Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 1214 months (from February 1871 to March 1972).

This means that every rolling period of 1215 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been -0.46% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.32% +106.86%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 		-48.67%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 		44.37%
811 out of 1828
US Inflation Adjusted -0.18% +95.63%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 		-48.03%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 		50.93%
931 out of 1828
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.39% +71.21%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 		-30.15%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 		46.37%
842 out of 1816
US Inflation Adjusted -0.28% +55.74%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974 		-30.41%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016 		51.98%
944 out of 1816
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.02% +58.15%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 		-23.43%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016 		44.18%
797 out of 1804
US Inflation Adjusted -0.53% +46.93%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974 		-27.11%
Feb 1918 - Jan 1921 		53.60%
967 out of 1804
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.80% +46.71%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 		-18.79%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 		41.18%
738 out of 1792
US Inflation Adjusted -0.86% +37.38%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974 		-26.55%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1921 		56.03%
1004 out of 1792
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.54% +38.19%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 		-15.57%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016 		40.51%
721 out of 1780
US Inflation Adjusted -0.63% +29.70%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974 		-23.16%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1921 		54.94%
978 out of 1780
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.68% +30.58%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 		-13.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020 		42.93%
759 out of 1768
US Inflation Adjusted -0.55% +22.67%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 		-17.16%
Feb 1915 - Jan 1921 		55.88%
988 out of 1768
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.69% +25.06%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 		-12.41%
Aug 2008 - Jul 2015 		40.26%
707 out of 1756
US Inflation Adjusted -0.36% +17.81%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974 		-13.75%
Mar 1916 - Feb 1923 		54.38%
955 out of 1756
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.57% +22.92%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1979 		-12.35%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 		42.66%
744 out of 1744
US Inflation Adjusted -0.23% +15.94%
Oct 1982 - Sep 1990 		-13.43%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016 		52.06%
908 out of 1744
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.49% +23.06%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1980 		-11.65%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017 		42.32%
733 out of 1732
US Inflation Adjusted -0.30% +17.89%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 		-12.78%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017 		53.06%
919 out of 1732
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.45% +21.88%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1980 		-8.73%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018 		43.95%
756 out of 1720
US Inflation Adjusted -0.27% +14.79%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008 		-10.83%
May 1911 - Apr 1921 		51.16%
880 out of 1720
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.33% +20.78%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 		-8.83%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 		41.33%
706 out of 1708
US Inflation Adjusted +0.08% +12.10%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980 		-10.15%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019 		49.88%
852 out of 1708
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.41% +18.73%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980 		-9.86%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 		42.45%
720 out of 1696
US Inflation Adjusted +0.35% +11.08%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2011 		-11.11%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020 		48.23%
818 out of 1696
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.51% +17.57%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1990 		-6.25%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1930 		39.85%
671 out of 1684
US Inflation Adjusted +0.61% +11.69%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008 		-8.95%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1930 		46.38%
781 out of 1684
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.59% +16.47%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990 		-6.52%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1931 		39.83%
666 out of 1672
US Inflation Adjusted +0.55% +10.12%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 		-8.88%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1930 		46.41%
776 out of 1672
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.66% +14.75%
Jun 1969 - May 1984 		-6.27%
Mar 1917 - Feb 1932 		39.88%
662 out of 1660
US Inflation Adjusted +0.45% +9.27%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008 		-8.51%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1931 		46.75%
776 out of 1660
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.72% +14.54%
Aug 1971 - Jul 1987 		-5.69%
Jun 1916 - May 1932 		37.38%
616 out of 1648
US Inflation Adjusted +0.53% +8.05%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 		-7.54%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1932 		47.21%
778 out of 1648
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.61% +14.83%
May 1972 - Apr 1989 		-4.18%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1933 		37.10%
607 out of 1636
US Inflation Adjusted +0.40% +8.61%
Mar 1987 - Feb 2004 		-6.74%
Feb 1904 - Jan 1921 		46.70%
764 out of 1636
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.60% +16.61%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990 		-3.28%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1935 		34.11%
554 out of 1624
US Inflation Adjusted +0.19% +9.42%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990 		-6.12%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1930 		47.35%
769 out of 1624
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.58% +17.85%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 		-3.18%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1931 		34.49%
556 out of 1612
US Inflation Adjusted +0.16% +10.77%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990 		-6.11%
Feb 1902 - Jan 1921 		46.53%
750 out of 1612
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.65% +17.34%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 		-3.16%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1932 		36.31%
581 out of 1600
US Inflation Adjusted +0.13% +10.40%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990 		-6.00%
Feb 1901 - Jan 1921 		46.56%
745 out of 1600
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Historical Returns page.