BMO High Yield US Corporate Bond CAD-Hedged (ZHY.TO): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1960 - June 2025 (~66 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: CAD
Inflation: Canada
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When holding the BMO High Yield US Corporate Bond CAD-Hedged (ZHY.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~66 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 70 months (from May 2003 to February 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 71 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

BMO HIGH YIELD US CORPORATE BOND CAD-HEDGED (ZHY.TO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1960 - 30 June 2025 (~66 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1960/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.29%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BMO HIGH YIELD US CORPORATE BOND CAD-HEDGED (ZHY.TO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1960 - 30 June 2025 (~66 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1960/01 - 2025/06)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

BMO HIGH YIELD US CORPORATE BOND CAD-HEDGED (ZHY.TO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1960 - 30 June 2025 (~66 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-28.59%
Dec 2007 - Nov 2008
+7.91% +44.82%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2009
13.42%
104 out of 775
-29.96%
Dec 2007 - Nov 2008
+4.71% +43.43%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2009
29.16%
226 out of 775
-14.84%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2008
+8.09% +31.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983
6.42%
49 out of 763
-16.69%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2008
+4.41% +26.45%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
25.29%
193 out of 763
-8.12%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2008
+7.76% +25.24%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
4.13%
31 out of 751
-9.87%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2008
+3.97% +22.29%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1994
23.70%
178 out of 751
-5.64%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2008
+7.87% +22.41%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1985
2.03%
15 out of 739
-7.45%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2008
+3.84% +17.15%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
17.32%
128 out of 739
-2.64%
Dec 2003 - Nov 2008
+8.02% +22.73%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
1.24%
9 out of 727
-4.59%
Dec 2003 - Nov 2008
+3.64% +16.42%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
12.24%
89 out of 727
+0.19%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020
+7.23% +20.21%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987
0.00%
0 out of 715
-2.56%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+3.50% +14.15%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1997
6.71%
48 out of 715
+0.49%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2008
+7.00% +19.39%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
0.00%
0 out of 703
-1.78%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2008
+3.70% +13.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988
5.41%
38 out of 703
+0.77%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+6.80% +18.11%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 691
-1.50%
Jul 2014 - Jun 2022
+3.84% +12.36%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
5.50%
38 out of 691
+0.65%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2008
+6.85% +16.42%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
0.00%
0 out of 679
-1.54%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2008
+4.09% +12.03%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
5.30%
36 out of 679
+0.71%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2008
+7.32% +16.74%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
0.00%
0 out of 667
-1.48%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2008
+3.97% +11.52%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1992
3.60%
24 out of 667
+1.20%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2008
+7.46% +17.31%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
0.00%
0 out of 655
-0.91%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2008
+3.95% +12.15%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.61%
4 out of 655
+1.83%
Dec 1996 - Nov 2008
+8.32% +17.31%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 643
-0.19%
Dec 1996 - Nov 2008
+4.14% +12.29%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.16%
1 out of 643
+2.37%
Dec 1995 - Nov 2008
+8.52% +16.19%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 631
+0.34%
Dec 1995 - Nov 2008
+4.15% +11.44%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1994
0.00%
0 out of 631
+3.42%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2009
+8.52% +16.06%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 619
+0.84%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+4.12% +11.59%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 619
+3.17%
Dec 1993 - Nov 2008
+8.62% +15.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 607
+0.87%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981
+4.06% +11.30%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 607
+3.68%
Jun 2007 - May 2023
+8.68% +15.26%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 595
+0.49%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+4.17% +11.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 595
+3.76%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2022
+8.77% +14.79%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1992
0.00%
0 out of 583
+0.68%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+4.25% +10.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 583
+3.77%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2022
+8.82% +15.05%
Jul 1975 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 571
+1.00%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981
+4.65% +10.05%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 571
+3.86%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+9.00% +15.19%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 559
+1.37%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981
+4.84% +9.54%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 559
+4.22%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+9.41% +14.41%
Jun 1975 - May 1995
0.00%
0 out of 547
+1.68%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+5.00% +8.74%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2001
0.00%
0 out of 547
+4.15%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022
+10.56% +13.38%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 487
+1.96%
Jun 1998 - May 2023
+5.68% +8.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006
0.00%
0 out of 487
+4.84%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+10.24% +12.18%
Sep 1970 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 427
+2.72%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+5.69% +7.21%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2011
0.00%
0 out of 427
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