BMO Long Federal Bond Index ETF (ZFL.TO): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: May 1994 - June 2025 (~31 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: CAD
Inflation: Canada
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When holding the BMO Long Federal Bond Index ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~31 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 143 months (from December 2011 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 144 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

BMO LONG FEDERAL BOND INDEX ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 May 1994 - 30 June 2025 (~31 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1994/05 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -0.44%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BMO LONG FEDERAL BOND INDEX ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 May 1994 - 30 June 2025 (~31 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1994/05 - 2025/06)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

BMO LONG FEDERAL BOND INDEX ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 May 1994 - 30 June 2025 (~31 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-23.93%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+7.28% +29.76%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
20.39%
74 out of 363
-28.45%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+5.36% +27.60%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
27.00%
98 out of 363
-16.80%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2022
+6.90% +23.98%
Dec 1994 - Nov 1996
16.24%
57 out of 351
-21.18%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2022
+4.89% +21.54%
Dec 1994 - Nov 1996
25.36%
89 out of 351
-13.69%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+6.47% +21.90%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1998
12.09%
41 out of 339
-17.80%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+4.58% +19.94%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1998
16.52%
56 out of 339
-9.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+6.17% +19.37%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1998
11.93%
39 out of 327
-13.01%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+4.24% +17.37%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1998
13.76%
45 out of 327
-6.68%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2025
+6.67% +15.86%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1999
12.38%
39 out of 315
-9.98%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2025
+4.65% +13.92%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1999
15.56%
49 out of 315
-3.47%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2025
+6.96% +13.71%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2000
12.87%
39 out of 303
-6.43%
Jul 2019 - Jun 2025
+5.05% +11.62%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2000
14.19%
43 out of 303
-3.90%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+7.10% +13.01%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001
13.40%
39 out of 291
-6.71%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+5.18% +10.85%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001
14.43%
42 out of 291
-2.10%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023
+7.03% +11.93%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2002
11.83%
33 out of 279
-4.77%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023
+4.88% +9.74%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2002
13.98%
39 out of 279
-1.68%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2025
+6.83% +12.21%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2003
7.87%
21 out of 267
-4.28%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2025
+4.87% +9.95%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2003
14.98%
40 out of 267
-0.67%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+6.79% +11.65%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2005
3.14%
8 out of 255
-3.22%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+4.87% +9.49%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2005
15.69%
40 out of 255
-0.66%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+6.76% +11.97%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2005
1.65%
4 out of 243
-3.00%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+4.89% +9.70%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2005
14.81%
36 out of 243
+0.08%
Jun 2012 - May 2024
+6.86% +11.15%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 231
-2.22%
Jun 2012 - May 2024
+4.87% +8.99%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2006
14.29%
33 out of 231
+0.33%
Jul 2012 - Jun 2025
+6.83% +10.47%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2007
0.00%
0 out of 219
-1.96%
Jul 2012 - Jun 2025
+4.98% +8.27%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2007
11.42%
25 out of 219
+1.69%
Jul 2011 - Jun 2025
+6.95% +10.57%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2008
0.00%
0 out of 207
-0.62%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+4.96% +8.44%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2008
8.70%
18 out of 207
+1.80%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025
+6.54% +10.06%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2009
0.00%
0 out of 195
-0.53%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2025
+4.65% +7.89%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2009
2.05%
4 out of 195
+2.13%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+6.65% +10.02%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2010
0.00%
0 out of 183
-0.10%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+4.67% +7.93%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2010
0.55%
1 out of 183
+2.24%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2023
+6.69% +10.18%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2012
0.00%
0 out of 171
+0.03%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2023
+4.79% +8.05%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2012
0.00%
0 out of 171
+2.45%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+6.60% +10.23%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2012
0.00%
0 out of 159
+0.31%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+4.68% +8.08%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2012
0.00%
0 out of 159
+2.83%
Jan 2006 - Dec 2024
+6.47% +9.37%
May 1994 - Apr 2013
0.00%
0 out of 147
+0.64%
May 2005 - Apr 2024
+4.50% +7.30%
May 1994 - Apr 2013
0.00%
0 out of 147
+2.80%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2025
+6.26% +9.57%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2015
0.00%
0 out of 135
+0.61%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2025
+4.28% +7.60%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2015
0.00%
0 out of 135
+3.90%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+5.52% +8.36%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2019
0.00%
0 out of 75
+1.63%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+3.35% +6.40%
Aug 1995 - Jul 2020
0.00%
0 out of 75
+5.46%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2025
+5.98% +6.19%
Aug 1994 - Jul 2024
0.00%
0 out of 15
+3.27%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2025
+3.80% +3.96%
Aug 1994 - Jul 2024
0.00%
0 out of 15
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