BMO Long Federal Bond Index ETF (ZFL.TO): Rolling Returns

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Period: May 1994 - May 2025 (~31 years)
Currency: CAD
Inflation: Canada
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When holding the BMO Long Federal Bond Index ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~31 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 143 months (from December 2011 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 144 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

BMO LONG FEDERAL BOND INDEX ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 May 1994 - 31 May 2025 (~31 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -0.50%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BMO LONG FEDERAL BOND INDEX ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 May 1994 - 31 May 2025 (~31 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

BMO LONG FEDERAL BOND INDEX ETF (ZFL.TO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 May 1994 - 31 May 2025 (~31 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-23.93%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+7.28% +29.76%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
20.44%
74 out of 362
-28.45%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+5.36% +27.60%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
26.80%
97 out of 362
-16.80%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2022
+6.90% +23.98%
Dec 1994 - Nov 1996
16.00%
56 out of 350
-21.18%
Jul 2020 - Jun 2022
+4.89% +21.54%
Dec 1994 - Nov 1996
25.14%
88 out of 350
-13.69%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+6.47% +21.90%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1998
12.13%
41 out of 338
-17.80%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+4.58% +19.94%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1998
16.27%
55 out of 338
-9.27%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+6.17% +19.37%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1998
11.66%
38 out of 326
-13.01%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+4.24% +17.37%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1998
13.50%
44 out of 326
-6.12%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+6.67% +15.86%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1999
12.10%
38 out of 314
-9.49%
Jun 2020 - May 2025
+4.65% +13.92%
Jul 1994 - Jun 1999
15.29%
48 out of 314
-3.16%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+6.96% +13.71%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2000
12.58%
38 out of 302
-6.21%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+5.05% +11.62%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2000
13.91%
42 out of 302
-3.90%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+7.10% +13.01%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001
13.10%
38 out of 290
-6.71%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+5.18% +10.85%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001
14.14%
41 out of 290
-2.10%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023
+7.03% +11.93%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2002
11.51%
32 out of 278
-4.77%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2023
+4.88% +9.74%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2002
13.67%
38 out of 278
-1.28%
May 2015 - Apr 2024
+6.83% +12.21%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2003
7.52%
20 out of 266
-3.89%
May 2015 - Apr 2024
+4.87% +9.95%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2003
14.66%
39 out of 266
-0.67%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+6.79% +11.65%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2005
2.76%
7 out of 254
-3.22%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+4.87% +9.49%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2005
15.35%
39 out of 254
-0.66%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+6.76% +11.97%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2005
1.65%
4 out of 242
-3.00%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+4.89% +9.70%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2005
14.46%
35 out of 242
+0.08%
Jun 2012 - May 2024
+6.86% +11.15%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 230
-2.22%
Jun 2012 - May 2024
+4.87% +8.99%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2006
13.91%
32 out of 230
+0.36%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
+6.83% +10.47%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2007
0.00%
0 out of 218
-1.87%
Jun 2012 - May 2025
+4.98% +8.27%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2007
11.01%
24 out of 218
+1.71%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+6.95% +10.57%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2008
0.00%
0 out of 206
-0.62%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+4.96% +8.44%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2008
8.25%
17 out of 206
+1.94%
May 2009 - Apr 2024
+6.54% +10.06%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2009
0.00%
0 out of 194
-0.37%
May 2009 - Apr 2024
+4.65% +7.89%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2009
1.55%
3 out of 194
+2.13%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+6.65% +10.02%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2010
0.00%
0 out of 182
-0.10%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2024
+4.67% +7.93%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2010
0.55%
1 out of 182
+2.24%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2023
+6.69% +10.18%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2012
0.00%
0 out of 170
+0.03%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2023
+4.79% +8.05%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2012
0.00%
0 out of 170
+2.45%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+6.60% +10.23%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2012
0.00%
0 out of 158
+0.31%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+4.68% +8.08%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2012
0.00%
0 out of 158
+2.83%
Jan 2006 - Dec 2024
+6.47% +9.37%
May 1994 - Apr 2013
0.00%
0 out of 146
+0.64%
May 2005 - Apr 2024
+4.50% +7.30%
May 1994 - Apr 2013
0.00%
0 out of 146
+2.96%
Jun 2005 - May 2025
+6.26% +9.57%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2015
0.00%
0 out of 134
+0.79%
Jun 2005 - May 2025
+4.28% +7.60%
Feb 1995 - Jan 2015
0.00%
0 out of 134
+3.90%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+5.52% +8.36%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2019
0.00%
0 out of 74
+1.63%
Oct 1998 - Sep 2023
+3.35% +6.40%
Aug 1995 - Jul 2020
0.00%
0 out of 74
+5.50%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
+5.98% +6.19%
Aug 1994 - Jul 2024
0.00%
0 out of 14
+3.33%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
+3.80% +3.96%
Aug 1994 - Jul 2024
0.00%
0 out of 14
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