Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to June 2024 (~154 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024

Holding the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~154 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 1214 months (from February 1871 to March 1972).

This means that every rolling period of 1215 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to June 2024

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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been -0.52% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.32% +106.86%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973
-48.67%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009
44.29%
811 out of 1831
US Inflation Adjusted -0.16% +95.63%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973
-48.03%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2009
50.85%
931 out of 1831
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.32% +71.21%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974
-30.15%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016
46.45%
845 out of 1819
US Inflation Adjusted -0.28% +55.74%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1974
-30.41%
Mar 2014 - Feb 2016
52.06%
947 out of 1819
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +1.02% +58.15%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974
-23.43%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2016
44.11%
797 out of 1807
US Inflation Adjusted -0.51% +46.93%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1974
-27.11%
Feb 1918 - Jan 1921
53.51%
967 out of 1807
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.80% +46.71%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974
-18.79%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016
41.11%
738 out of 1795
US Inflation Adjusted -0.84% +37.38%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1974
-26.55%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1921
55.93%
1004 out of 1795
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.56% +38.19%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974
-15.57%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2016
40.44%
721 out of 1783
US Inflation Adjusted -0.62% +29.70%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1974
-23.16%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1921
54.85%
978 out of 1783
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.68% +30.58%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
-13.30%
May 2014 - Apr 2020
42.86%
759 out of 1771
US Inflation Adjusted -0.54% +22.67%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
-17.16%
Feb 1915 - Jan 1921
55.79%
988 out of 1771
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.69% +25.06%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974
-12.41%
Aug 2008 - Jul 2015
40.19%
707 out of 1759
US Inflation Adjusted -0.36% +17.81%
Dec 1967 - Nov 1974
-13.75%
Mar 1916 - Feb 1923
54.29%
955 out of 1759
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.57% +22.92%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1979
-12.35%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016
42.59%
744 out of 1747
US Inflation Adjusted -0.22% +15.94%
Oct 1982 - Sep 1990
-13.43%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2016
51.97%
908 out of 1747
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.53% +23.06%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1980
-11.65%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017
42.25%
733 out of 1735
US Inflation Adjusted -0.30% +17.89%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008
-12.78%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2017
52.97%
919 out of 1735
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.45% +21.88%
Nov 1970 - Oct 1980
-8.73%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2018
44.05%
759 out of 1723
US Inflation Adjusted -0.30% +14.79%
Jul 1998 - Jun 2008
-10.83%
May 1911 - Apr 1921
51.25%
883 out of 1723
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.33% +20.78%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980
-8.83%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019
41.38%
708 out of 1711
US Inflation Adjusted +0.00% +12.10%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1980
-10.15%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2019
49.97%
855 out of 1711
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.41% +18.73%
Nov 1968 - Oct 1980
-9.86%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020
42.50%
722 out of 1699
US Inflation Adjusted +0.33% +11.08%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2011
-11.11%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2020
48.32%
821 out of 1699
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.51% +17.57%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1990
-6.25%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1930
39.95%
674 out of 1687
US Inflation Adjusted +0.61% +11.69%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2008
-8.95%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1930
46.47%
784 out of 1687
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.59% +16.47%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990
-6.52%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1931
39.76%
666 out of 1675
US Inflation Adjusted +0.51% +10.12%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008
-8.88%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1930
46.51%
779 out of 1675
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.66% +14.75%
Jun 1969 - May 1984
-6.27%
Mar 1917 - Feb 1932
39.81%
662 out of 1663
US Inflation Adjusted +0.44% +9.27%
Jul 1993 - Jun 2008
-8.51%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1931
46.84%
779 out of 1663
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.72% +14.54%
Aug 1971 - Jul 1987
-5.69%
Jun 1916 - May 1932
37.49%
619 out of 1651
US Inflation Adjusted +0.53% +8.05%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008
-7.54%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1932
47.30%
781 out of 1651
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.61% +14.83%
May 1972 - Apr 1989
-4.18%
Feb 1916 - Jan 1933
37.03%
607 out of 1639
US Inflation Adjusted +0.40% +8.61%
Mar 1987 - Feb 2004
-6.74%
Feb 1904 - Jan 1921
46.80%
767 out of 1639
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.60% +16.61%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990
-3.28%
Feb 1917 - Jan 1935
34.05%
554 out of 1627
US Inflation Adjusted +0.19% +9.42%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1990
-6.12%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1930
47.45%
772 out of 1627
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.58% +17.85%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990
-3.18%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1931
34.43%
556 out of 1615
US Inflation Adjusted +0.16% +10.77%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1990
-6.11%
Feb 1902 - Jan 1921
46.63%
753 out of 1615
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +0.65% +17.34%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990
-3.16%
Feb 1912 - Jan 1932
36.24%
581 out of 1603
US Inflation Adjusted +0.13% +10.40%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1990
-6.00%
Feb 1901 - Jan 1921
46.66%
748 out of 1603
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Historical Returns page.