - Jul 2015 |
+0.69% |
+25.06%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 |
39.92%
707 out of 1771 |
-13.75%
Mar 1916 - Feb 1923 |
-0.33% |
+17.81%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 |
53.92%
955 out of 1771 |
-12.35%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
+0.65% |
+22.92%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1979 |
42.30%
744 out of 1759 |
-13.43%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 |
-0.16% |
+15.94%
Oct 1982 - Sep 1990 |
51.62%
908 out of 1759 |
-11.65%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017 |
+0.57% |
+23.06%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1980 |
41.96%
733 out of 1747 |
-12.78%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017 |
-0.27% |
+17.89%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 |
52.60%
919 out of 1747 |
-8.73%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018 |
+0.45% |
+21.88%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1980 |
43.86%
761 out of 1735 |
-10.83%
May 1911 - Apr 1921 |
-0.30% |
+14.79%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 |
51.35%
891 out of 1735 |
-8.83%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 |
+0.33% |
+20.78%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 |
41.73%
719 out of 1723 |
-10.15%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 |
-0.04% |
+12.10%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 |
50.32%
867 out of 1723 |
-9.86%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 |
+0.41% |
+18.73%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980 |
42.90%
734 out of 1711 |
-11.11%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 |
+0.31% |
+11.08%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2011 |
48.68%
833 out of 1711 |
-6.25%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1930 |
+0.51% |
+17.57%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1990 |
40.38%
686 out of 1699 |
-8.95%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1930 |
+0.56% |
+11.69%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 |
46.85%
796 out of 1699 |
-6.52%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1931 |
+0.59% |
+16.47%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990 |
40.01%
675 out of 1687 |
-8.88%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1930 |
+0.47% |
+10.12%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
46.89%
791 out of 1687 |
-6.27%
Mar 1917 - Feb 1932 |
+0.66% |
+14.75%
Jun 1969 - May 1984 |
39.70%
665 out of 1675 |
-8.51%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1931 |
+0.43% |
+9.27%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 |
47.22%
791 out of 1675 |
-5.69%
Jun 1916 - May 1932 |
+0.72% |
+14.54%
Aug 1971 - Jul 1987 |
37.46%
623 out of 1663 |
-7.54%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1932 |
+0.50% |
+8.05%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 |
47.68%
793 out of 1663 |
-4.18%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1933 |
+0.61% |
+14.83%
May 1972 - Apr 1989 |
37.49%
619 out of 1651 |
-6.74%
Feb 1904 - Jan 1921 |
+0.37% |
+8.61%
Mar 1987 - Feb 2004 |
47.18%
779 out of 1651 |
-3.28%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1935 |
+0.57% |
+16.61%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990 |
34.11%
559 out of 1639 |
-6.12%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1930 |
+0.18% |
+9.42%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990 |
47.83%
784 out of 1639 |
-3.18%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1931 |
+0.58% |
+17.85%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 |
34.42%
560 out of 1627 |
-6.11%
Feb 1902 - Jan 1921 |
+0.15% |
+10.77%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 |
47.02%
765 out of 1627 |
-3.16%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1932 |
+0.67% |
+17.34%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 |
35.98%
581 out of 1615 |
-6.00%
Feb 1901 - Jan 1921 |
+0.11% |
+10.40%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 |
47.06%
760 out of 1615 |
-2.71%
Feb 1907 - Jan 1932 |
+0.64% |
+13.96%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1996 |
34.21%
532 out of 1555 |
-5.19%
Feb 1896 - Jan 1921 |
-0.03% |
+8.93%
Jul 1983 - Jun 2008 |
50.42%
784 out of 1555 |
-1.80%
Feb 1902 - Jan 1932 |
+0.52% |
+12.81%
Dec 1970 - Nov 2000 |
36.99%
553 out of 1495 |
-4.20%
Feb 1891 - Jan 1921 |
-0.08% |
+7.53%
Jul 1978 - Jun 2008 |
51.17%
765 out of 1495 |
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Historical Returns