When holding the BMO Short Federal Bond (ZFS.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~14 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 54 months (from April 2019 to September 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 55 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
BMO Short Federal Bond (ZFS.TO) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-5.32%
Sep 2021 - Aug 2022 |
+1.36% |
+7.75%
Oct 2023 - Sep 2024 |
24.84%
40 out of 161 |
-11.62%
Jul 2021 - Jun 2022 |
-0.14% |
+6.01%
Oct 2023 - Sep 2024 |
54.66%
88 out of 161 |
-2.82%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+1.54% |
+4.17%
Oct 2022 - Sep 2024 |
24.16%
36 out of 149 |
-8.11%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
-0.20% |
+2.75%
Aug 2018 - Jul 2020 |
55.03%
82 out of 149 |
-1.68%
Aug 2020 - Jul 2023 |
+1.37% |
+2.77%
Feb 2018 - Jan 2021 |
23.36%
32 out of 137 |
-6.32%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
-0.39% |
+1.14%
Feb 2018 - Jan 2021 |
54.74%
75 out of 137 |
-0.39%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+1.23% |
+2.61%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2015 |
8.00%
10 out of 125 |
-4.50%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
-0.64% |
+1.18%
Feb 2011 - Jan 2015 |
72.00%
90 out of 125 |
+0.27%
May 2017 - Apr 2022 |
+1.12% |
+2.29%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 113 |
-2.87%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
-0.57% |
+0.80%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2016 |
77.88%
88 out of 113 |
+0.05%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+1.14% |
+2.14%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 101 |
-2.83%
Sep 2017 - Aug 2023 |
-0.53% |
+0.45%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2017 |
78.22%
79 out of 101 |
+0.14%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+1.24% |
+1.81%
Aug 2013 - Jul 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 89 |
-2.78%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
-0.45% |
+0.26%
Jun 2013 - May 2020 |
87.64%
78 out of 89 |
+0.27%
Aug 2015 - Jul 2023 |
+1.24% |
+1.71%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 77 |
-2.44%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023 |
-0.49% |
+0.38%
May 2012 - Apr 2020 |
85.71%
66 out of 77 |
+0.55%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2023 |
+1.10% |
+1.88%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 65 |
-2.03%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2024 |
-0.89% |
+0.46%
May 2011 - Apr 2020 |
83.08%
54 out of 65 |
+0.68%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2023 |
+1.00% |
+1.92%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 53 |
-1.81%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
-1.38% |
+0.27%
Jan 2011 - Dec 2020 |
77.36%
41 out of 53 |
+0.70%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023 |
+0.99% |
+1.69%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 41 |
-1.67%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023 |
-1.36% |
-0.11%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2021 |
100.00%
41 out of 41 |
+0.73%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2023 |
+1.02% |
+1.27%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 29 |
-1.53%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2023 |
-1.25% |
-1.03%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2023 |
100.00%
29 out of 29 |
+0.95%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2023 |
+1.20% |
+1.29%
Jan 2011 - Dec 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 17 |
-1.41%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2023 |
-1.07% |
-0.96%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2024 |
100.00%
17 out of 17 |
+1.33%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024 |
+1.35% |
+1.47%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 5 |
-1.01%
Aug 2010 - Jul 2024 |
-1.00% |
-0.82%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2024 |
100.00%
5 out of 5 |
BMO Short Federal Bond (ZFS.TO) ETF: Historical Returns